Characteristics of a phase II study that predict for a positive phase III trial—A study of 383 clinical trials

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6604-6604
Author(s):  
S. M. Ueda ◽  
V. E. Sugiyama ◽  
C. Stave ◽  
J. Y. Shin ◽  
B. J. Monk ◽  
...  

6604 Background: To identify the characteristics of a phase II study that predict for a subsequent positive phase III trial. Methods: All phase II studies and subsequent phase III clinical trials on biologics in advanced cancers published from 1985 to 2005 were extracted. Chi-square test and logistic regression models were used for analyses. Results: 383 phase III clinical trials and their preceding phase II studies were identified. 183 (47.8%) phase III trials were “positive” and 200 (52.2%) were negative. 220 trials (57.4%) used biologics alone and 162 (42.3%) used a combination of biologics and chemotherapy. Over the study periods 1985–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000, 2001–2005, the percentage of phase II studies that led to positive phase III trials increased from 37.7% to 33.3% to 56.0% to 76.8% (p<0.001). The interval between the publication of phase II and III studies, 0.5–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20 years were also associated with the success of phase III trial, 55.6%, 42.2%, 32.6%, and 10.0%, respectively (p<0.001). Phase II studies from multiple rather than single institutions were more likely to have a successful trial (60.4% vs. 39.4%; p<0.001). The percent of successful trials from pharmaceutical companies was significantly higher compared to academic, cooperative groups, and research institutes (89.5% vs. 44.2%, 45.2%, 46.3%; p=0.002). The publication of the phase II studies in journals with an impact factor of 8 or greater compared to those less than 8 was also predictive (44.1% vs. 58.0%; p=0.024). Phase II studies with a lower attrition rate were also associated with a positive phase III trial (61.1% vs. 41.8%; p=0.025). On multivariable analysis, all factors, except for journal impact factor, were independent predictive factors for a positive phase III trial. Conclusions: In phase II biologic studies, characteristics such as larger number of patients, more recent year of study, multiple vs. single institution participation, shorter time period between publication of phase II to phase III trial, and lower rate of attrition were predictive factors of success in a phase III trial. Investigators need to be cognizant of these phase II study characteristics before designing phase III trials. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob J Mandel ◽  
Shlomit Yust-Katz ◽  
Akash J Patel ◽  
David Cachia ◽  
Diane Liu ◽  
...  

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4040-4040
Author(s):  
David Cucchi ◽  
Tobias Polak ◽  
Gert J. Ossenkoppele ◽  
Jacob M. Rowe ◽  
Elihu H. Estey

