scholarly journals Country risk for emerging economies: a dynamical index proposal with a case study.

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-302
Author(s):  
Ernesto Mordecki ◽  
Andrés Sosa Rodríguez

We introduce a dynamical country risk index for emerging economies. The proposal is based on the intensity approach of credit risk, i.e. the default is the first jump of a point process with stochastic intensity. Two different models are used to estimate the yield spread. They differ in the relationship between the default-free instantaneous interest rate process and the intensity process. The dynamics of the interest rates is modeled through a multidimensional affine model, and the Kalman filter with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to calibrate it. The USD interest rates constitute part of the input of the model, while prices of relevant domestic bonds in the emerging market complete the input. For an application, we select the Uruguayan bond market as the emerging economy.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1069031X2110306
Author(s):  
Nilay Bicakcioglu-Peynirci ◽  
Robert E. Morgan

We investigate how strategic resource decisions—concerning slack resources and strategic marketing ambidexterity—influence the relationship between internationalization and firm performance of emerging market firms. Based upon the resource-based view, we synthesize two dominant, yet divergent, perspectives that explain the respective resource slack advantages and liabilities in the internationalization literature: the flexible capacity and the efficient capacity perspectives. We also explore the moderating role of strategic marketing ambidexterity which comprises a bundle of marketing activities covering both exploitation-dominant actions and exploration-dominant actions. We empirically examine our hypothesized relationships with data from a sample of 1,683 firm-year observations for the period between 2005 and 2018 and find that distinct forms of resource slacks have contrasting effects on the relationship between internationalization and performance. Our results provide strong evidence for positive moderation effect of unabsorbed slack resources and a negative moderation effect of absorbed slack resources on the internationalization-performance relationship. We also indicate nonsignificant moderating effect of strategic marketing ambidexterity, demonstrating that internationalization attains higher firm performance regardless of its exploration-dominant or exploitation-dominant strategic emphasis in emerging economies.


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 157-171
Author(s):  
Ahmet Niyazi Özker

In this study, we attempted to reveal the reasons for possible debt changes regarding the sensitivity of capital change indices in emerging economies to global financial risks and the meaning of possible correlation effects at the global level. Overcoming to Global economic and financial instabilities in emerging economies have required to take different fiscal measure have been aimed at balancing the rising interest rates and global financial change costs, which are caused by rising global priority costs. The external effects of global financial shocks in emerging economies led to a significant increase in global borrowing in these economies. In other words, in these countries representing emerging economies at different levels of development, they have also provided a reason for the inclusion of different financial and monetary policies in the process. Sensitivity to global financial shocks in emerging economies is related to the structural characteristics of countries and structural impact scales and correlations regarding which markets are affected by the needs. In this respect, it appears that the developments regarding the sectors, especially the capital flow, are meaningful in terms of indexes created by the periodic changes in the values of the current change. In this respect, in emerging economies, these shocks mostly emerge with effects giving different correlation results in countries that differ according to global crises and have other capital accumulations. The remarkable point in terms of the correlations determined here is that debt ratios and capital accumulation variations in emerging economies have put forth a significant correlation in a period of global financial shocks.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Eduardo Luis Montiel ◽  
Octavio Martinez

Learning outcomes These are the three most important learning outcomes: discuss the relevance of capital asset pricing model (CAPM) as the methodology to estimate the cost of equity for an investment in an emerging market; analyze the different alternatives to estimate country risk discussing the pros and cons of each. Consider the additional complexity in estimating the cost of equity, contrasting the perspective of a local, non-diversified investor with that of a multinational company operating in 39 countries. Case overview/synopsis The Chief Financial Officer of a business group has to determine the correct discount rate for an investment in a new hotel in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The group has traditionally used the same discount rate for all projects and is now presented with several alternatives by his team. Estimating the correct country risk adjustment for the project is an important challenge. He knows that there is no clear solution to this challenge that is accepted by all practitioners and academics, but he has to present a recommendation to the board. Complexity academic level The case study is designed for corporate finance, appraisal or international finance courses in both MBA and executive training programs. To discuss this case study, students are assumed to have been already exposed to the weighted average cost of capital and the CAPM. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 1: Accounting and finance.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Huang ◽  
Guangyu Ye ◽  
Jinbo Zhou ◽  
Tiantian Jin

