Projection bias in an aversive environment

Author(s):  
Sili Zhang
Keyword(s):  
2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1217-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Conlin ◽  
Ted O'Donoghue ◽  
Timothy J Vogelsang

Evidence suggests that people understand qualitatively how tastes change over time, but underestimate the magnitudes. This evidence is limited, however, to laboratory evidence or surveys of reported happiness. We test for such projection bias in field data. Using data on catalog orders of cold-weather items, we find evidence of projection bias over the weather—specifically, people's decisions are overinfluenced by the current weather. Our estimates suggest that if the order-date temperature declines by 30°F, the return probability increases by 3.95 percent. We also estimate a structural model to measure the magnitude of the bias. (JEL D12, L81)


2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1558-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Clegg ◽  
Brian McKernan ◽  
Rosa M. Martey ◽  
Sarah M. Taylor ◽  
Jennifer Stromer-Galley ◽  
...  

Perception ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Greene ◽  
George Pavlov

The Poggendorff effect is seen as misalignment of two obliques, or misprojection of one, when the obliques are placed outside a set of parallel lines. To understand better the mechanisms behind this effect, the orientation of the lines which are normally parallel was systematically manipulated. The results indicate that projection bias is affected by the orientation of either line, is at a minimum where the line is orthogonal to the oblique, and is maximal at small angles. This is in line with classic theories which attribute the illusion to misperception of angular size. However, such explanations presuppose that in order to be effective the induction line must be proximal to the oblique so that an angle can be formed. Results are reported which show that the angle formed by the oblique and a line placed at a distance from the oblique, serving as the target of the projection, follows an angular rule of effectiveness similar to what is seen when the line is placed directly in contact with the oblique. The underlying process is described as ‘angular induction’.


2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meghan Busse ◽  
Devin Pope ◽  
Jaren Pope ◽  
Jorge Silva-Risso

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