Abstract Reports of "positive" results in early phase trials as presented at ASH presumably herald therapeutic advances, or at a minimum, a larger, potentially confirmatory, randomized trial. However, the predictive value of an ASH abstract reporting positive results in AML for subsequent clinical utility seems low (Estey 2006, ASH). Furthermore, not all results presented at ASH are published in peer-reviewed journals, and selectively publishing positive results leads to publication bias. Moreover, truly negative studies may be scientifically more rigorous and accurate than positive studies given the unequivocal findings. The extent of publication bias is unknown as is the frequency with which positive or negative abstracts lead to subsequent investigation in phase III and the reasons why positive phase II studies might not progress to phase III. We downloaded all 2013 - 2015 ASH abstracts (N = 17,251) and evaluated all abstracts reporting phase II clinical trials (N = 371) of novel drugs and therapeutic regimens presented at ASH in these years, covering investigational treatments of MM, CLL, AML, DLBCL, MDS, NHL, ALL, CML, MCL, SLL, other lymphomas and POEMS. We first scored abstracts "positive", "negative" or "inconclusive". Criteria for a positive abstract were words/phrases such as "encouraging", "promising", "could represent a novel therapeutic option" and "warrants investigation in a randomized trial". Negative abstracts included terms such as "does not support further research" and "demonstrates no clinical activity". The remainder were scored as inconclusive. Using this approach, we scored 296/371 (80%) abstracts as positive, 37/371 (10%) as negative, and 38/371 (10%) as inconclusive. 292/371 abstracts (79%) were published in peer-reviewed journals. The abstract conclusion (positive, negative or inconclusive) was not associated with publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Most frequently, studies were published in Blood (34/292 [11.6%]) and British Journal of Haematology (39/292 [13.4%]) . In Blood, 91% (31/34) of the studies were positive. British Journal of Haematology published significantly more negative studies than Blood (26%, Fisher Exact p = 0.02). Abstracts reporting studies with larger sample sizes tended to be published more often (p = 0.066). Differences exist between the abstract conclusion and later peer-reviewed publications. Of positive ASH abstracts, 6% changed to a negative conclusion in the peer-reviewed publication. Similarly, 6.5% of the initial negative abstract later reversed to a positive conclusion. 53% of positive abstracts did not lead to phase III studies, as registered on clinicaltrials.gov. Subsequently, regimens described in positive peer-reviewed publications did not proceed to phase III research in 48%. To explore why, we sent questionnaires to the first and/or last authors of positive studies not prompting phase III trials. 52% responded. Failure of positive phase II trials to proceed to phase III was due to the decision by the pharmaceutical company to halt clinical investigation (44%), lack of any intent to study the drug in phase III in the first place (40%), insufficient funding (35%), insufficient efficacy (despite the "positive" abstract; 33%) and safety concerns (4%) (Figure). Additional reasons for not proceeding to phase III were the availability of newer regimens, the rarity of the disease, or when regulatory approval had already been obtained after phase II. In conclusion, "positive" and "negative" ASH abstracts are published as full papers equally often, although the positive ones may be published more often in journals with higher "impact factors". More than half of the regimens presented in positive ASH abstracts remain unevaluated in randomized phase III trials. A separate problem is the likely tendency to disproportionately submit (and/or accept) positive, rather than negative, studies to ASH in the first place. We believe our findings raise issues in clinical research that may not be in the best interest of patients. This demands more consideration than it currently receives. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Ossenkoppele: Astellas: Consultancy, Honoraria; Agios: Consultancy, Honoraria; Abbvie, AGIOS, BMS/Celgene Astellas,AMGEN, Gilead,Servier,JAZZ,Servier Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria; BMS/Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria; Jazz: Consultancy, Honoraria; Servier: Consultancy, Honoraria; Gilead: Consultancy, Honoraria. Rowe: Biosight Inc.: Consultancy.


2007 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
JF Thorpe ◽  
S Jain ◽  
TH Marczylo ◽  
AJ Gescher ◽  
WP Steward ◽  
...  

INTRODUCTION Prostate cancer is an excellent target for chemoprevention strategies; given its late age of onset, any delay in carcinogenesis would lead to a reduction in its incidence. This article reviews all the completed and on-going phase III trials in prostate cancer chemoprevention. PATIENTS AND METHODS All phase III trials of prostate cancer chemoprevention were identified within a Medline search using the keywords ‘clinical trial, prostate cancer, chemoprevention’. RESULTS In 2003, the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) became the first phase III clinical trial of prostate cancer prevention. This landmark study was terminated early due to the 24.8% reduction of prostate cancer prevalence over a 7-year period in those men taking the 5α-reductase inhibitor, finasteride. This article reviews the PCPT and the interpretation of the excess high-grade prostate cancer (HGPC) cases in the finasteride group. The lack of relationship between cumulative dose and the HGPC cases, and the possible sampling error of biopsies due to gland volume reduction in the finasteride group refutes the suggestion that this is a genuine increase in HGPC cases. The other on-going phase III clinical trials of prostate cancer chemoprevention – the REDUCE study using dutasteride, and the SELECT study using vitamin E and selenium – are also reviewed. CONCLUSIONS At present, finasteride remains the only intervention shown in long-term prospective phase III clinical trials to reduce the incidence of prostate cancer. Until we have the results of trials using alternative agents including the on-going REDUCE and SELECT trials, the advice given to men interested in prostate cancer prevention must include discussion of the results of the PCPT. The increased rate of HGPC in the finasteride group continues to generate debate; however, finasteride may still be suitable for prostate cancer prevention, particularly in men with lower urinary tract symptoms.


