scholarly journals Deposit Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from the US Banking Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (1) ◽  
pp. 169-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Egan ◽  
Ali Hortaçsu ◽  
Gregor Matvos

We develop a structural empirical model of the US banking sector. Insured depositors and run-prone uninsured depositors choose between differentiated banks. Banks compete for deposits and endogenously default. The estimated demand for uninsured deposits declines with banks' financial distress, which is not the case for insured deposits. We calibrate the supply side of the model. The calibrated model possesses multiple equilibria with bank-run features, suggesting that banks can be very fragile. We use our model to analyze proposed bank regulations. For example, our results suggest that a capital requirement below 18 percent can lead to significant instability in the banking system. (JEL E44, G01, G21, G28, G32)

2021 ◽  
pp. 24-46
Author(s):  
João Rafael Cunha

The 1980s was one of the most eventful and consequential decades in the development of the US financial system. During this decade, the regulatory framework established in response to the Great Depression started to be dismantled. These regulatory changes were a key driving force behind the transformation of the banking sector. Moreover, the end of the decade saw the most serious banking crisis since the Great Depression. This pattern of deregulation and crises, which started in the 1980s, has continued until the present. Thus, it is worth study this period in greater detail and the consequences it has had for the US banking and financial system. The chapter argues that the deregulatory process that started in the 1980s in the banking industry in the United States has changed the profile of this sector. Between the Great Depression and the 1980s, the banking sector in the United States was a stable, yet not competitive sector. The financial deregulation of the 1980s changed this sector to a competitive, yet unstable one. This deregulatory process occurred mostly as a response to the economic conditions of the 1970s.


2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 198-210
Author(s):  
Sudha Narayanan ◽  
Nirupam Mehrotra

Executive Summary In the past decade, farm loan waivers have become a policy instrument to alleviate the financial distress of farmers. Despite agreement on the theoretical rationale for such debt forgiveness and its deep contextual relevance, many fear that in the long run, loan waivers might vitiate the repayment culture in the farm sector and undermine the financial status of banks. At present, critiques of large-scale loan waivers rest on limited evidence. This article reviews and synthesizes existing research and available data on the implications of loan waivers, especially for the flow of credit to farmers from banks. On most of the issues, such as farmer well-being and repayment culture, there seems to be mixed evidence on the consequences of debt waivers. Credible evidence on macroeconomic implications is limited, mainly on account of methodological challenges. This article concludes that even if loan waivers are an inappropriate strategy to support farm incomes in sustainable ways, the wide-ranging negative impacts on the formal banking sector are perhaps overstated. A more fruitful approach would be to focus on whether loan waivers can be designed to reduce the possible negative consequences for the formal banking system as well as for macroeconomic system. The article identifies three possible instruments—loan insurance products that will help banks cope with the consequences of large-scale defaults. Second, to explore the creation of a distress fund that will cushion state finances, should there be a need for debt waivers. Third, it would be useful to consider the operation of debt relief commissions to have an ongoing process for debt waivers.


Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2055
Author(s):  
Faisal Alqahtani ◽  
Nader Trabelsi ◽  
Nahla Samargandi ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

This study investigates the structure of the tail dependence between the United States (US) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors for the period February 2010 to July 2017. Conditional value at risk and conditional diversification benefits are calculated. The GCC banking sectors show lower tail dependence with the US banking sector. This is confirmed by the fact that GCC banking sectors receive higher downside risk spillover from the US banking system during downside market movements compared to upside risk spillover effects. Interestingly, an equally weighted portfolio of US and GCC banking stocks can provide relatively higher diversification benefits. These findings have implications for portfolio diversification, asset allocation and hedging strategies.


2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110267
Author(s):  
Nandita Mishraz ◽  
Shruti Ashok ◽  
Deepak Tandon

Financial distress is a socially and economically significant issue that affects almost every firm across the world. Predicting financial distress in the banking industry can substantially aid in the reduction of losses and can help avoid misallocation of banks’ financial resources. Models for financial distress prediction of banks are being increasingly employed as important tools to identify early warning signals for the whole banking system. This study attempts to forecast the financial distress of commercial banks by developing a bankruptcy prediction model for banks. The sample size for the study is 75 Indian banks. Logistic, linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models have been applied on the last 5 years’ (2015–2019) data of these banks. Data analysis results reveal the logistic and LDA models exhibiting similar prediction accuracy. The results of the ANN prediction model exhibit better prediction accuracy. It is expected that the results of this study will be useful for managers, depositors, regulatory bodies and shareholders to better manage their interests in the banking sector of the country.


