scholarly journals Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-410
Author(s):  
Sydney C. Ludvigson ◽  
Sai Ma ◽  
Serena Ng
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Inequality Constraints ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
The Future ◽  
Identification Strategy

Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations. (JEL D81, E23, E32, E44, G14)

The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashoka Mody
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social Problems ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
European Project ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Right

This chapter describes two scenarios, the two possible ways in which the final act of the European project plays out. In the first scenario, European authorities remain confident that they have essentially been on the right track and they continue to make modest course corrections, which they believe will ensure a brighter European future. However, the elusive and frustrating pursuit of deeper economic and financial integration causes more economic and political damage. Setbacks and crises recur to test the euro and its accompanying political vision. In the second scenario, the pro-European vision, European authorities recognize the important truth that “more Europe” will not solve Europe's most pressing economic and social problems. They dismantle the economically counterproductive and politically corrosive system of fiscal rules and rely more on financial markets to enforce fiscal discipline. Paradoxically, the euro survives, not because it adds value but because it becomes largely irrelevant.

scholarly journals The future of financial markets and regulation: what strategy for Europe?

foresight ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Baptiste Gossé ◽  
Dominique Plihon
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Realistic Option ◽  
The Future ◽  
Unstable Environment ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose – This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe. Design/methodology/approach – First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends. Findings – Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world. Originality/value – Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment.

scholarly journals Development of banking sectors in Kosovo and Montenegro in the years 2000-2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-101
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kubiszewska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Stages Of Development ◽  
Planned Economy ◽  
Banking Markets ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
The Future

The article presents main aspects of the development of banking markets in two Balkan countries – Kosovo and Montenegro. Both of them are charaterised by similar recent history, both in political and economical fields. Their financial sectors had to be built almost from scratch. The author describes the stages of development of competition in the banking sectors, using the following ratios: performace, structure, liquidity. The data is based on the information achieved from Kosovar and Montenegral central banks. Comparison of their achievements are presented on the pentagon adopted from macroeconomy stability pentagon, introduced in Poland by Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research. The long way from centrally planned economy to market economy, in both countries, in both political and financial aspects has resulted in a successful transformation. The growing economic strength in Kosovo and Montenegro will allow their financial institutions to improve their performance and expand their activities in the future.

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

scholarly journals Forecasts, ethics and financial behaviour: Another reading of economic crises

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-13
Author(s):  
Miia Parnaudeau ◽  
Elisabeth Paulet
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Ethical Practices ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Financial Behaviour ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Economies

The forecasts of economic agents are not without influence on financial markets‟ fluctuations. The recent subprime crisis has shown that incorrect use of information available on the markets added to the creation of complex financial instruments can have major consequences, not only in financial terms, but also on the real economy. Based on a study of three European countries, France, Germany and the UK, the goal of this paper is to assess how more ethical practices among economic agents can reduce the volatility of financial markets and stabilise the business cycles. This should lead to greater stability for European economies. After discussing the various possible forms that the forecasts of economic agents can take, we will study their correlation with business cycles. The final section will be dedicated to formulating various hypotheses and scenarios for explaining speculative cycles and how to control them with more ethical practices.

scholarly journals Bail Financial Sharing (BFS): A Financial Subsystem of Rastin PLS Banking

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Electronic Devices ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Base System ◽  
The Future ◽  
Application Methods

To cover producers and consumers against future prices fluctuation risk, depositors can forward-purchase raw materials or products to be delivered at a specified time in the future through Bail Financial Sharing (BFS). Bail Financial Sharing is a subsystem of Rastin Profit and Loss Sharing (PLS) banking system, and in this regard, instructions, organization and application methods, and electronic devices and contracts are similar to the context defined in the Base System of Rastin PLS banking system. Bail Financial Sharing (BFS) enjoys from Bail Certificate innovation, which can play an important role in stabilizing and increasing efficiency of money and financial markets. Depositor (financer) receives digital Bail Certificate for this kind of participation, which is negotiable in the secondary Rastin Certificate market. Regarding the characteristics of this certificate and its clear substantial differences with futures derivative, it prevents unreal paper markets formation. The latest owner of the certificate is the owner of the commodity. Moreover, the depositor can ask the bank that the entrepreneur sells the commodity and pays the money –instead of commodity- to him at the end of the contract.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document