2020 ◽  
pp. 106002802094352
Author(s):  
Mary B. Gadarowski ◽  
Rima I. Ghamrawi ◽  
Sarah L. Taylor ◽  
Steven R. Feldman

Objective: PrabotulinumtoxinA-xvfs (Jeuveau), a botulinum toxin type A, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the temporary improvement in the appearance of moderate-to-severe glabellar lines in February 2019. This article will review phase II and III clinical trials to assess the efficacy, safety, and clinical application of this novel, aesthetic-only drug. Data sources: A systematic literature review was performed using the terms “glabellar lines AND prabotulinumtoxinA” in the PubMed database. ClinicalTrials.gov was searched to identify nonpublished studies. Study Selection and Data Extraction: Articles written in English between November 2019 and June 2020 discussing phase II and phase III clinical trials were evaluated. Data Synthesis: By the primary efficacy end point on day 30, more patients achieved a greater than 2-point improvement on the Glabellar Line Scale (GLS) at maximum frown compared with baseline on day 0. The proportions of participants who responded to treatment with prabotulinumtoxinA were 67.5% and 70.4% versus 1.2% and 1.3% in placebo groups across 2 identical clinical trials ( P < 0.001). Patients receiving prabotulinumtoxinA experienced greater improvement in GLS at maximum frown on day 30 (87.2%) compared with onabotulinumtoxinA (82.8%) and placebo (4.2%; P < 0.001). PrabotulinumtoxinA was well tolerated across all studies. Relevance to Patient Care and Clinical Practice: This review provides a detailed analysis of the safety and efficacy of prabotulinumtoxinA-xvfs and includes special considerations to help guide patients and clinicians. Conclusion: PrabotulinumtoxinA is a safe and effective new addition to the repository of available treatments for the appearance of glabellar lines.


2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 380-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy Li ◽  
Rima Ghamrawi ◽  
Wasim Haidari ◽  
Steven R. Feldman

Objective: Risankizumab (Skyrizi), an interleukin-23 (IL-23) antagonist, was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in April 2019. This article will review phase II and III clinical trials to assess the efficacy, safety, and clinical application of this drug. Data Sources: A systematic literature review was performed using the terms “psoriasis AND risankizumab” in the OVID MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases. ClinicalTrials.gov was searched to identify ongoing or nonpublished studies. Study Selection and Data Extraction: Articles written in English between January 2000 and October 2019 discussing phase II and phase III clinical trials were evaluated. Data Synthesis: By the primary end point at week 16 in phase III trials, more patients achieved Psoriasis Area and Severity Index 90 receiving 150 mg risankizumab (72%-75%) compared with placebo (2.0%-4.9%, P < 0.001), 45 or 90 mg ustekinumab (42.0%-48%, P < 0.0001), and 40 mg adalimumab (47%, P < 0.0001). More patients achieved a static Physician’s Global Assessment score of 0 or 1 receiving 150 mg risankizumab (84%-88%) compared with placebo (5.1%-7.8%, P < 0.001), 45 or 90 mg ustekinumab (62%-63%, P < 0.0001), and 40 mg adalimumab (60%, P < 0.0001). Risankizumab was well tolerated across all studies. Conclusion: Risankizumab is a newly FDA-approved IL-23 inhibitor that shows particular promise in the treatment of plaque psoriasis. Based on this review, it is an effective and safe addition to the armamentarium of biologics that are currently available.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 5589-5589
Author(s):  
Syed Maaz Abdullah ◽  
Tariq Iqtidar Sadiq Syed ◽  
Muhammad Salman Faisal ◽  
Awais Ijaz ◽  
Syeda Sabeeka Batool ◽  
...  

