scholarly journals Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Haltiwanger ◽  
Henry R. Hyatt ◽  
Lisa B. Kahn ◽  
Erika McEntarfer
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Search Theory ◽  
Young Firms ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Worker Reallocation

We study whether workers progress up firm wage and size job ladders, and the cyclicality of this movement. Search theory predicts that workers should flow toward larger, higher paying firms. However, we see little evidence of a firm size ladder, partly because small, young firms poach workers from all other businesses. In contrast, we find strong evidence of a firm wage ladder that is highly procyclical. During the Great Recession, this firm wage ladder collapsed, with net worker reallocation to higher wage firms falling to zero. The earnings consequences from this lack of upward progression are sizable. (JEL D22, E24, E32, J31, J63, J64, L25)

scholarly journals Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (237) ◽  
Author(s):  
Szilard Benk ◽  
Max Gillman
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Shock Period ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Oil Shock

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970’s oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.

scholarly journals Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Ayres ◽  
Gajendran Raveendranathan
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Young Firms ◽  
Collateral Constraint ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Productivity Shock ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
Firm Entry And Exit

We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown shocks generate larger changes in firm entry and exit. The credit shock accounts for lower entry, higher exit, and concentration of exit among young firms during the Great Recession. The lockdown shocks predict a large fall in entry and rise in exit followed by a sharp rebound. In both recessions, changes in entry and exit account for 10-20 percent of the fall in output and hours. Finally, we discuss how the modeling of potential entrants matters for the quantitative results.

scholarly journals Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 584-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J Davis ◽  
R. Jason Faberman ◽  
John C Haltiwanger
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Search Theory ◽  
Generalized Function ◽  
Labor Turnover ◽  
Matching Function ◽  
Filling Rate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Job Openings ◽  
Labor Search ◽  
Using Data

We measure job-filling rates and recruiting intensity per vacancy at the national and industry levels from January 2001 to September 2011 using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Industry-level movements in these variables are at odds with implications of the standard matching function in labor search theory but consistent with a generalized function that incorporates an important role for recruiting intensity. Construction makes up less than five percent of employment but accounts for more than 40 percent of the large swings in the job-filling rate during and after the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Estimating Hysteresis Effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (058) ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Francesco Furlanetto ◽  
◽  
Antoine Lepetit ◽  
Ørjan Robstad ◽  
Juan Rubio-Ramírez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Permanent Effect

In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.

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