The Long-Predicted Failure of the Post-Bretton Woods “Non-System”

The monetary system implemented at Bretton Woods in 1944 made the US dollar the centre of the world economic system, with 43 other countries' currencies linked to it via fixed exchange rates. However, once the US government broke its promise to redeem dollars in gold at $35 per ounce on August 15, 1971, expansion of the supply of dollars was no longer constrained, and like many currencies before it, the lack of monetary discipline led to inflation through which the value of the dollar has fallen by about 98%. The “oil shock” of the 1970s led to the introduction of the “petro-dollar” system whereby Saudi Arabia, then the largest oil producer, agreed to accept only US dollars in payment for its oil in exchange for the US government's pledge to defend it. This shored up demand for the fiat US dollar, enabling it to survive until its now approaching endgame.

Fateful Consequences: U.S.-Iran Relations during the Nixon and Ford Administrations, 1969-77

<p>This thesis analyzes the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations from 1969, when Richard Nixon came to office, through the early and mid-1970s when the Nixon Doctrine embraced Iran as the cornerstone of its national security architecture in the Persian Gulf and West Asia, to 1977 when Ford left office with U.S.-Iran relations in a state of disrepair. It discusses the factors—geopolitics, economics, Iranian nationalism, domestic politics, the rise of transnational entities like Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), rivalries between the Departments of Defense, State, and Treasury and personal ambitions—which damaged the relationship and contributed to the collapse of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran. It lays particular stress on the difficulties in resolving national security and conflicting economic interests in regards to Iran’s oil resources at time when U.S. dependency on oil from the Middle East increased. It places these conflicts in the context of a series of crises in the form of the 1973 energy crisis, the October War, Watergate, the OPEC oil embargo and oil shock. It explains that the inability or unwillingness of either side to resolve their policy differences resulted from the economic forces unleashed by the oil shock, the difficulties of reconciling strategic, geopolitical and economic goals, and the domestic political vulnerabilities of chief architects of the relationship—Presidents Nixon and Ford, Henry Kissinger, and the Shah Reza Pahlavi—at a time when Vietnam, Watergate and recession weakened the U.S. and the Shah faced the dangers of incipient rebellion, revolution and coup which he tried to suppress through the use of SAVAK, the secret police, and one-party rule. The thesis thus examines how the intrusion of economic concerns into cold war geopolitical calculations had fateful consequences, not only for U.S.-Iran relations, but for U.S. national security strategy, the survival of the Pahlavi regime, and stability in the Persian Gulf which resulted in a new U.S. reliance upon Saudi Arabia to ensure access to oil.</p>

Fateful Consequences: U.S.-Iran Relations during the Nixon and Ford Administrations, 1969-77

<p>This thesis analyzes the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations from 1969, when Richard Nixon came to office, through the early and mid-1970s when the Nixon Doctrine embraced Iran as the cornerstone of its national security architecture in the Persian Gulf and West Asia, to 1977 when Ford left office with U.S.-Iran relations in a state of disrepair. It discusses the factors—geopolitics, economics, Iranian nationalism, domestic politics, the rise of transnational entities like Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), rivalries between the Departments of Defense, State, and Treasury and personal ambitions—which damaged the relationship and contributed to the collapse of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran. It lays particular stress on the difficulties in resolving national security and conflicting economic interests in regards to Iran’s oil resources at time when U.S. dependency on oil from the Middle East increased. It places these conflicts in the context of a series of crises in the form of the 1973 energy crisis, the October War, Watergate, the OPEC oil embargo and oil shock. It explains that the inability or unwillingness of either side to resolve their policy differences resulted from the economic forces unleashed by the oil shock, the difficulties of reconciling strategic, geopolitical and economic goals, and the domestic political vulnerabilities of chief architects of the relationship—Presidents Nixon and Ford, Henry Kissinger, and the Shah Reza Pahlavi—at a time when Vietnam, Watergate and recession weakened the U.S. and the Shah faced the dangers of incipient rebellion, revolution and coup which he tried to suppress through the use of SAVAK, the secret police, and one-party rule. The thesis thus examines how the intrusion of economic concerns into cold war geopolitical calculations had fateful consequences, not only for U.S.-Iran relations, but for U.S. national security strategy, the survival of the Pahlavi regime, and stability in the Persian Gulf which resulted in a new U.S. reliance upon Saudi Arabia to ensure access to oil.</p>