Introduction: About 60% newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) cases are above age of 60 years. The paucity of studies exclusively targeting management of frail patients has led to persistence of therapeutic uncertainties. With data on more than ten thousand patients, purpose of this review is to summarize the available therapeutic options with emphasis on recent advances for treatment of frail and elderly, transplant ineligible NDMM patients. Methods: We performed a comprehensive literature search on June 1st, 2019 on PubMed, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov. We used the MeSH terms: 'Multiple Myeloma' and 'Frail Elderly', with associated entry words. Search yielded 71 studies regarding our topic of interest. Following PRISMA guidelines and subsequent screening by two reviewers, we shortlisted 19 ongoing/completed studies (n=10297) and included data from these studies in our systematic review. Results: Two/Three Drug regimens: Among the two drug regimens [Table 1], Lenalidomide (R) and Dexamethasone (D) (RD) combination has been most widely studied (n=1445). RD yielded objective response rate (ORR) of 81.3%, complete response (CR) or above of 24.9% and progression free survival (PFS) of 31.9 months in a phase III trial (Usmani, 2019) (n=369). Facon et al. (2019) [n=368] used Daratumumab (Dara)+R+D (DaraRD) which exhibited the best response overall with an ORR of 92.9%, CR of 47.6%, VGPR of 31.8% while the PFS was not reached till study end point. However, >grade 3 neutropenia developed in 50% patients. Three-drug regimen of Bortezomib(V)+Melphalan(M)+Prednisolone(P) (VMP) has been the most widely studied regimen (n=1059) in four phase II/III clinical trials. In a phase II trial (Kizaki, 2016) (n=87), VMP yielded a PFS of 36 months and CR of 25%. In a Phase II trial by Larocca et al (2016, n=148), 3 cohorts (VP, V+ Cyclophosphamide (C) +P and VMP respectively) were studied. Best response was achieved by VMP with ORR of 86%, PFS of 17.1 months and CR of 14%, compared with VCP (ORR=67%, PFS=15.2 months and CR=2%) and VP (ORR=64%, PFS=14 months, CR=8%). However, the discontinuation rate (DR) due to AEs for VMP was relatively high (20%). A phase III trial (San-Miguel, 2018) (n=955) compared Carfilzomib(K)+M+P (KMP) against VMP. Median PFS was found to be 22.3 months with KMP Vs 22.1 months with VMP. Grade ≥3 AE rates were 74.7% for KMP and 76.2% for VMP. Thus, the results showed no significant difference between both regimens. Thalidomide (T) has also been used in three drug combinations in two phase II/III trials (n=667). Ixazomib(I)+T+D (ITD) in a phase II trial (Abildgaard, 2017) (n=120) revealed an ORR of 75% compared to ORR of 62% in a phase III trial (Benboubker et al, 2014) (n=547) using MPT. Notable >grade 3 AEs with ITD were infections (15%) and cardiac abnormalities (10%) while with MPT were >grade 3 neutropenia (45%) and infections (17%). A retrospective analysis by Facon et al. (2015, n=1517) comparing RD Vs MPT demonstrated that RD reduced the risk of progression or death by 21% compared to MPT in frail patients. 2. Four Drug Regimens: Four drug regimens have also been used in transplant-ineligible patients in two phase II/III trials (n=583). Mateos et al. (2015, n=233) conducted a phase II trial in which patients were treated with VMP+RD (VMPRD). 49 frail patients based on Age >80 years (IMWG criteria) had ORR of 68%, PFS of 25 months and CR of 10%, with a DR of 63% due to toxicity or informed consent withdrawal. However, in the ALCYONE trial (San-Miguel, 2017) (n=350), use of Dara+VMP (DaraVMP) resulted in ORR of 90.9%, ≥CR of 42.6%, VGPR of 28.6% and PFS was not reached till study end point. Furthermore, the DR due to AEs for DaraVMP was also lesser (4.9%). Various trials [Table 2] are being conducted to establish correlation of frailty scores with parameters of efficacy. Conclusion: Management of frail and elderly NDMM patients is challenging as there is need to individualize therapy for this group. Novel agents such as lenalidomide, bortezomib and daratumumab have shown promising efficacy when used as combination therapies with other conventional agents. Intensity of treatment and efficacy goals should be tailored to the functional capacity and tolerance of each individual patient. There is need for focused clinical trials for this group in terms of greater recruitment into clinical trials to establish better correlation between frailty status and efficacy, and consolidating evidence for improved patient care. Disclosures Anwer: In-Cyte: Speakers Bureau; Seattle Genetics: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 32-33
Author(s):  
Zahoor Ahmed ◽  
Karun Neupane ◽  
Rabia Ashraf ◽  
Amna Khan ◽  
Moazzam Shahzad ◽  
...  