2018 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-151
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Zusammenfassung: Das Papier beleuchtet die Hauptgründe, die der sinkenden Rentabilität des europäischen Bankensektors im Vergleich zum US-amerikanischen zugrunde liegen. Sie unterstreicht insbesondere die Rolle niedriger Zinsen, geringerer Konzentration, strengerer Regulierung und des Fehlens eines tiefen und liquiden Kapitalmarktes. Ein stärkeres europäisches Bankensystem erfordert echte gesamteuropäische Banken und eine echte Kapitalmarktunion. Summary: The paper assesses the main factors underlying the decreasing profitability in the European banking sector, in comparison with the US. It underscores in particular the role of low interest rates, lower concentration,tighter regulation and the absence of a deep and liquid capital market. A stronger European banking system requires true pan-European banks and a true capital market union.


Author(s):  
Haider H. Dipheal Shubbar ◽  

This article discusses the methodology the Central Bank of Iraq developed to assess the financial stability of commercial banks. This topic is relevant because, in modern economic conditions, the Central Bank of Iraq is forced to tighten requirements to credit institutions. Banks use not only their own funds, but also the funds of the population, legal entities, so they must be reliable and stable. Financial stability directly characterises the reliability of banks, so it must be strictly controlled. The Central Bank of Iraq has created its own methodology for assessing the financial stability of the banking sector. Its use should improve the quality of the created banking system development strategies and the financial monitoring of these strategies’ implementation. The Iraqi banking sector has a high level of capital adequacy, which helps to reduce the likelihood of financial distress in it.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (82) ◽  
pp. 69-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Paule-Vianez ◽  
Milagros Gutiérrez-Fernández ◽  
José Luis Coca-Pérez

Purpose The purpose of this study is to construct the first short-term financial distress prediction model for the Spanish banking sector. Design/methodology/approach The concept of financial distress covers a range of different types of financial problems, in addition to bankruptcy, which is not common in the sector. The methodology used to predict financial problems was artificial neural networks using traditional financial variables according to the capital, assets, management, earnings, liquidity and sensibility system, as well as a series of macroeconomic variables, the impact of which has been proven in a number of studies. Findings The results obtained show that artificial neural networks are a highly suitable method for studying financial distress in Spanish credit institutions and for predicting all cases in which an entity has short-term financial problems. Originality/value This is the first work that tries to build a model of artificial neural networks to predict the financial distress in the Spanish banking system, grouping under the concept of financial distress, apart from bankruptcy, other financial problems that affect the viability of these entities.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-146
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Suchkova ◽  
Kseniya Masterovenko

The article reviews the methodological basis of macroprudential stress-testing used as a quantitative tool to analyze and forecast financial stability. This tool has been actively used by regulators world wide especially after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. We analyze the experience of macroprudential stress-testing of the US and EU banking sector with a particular focus on the Bank of Russia methodology. Using general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis of literature, the authors examine various aspects of macroprudential stress-testing. The result of this work is a review of empirical studies on macroprudential stress-testing and the analysis of its practical implementation in Russia and abroad.


Author(s):  
Ulrich Theobald

East Asian monetary systems were traditionally based on commodity monies, the most famous of which were round copper coins (Cash) with a square central hole, and silver ingots (Tael, from around 1000 ce). While issue of the former was in the hand of the state, silver bars were privately produced and controlled. The Tael nonetheless served as a unit of account also in government ledgers. China was the first nation worldwide to use paper money backed by bullion reserve (c. 1000–1500), but fiat monies were not readily accepted by markets. Gold coins were exclusively used in Japan from circa 1600. With the discovery of Mexican silver, China and Japan became part of the silver-based world economy. Japan adopted the Gold Standard in 1897 and gained access to the world’s financial markets, while China’s currency landscape, even after modernization, remained fragmented and decentralized. With a favorable exchange rate against the US$, Japan recovered after World War II. The US$ devaluation in the Plaza Accord 1985 did not stop that boom. Excessive loans induced the asset price bubble of 1987. In the “lost decade” until 2000, the Bank of Japan pursued a volatile monetary policy, so in 1998 it was necessary to induce liberalization of the banking sector. Reform in the financial sector was also begun in South Korea after the Asian Crisis of 1997. The Chinese policy of Reform and Opening in 1978 first led to inflation and then to undervaluation of the Renminbi (Yuan), which supported the unique economic growth. The currency was made convertible in 1996 and was in 2005 pegged to a basket of foreign currencies. China’s banking system remains underdeveloped and suffers from the burden of indebted state-owned enterprises. China has accumulated huge amounts of foreign exchange. The RMB might become an anchor currency of a financial regionalism.


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