The Conundrum of Oil Prices, Stock Returns and Exchange Rate

This study imperially investigated the impact of oil prices and exchange rate on stock returns over the period of demand driven oil shock from 2001 to 2008 and supply driven oil shock from 2009 to 2016. To further explore the variation due to frequency of data, the study used daily, weekly and monthly data. The data was analyzed by applying Johansen Cointegration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test and Impulse response function. The Johansen Cointegration and vector error correction models confirm the long run relationship between oil prices and stock returns in all six samples. In short run, oil prices and exchange rate are not associated with the changes in stock returns. However, during demand driven oil price shocks, results confirm bidirectional relationship between oil prices and stock return.

Design, Modeling and Ride Analysis of Energy-Harvesting Hydraulically Interconnected Suspension

This paper introduces a novel energy-harvesting hydraulically interconnected suspension (EH-HIS) to improve the riding comfort and road handling performance for off-road vehicles while harvesting the vibration energy traditionally dissipated into heat by the oil shock absorbers. To understand the system, we built a model of the off-road vehicle equipped with the EH-HIS and conducted the performance analysis. The system model is established based on the pressure drop principle and validated by commercial simulation software AMESim. The damping characteristic and energy harvesting performance have been investigated based on the mathematical suspension model. Further, a thorough analysis is implemented to compare the dynamic responses of the vehicle equipped with the traditional suspension and EH-HIS under different driving speeds and road classes. Results show that the EH-HIS system can provide tunable asymmetric damping from 3134 Ns/ to 7558 Ns/m, which covers most of the damping range of the off-road vehicles. The average regenerative power of the half EH-HIS system reaches 438 watts, and the corresponding hydraulic efficiency reaches 19%, at a vibration input of 2 Hz frequency and 30 mm amplitude. The ride analysis shows that the vehicle equipped with the EH-HIS system on the D class road has good handling stability and better ride comfort over the traditional suspension.

Organizing State Intervention in an Authoritarian State: From Fascist Import Substitution to French Developmentalism in Postwar Spain

The economics of the authoritarian regime of Francisco Franco in Spain are often narrowed to a bespoke form of fascism. This paper suggests that this regime’s rather inchoate economic regimes were in fact a series of experiments that blended varieties of statism and liberalism. Thus, a form of import-substitution industrialization colored by Italian fascist features (1939-1959) lasted fifteen years longer in Spain than in the country of importation. In contrast, a local version of French developmentalism (1964-1975) was largely in sync with what was being tried in France at the time. However, this French developmentalist template imbued with fiscal Keynesianism was layered with liberal economic projects, particularly in the monetary policy arena. But while fascist import substitution (the so called “autarky”) collapsed mostly due to its internal problems, Spain’s translation of French developmentalism was associated with economic growth and was only extensively damaged by the crisis of the global capitalist core ushered by the 1973 oil shock. Critically, while in the symbolic terrain of Spanish politics the liberal economic projects that accompanied the local translation of French developmentalism were always associated with reformist and even “dissident” elite circles, the stigma of developmentalism’ association with the core elites of authoritarianism removed developmentalism as a source of alternatives to the liberal economic reforms ushered by Spain’s transition to liberal democracy in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Shipping Bunker Cost Risk Assessment and Management during the Coronavirus Oil Shock

This research explores ways to develop a risk management strategy that enables shipping companies to reduce unnecessary fuel cost risks, fuel price fluctuations and improve financial management. Through the Monte Carlo method, the study makes use of the simulation of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model. First, the VaR of various shipping-fuel-cost combination over a ten-year period is simulated. Then, through the most appropriate probability distribution test, it is found that most of the VaR of shipping fuel cost combination are in Beta–Arcsine distribution. In other words, the high-frequency data are concentrated at both tails (minimum and maximum) with high volatility. Therefore, the best strategy is to install scrubbers on existing ships to purify their exhaust gas and choose natural gas-based marine fuel for new ships. This will benefit the shipping companies significantly more compared to the use of low-sulfur fuel and choosing forward bunker agreements. Bunker swaps and options of bunker prices to hedging the risk of bunker cost raised in the end of Coronavirus oil shock, the strategy could help achieve the goal of risk management in the sustainable supply chain.