Purpose This paper aims to reveal the influencing mechanism of the interaction between institutional environments in the home and host country on the accelerated internationalization of entrepreneurial enterprises from emerging economies (EE). The authors want to open the black box of home-country institutional environments’ moderating mechanism on the relationship between host-country institutional environments and accelerated internationalization. Design/methodology/approach The authors chose a massive interview method and case study method to answer this question. According to our standards, the authors chose four high-tech companies in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces as case study samples. During investigation in the four case companies, the authors collected print data of 150 pages and electric data of 3 pages. Then, the authors excavated concepts in data through open coding, axial coding and select-type coding and identified concepts’ dimensions and connections between them. Findings Well-developed home-country institutions can reduce the inhibitory effect of under-developed host-country institutions on the accelerated internationalization of entrepreneurial enterprises from emerging economies. Under-developed institutional environments in the home country are beneficial for entrepreneurial enterprises from EE to develop the institutional capability for entrepreneurial enterprises with stronger institutional capability from emerging economies. The inhibitory effect of under-developed institutional environments in the host country on their accelerated internationalization is weaker. The positive moderating role played by institutional voids in the home country on the relationship between institutional voids in the host country and the accelerated internationalization are mediated by the institutional capability of entrepreneurial enterprises from emerging economies. Research limitations/implications The authors just refined the definition of institutional capability and divided its dimensions. Issues such as operationalization of institutional capability and the development of measurement scale are also worthy for future quantitative research. Considering the inherent defect of case study and that these four case companies are from Chinese high-tech industry, the external validity our research may be limited. The theoretical model that was constructed generally captured the relationships between dual institutional environments, institutional capability and EE entrepreneurial firms’ accelerated internationalization decision. Future studies may use a large-scale sample to verify the all propositions the authors introduced to draw more steady and reliable empirical study results. Practical implications The conclusions have significant implications for governments in EE to construct friendly institutional environments for international entrepreneurship and for entrepreneurial firms to implement internationalization strategies. Social implications Policy makers should establish well-developed normative and cognitive institutional environment by cultivating global-orientated and open national culture and organizing experience exchange conference, thereby speeding up the implementation of internationalization strategies and further improving international competitiveness for a country. Originality/value First, the authors defined institutional capability as firms’ ability of establishing relationships with institution actors, adapting to institutional contexts, changing existing institutions or creating new ones to gain potential interests and suggested that it consists of three dimensions. Second, institutional voids in the home country positively moderate the relationship between under-developed institutional environments in the host country and the accelerated internationalization of entrepreneurial firms from EE. At last, institutional capability of firms negatively moderates the relationship between under-developed institutional environments in the host country and the accelerated internationalization of entrepreneurial firms from EE.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjarne Sorensen

<p>This article answers calls for research into the field of international entrepreneurship (henceforth IE) in the context of emerging economies. In doing so, the research simultaneously heeds appeals for greater methodological variety to broaden the scope of inquiry in the field of international business research. Drawing on internationalization and entrepreneurial process modelling theory, this multiple-case study provides unique insights into the phenomena of IE in emerging market settings. It elaborates upon the processes behind IE’s discovery of opportunities; it extends our understanding of IEs resource deployment; and it identifies sources of competitive advantages among IEs in emerging markets. Insights gained from this empirical study were translated into propositions corroborating, elaborating, and challenging existing theory and assumptions. Above all, this research questions our understanding of institutional and transaction cost theory in the internationalization processes of IEs.<br></p>


2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 233-239
Author(s):  
Xinwei Zheng

This study examines if common factors of liquidity can be determined by ownership structure measured by asymmetric information in an emerging market that has adopted an order-driven trading system. Using China as a case for the study, I select a broad sample of stocks from two separate Chinese stock exchanges to measure and analyse the relationship. My empirical evidence seems significant and pervasive. These findings about the Chinese stock market provide useful pointers for understanding commonality in emerging economies and shed critical light on a new dimension of the working of emerging markets


2015 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Olaberría

This paper studies the association between United States (US) long-term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). It finds that cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including interest rates in the US. In particular, higher US long-term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of sharp reversals of net capital flows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions and not necessarily with global factors such as US interest rates.


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.


FOCUS ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Hasanudin Hasanudin ◽  
Anugrah Kumaruza

The purpose of this research is to study the effect of interest rates, rupiah currency exchange rates, world gold prices, and the Dow Jones Index on stock prices of property and real estate companies with inflation as a moderating variable. This study uses a case study of 4 stocks, namely BSDE, CTRA, PWON, and SMRA with the research data period January 2014-December 2019. The analysis was carried out using the ARCH / GARCH model using the Eviews 10 application. The results showed that there were quite varied results regarding patterns of the relationship between the independent variables on the four stock prices studied. The most notable difference is in the PWON stock


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