Introduction: Daratumumab (Dara) is a human anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody approved for multiple myeloma (MM) treatment. Dara has a promising efficacy and a favorable safety profile in newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) patients. This study is focused on the efficacy and safety of Dara when added to the standard care regimen in transplant ineligible NDMM in phase III clinical trials. Methods: We performed a comprehensive database search on four major databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Clinicaltrials.gov). Our search strategy included MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) terms and key words for multiple myeloma and Dara including trade names and generic names from date of inception to May 2020. Initial search revealed 587 articles. After excluding review articles, duplicates, and non-relevant articles, two phase III clinical trials were included which reported overall response rate (ORR), and progression free survival (PFS) of transplant ineligible NDMM patients with Dara addition to standard care regimen. Odds ratios (OR) of ORR were computed and hazard ratios (HR) of PFS (along with 95% confidence intervals; CI) were extracted to compute a pooled HR using a fixed effect model in RevMan v.5.4. Results: A total of 1453 transplant ineligible NDMM patients were enrolled and evaluated in two phase III randomized clinical trials. Seven hundred and eighteen patients were in Dara group and 735 patients were in control group. Bahlis et al. (2019) studied Dara + lenolidamide (R) and dexamethasone (d) vs Rd in NDMM pts (n=737) in MAIA phase III trial. Similarly, Mateos et al. (2018) reported the role of Dara + bortezomib (V) + melphalan (M), and prednisone (P) vs VMP in NDMM pts (n=706) in a phase III trial (Alcyone). A pooled analysis of these phase III trials showed ORR (OR: 3.26, 95% CI 2.36-4.49; p &lt; 0.00001, I2 = 0%), and progression free survival (PFS) (HR: 0.53, 95% CI 0.43-0.65; p &lt; 0.00001, I2 = 0%). Achievement of minimal residual disease (MRD) negative status was significant in Dara based regimen as compared to control group (OR: 4.49, 95% CI 3.31-6.37; p &lt; 0.00001, I2 = 0%). Dara addition to standard care regimen (Rd and VMP) decreased the risk of progression/death to 42% (HR: 0.58, 95% CI 0.48-0.70; p &lt; 0.00001, I2 = 0%). The addition of Dara increased the risk of neutropenia (OR: 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.85; p &lt; 0.02, I2 = 44%), and pneumonia (OR: 2.25, 95% CI 1.54-3.29; p &lt; 0.0001, I2 = 37%) vs control group. However, decreased risk of anemia (OR: 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.85: p &lt; 0.002, I2=30%) was observed in Dara group vs control group (Figure 1). Conclusion: Addition of Dara to the standard care regimen for transplant ineligible NDMM achieved the surrogate end points with improved efficacy and MRD negative status with manageable toxicity. However, data from more randomized controlled trials is needed. Table Disclosures Anwer: Incyte, Seattle Genetics, Acetylon Pharmaceuticals, AbbVie Pharma, Astellas Pharma, Celegene, Millennium Pharmaceuticals.: Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. TPS2103-TPS2103 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Reardon ◽  
James J. Vredenburgh ◽  
Annick Desjardins ◽  
Ronald G. Steis ◽  
Erin M. Dunbar ◽  
...  

TPS2103 Background: EGFRvIII is a constitutively active tumorigenic deletion mutation of EGFR. It is expressed in ~30% of primary GB where it is linked to poor long-term survival (Pelloski 2007). The investigational vaccine rindopepimut consists of the unique EGFRvIII peptide sequence conjugated to keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH), delivered intradermally (500ug with 150ug GM-CSF as an adjuvant). Remarkably consistent and promising results across 3 phase II studies in newly diagnosed, resected EGFRvIII+ GB (Lai 2011) represent a statistically significant improvement over a historical control cohort matched for major eligibility criteria (median overall survival [OS] = 24.4 - 24.6 vs. 15.2 months from diagnosis [m] and median progression-free survival [PFS] = 12.3 - 15.3 vs. 6.4 m). ACT IV, a phase III trial in this population, is ongoing. The immunosuppressive influence of residual/advanced GB presents a challenge to activation of efficacious antitumor immune responses. Anecdotal evidence (compassionate use cases, Sampson 2008) suggests that rindopepimut may induce specific immune responses and regression in multifocal and bulky residual tumors. Rindopepimut with BV, which inhibits VEGF and its immunosuppressive properties (including impaired maturation of dendritic cells and disruption of tumoral T cell infiltration [Johnson 2007, Shrimali 2010]) may further optimize EGFRvIII-specific immune response and antitumor activity. Methods: ReACT is a Phase II study of rindopepimut plus BV in patients (pts) with 1st or 2nd relapse of EGFRvIII+ GB. BV-naïve pts will be enrolled to Group 1 (n=70: randomized 1:1 to BV plus either rindopepimut/GM-CSF or control injection [low-dose KLH]) while BV-refractory patients will enter Group 2 (n=25: to receive BV plus open-label rindopepimut/GM-CSF). Concurrent with BV (10 mg/kg, q 2 wks), blinded treatment or open-label vaccine is given in priming phase (days 1, 15 and 29), then monthly until PD. Tumor response is assessed every 8 weeks, and patients are followed for survival after PD. Objectives are PFS at 6 months (primary), objective response rate, PFS, OS, safety, immunogenicity and elimination of EGFRvIII. ReACT opened to accrual in December 2011 (NCT01498328).


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