Será que o brasileiro está poupando o suficiente para se
                        aposentar?

This article answers the question: how much wealth should a Brazilian accumulate along time to sustain his (her) consumption during retirement? Using a life-cycle model, we simulate scenarios for different household incomes, family size, and life circumstances, to obtain the additional saving effort needed by future beneficiaries of the Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS). Given the current high replacement rates, we show that more than 95% of the population needs no additional savings during their working age, because they will enjoy an increase in their “free” per capita income during retirement. In other words, surprisingly, a low voluntary saving rate is the right decision from the perspective of an average Brazilian that plans a smooth consumption, in the belief that current social security arrangements will persist. Were it not for the very high banking spread, it would be optimal for the average Brazilian to borrow in the working age to increase his (her) consumption level.

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Anomalies: Saving, Fungibility, and Mental Accounts

The Journal of Economic Perspectives ◽

10.1257/jep.4.1.193 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 193-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 398

Author(s):

Richard H Thaler

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Self Control ◽

Life Cycle Model ◽

Cycle Model ◽

Life Cycle Theory ◽

The Right ◽

Football Betting ◽

Better Than

Last New Year's day, after a long evening of rooting the right team to victory in the Orange Bowl, I was lucky enough to win $300 in a college football betting pool. I then turned to the important matter of splurging the proceeds wisely. Would a case of champagne be better than dinner and a play in New York? At this point my son Greg came in and congratulated me. He said, “Gee Dad, you should be pretty happy. With that win you can increase your lifetime consumption by $20 a year!” Greg, it seems, had studied the life-cycle theory of savings. The theory is simple, elegant, and rational—qualities valued by economists. Unfortunately, as Courant, Gramlich, and Laitner observe “for all its elegance and rationality, the life-cycle model has not tested out very well.” In this column, however, I focus on an assumption of the life-cycle model that has not received very much attention, but which, if modified, can allow the theory to explain many of the savings anomalies that have been observed. The key assumption is fungibility. This column will review a small portion of the empirical savings literature, with the objective of showing how violations of fungibility, and more generally the role of self-control, strongly influences saving behavior.

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FAITH Software Life Cycle Model for Forex Expert Advisors

Advances in Multidisciplinary & Scientific Research Journal Publication ◽

10.22624/aims/maths/v9n1p1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

D.A Oyemade ◽

D Allenotor

Keyword(s):

Life Cycle ◽

Software Development ◽

Life Cycles ◽

Life Cycle Model ◽

Cycle Model ◽

Software Life Cycle ◽

Investment Capital ◽

Lot Sizes ◽

Stop Loss ◽

Very High

The emotional stress and uncertainties associated with foreign exchange (forex) trading due to the high risk of losing the investment capital has left most forex traders in a state of indecision on the best methodology to apply for achieving long term profit. The provision of lot sizes, leverages, take profits and stop losses in forex trading implies that very high profit can be made within a very short time with the same capital, but at the same time, very high losses can be incurred. On one hand, this provision often prompts a set of traders to become greedy by increasing their take profit levels, lot sizes and leverages, which in turn increases their probability of losing out. On the other hand, the provision creates doubts and induces the fear of losses in some other set of traders. Consequently, these set of conservative traders employ the use of relatively small lot sizes, low leverages and low values of take profit and high stop loss levels. This in turn often results in a devastating effect on the investment capital due to lost opportunities and resulting losses. The problem of losses in forex trading effort is compounded by the fact that many programmers and developers of forex expert advisors do not adopt a software life cycle, having learned only how to write codes to program the trading platform. Furthermore, software engineering professionals who understand the import of software development life cycles soon discover that conventional software life cycles are not capable of effectively handling the complexity of the forex market. This paper models the human characteristics of greed, fear and doubt as manifested by traders in forex trading using selected expert advisors’ properties. It proposes Facts, Analysis, Implementation, Testing and Hope (FAITH) software life cycle model for Forex trading profitability to tackle the problem of indecision in the development of forex expert advisors. The proposed model was implemented on a live trading platform for a period of three months and compared with doubt, fear and greed approach to trading. The results showed that while a level of greed can be profitable, FAITH software life cycle produced more profitable results and can be adopted for forex trading. Keywords: Software Development Life Cycle, Expert advisors, Forex Model, Losses, Profit

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Accounting for the Rise in Consumer Bankruptcies

American Economic Journal Macroeconomics ◽

10.1257/mac.2.2.165 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 165-193 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Igor Livshits ◽

James MacGee ◽

Michèle Tertilt

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Credit Market ◽

The United States ◽

Income Shocks ◽

Life Cycle Model ◽

Cycle Model ◽

Heterogeneous Agent ◽

Working Age ◽

The Cost

Personal bankruptcies in the United States have increased dramatically, rising from 1.4 per thousand working age adults in 1970 to 8.5 in 2002. We use a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with competitive lenders to evaluate several commonly offered explanations. We find that increased uncertainty (income shocks, expense uncertainty) cannot account quantitatively for the rise in bankruptcies. Instead, the rise in filings appears mainly to reflect changes in the credit market environment: a decrease in the transaction cost of lending and in the cost of bankruptcy. We also argue that the abolition of usury laws and other legal changes were unimportant. (JEL D14, E44, G21, G28)

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