scholarly journals Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Correa ◽  
Patricio Foncea ◽  
Ruben Hoeksma ◽  
Tim Oosterwijk ◽  
Tjark Vredeveld
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Finite Sequence ◽  
Optimal Threshold ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Price Mechanism ◽  
Posted Price ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

The classic prophet inequality states that, when faced with a finite sequence of nonnegative independent random variables, a gambler who knows the distribution and is allowed to stop the sequence at any time, can obtain, in expectation, at least half as much reward as a prophet who knows the values of each random variable and can choose the largest one. In this work, we consider the situation in which the sequence comes in random order. We look at both a nonadaptive and an adaptive version of the problem. In the former case, the gambler sets a threshold for every random variable a priori, whereas, in the latter case, the thresholds are set when a random variable arrives. For the nonadaptive case, we obtain an algorithm achieving an expected reward within at least a 0.632 fraction of the expected maximum and prove that this constant is optimal. For the adaptive case with independent and identically distributed random variables, we obtain a tight 0.745-approximation, solving a problem posed by Hill and Kertz in 1982. We also apply these prophet inequalities to posted price mechanisms, and we prove the same tight bounds for both a nonadaptive and an adaptive posted price mechanism when buyers arrive in random order.

Prophet Inequalities for Independent and Identically Distributed Random Variables from an Unknown Distribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Correa ◽  
Paul Dütting ◽  
Felix Fischer ◽  
Kevin Schewior
Keyword(s):  
Stopping Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Secretary Problem ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Optimal Stopping Theory ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

A central object of study in optimal stopping theory is the single-choice prophet inequality for independent and identically distributed random variables: given a sequence of random variables [Formula: see text] drawn independently from the same distribution, the goal is to choose a stopping time τ such that for the maximum value of α and for all distributions, [Formula: see text]. What makes this problem challenging is that the decision whether [Formula: see text] may only depend on the values of the random variables [Formula: see text] and on the distribution F. For a long time, the best known bound for the problem had been [Formula: see text], but recently a tight bound of [Formula: see text] was obtained. The case where F is unknown, such that the decision whether [Formula: see text] may depend only on the values of the random variables [Formula: see text], is equally well motivated but has received much less attention. A straightforward guarantee for this case of [Formula: see text] can be derived from the well-known optimal solution to the secretary problem, where an arbitrary set of values arrive in random order and the goal is to maximize the probability of selecting the largest value. We show that this bound is in fact tight. We then investigate the case where the stopping time may additionally depend on a limited number of samples from F, and we show that, even with o(n) samples, [Formula: see text]. On the other hand, n samples allow for a significant improvement, whereas [Formula: see text] samples are equivalent to knowledge of the distribution: specifically, with n samples, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and with [Formula: see text] samples, [Formula: see text] for any [Formula: see text].

Convergence rates in the law of large numbers. II

1968 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 485-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. K. Rohatgi
Keyword(s):  
Convergence Rates ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Almost Sure Convergence ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Present Context ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Uniformly Bounded

Let {Xn: n ≥ 1} be a sequence of independent random variables and write Suppose that the random vairables Xn are uniformly bounded by a random variable X in the sense thatSet qn(x) = Pr(|Xn| > x) and q(x) = Pr(|Xn| > x). If qn ≤ q and E|X|r < ∞ with 0 < r < 2 then we have (see Loève(4), 242)where ak = 0, if 0 < r < 1, and = EXk if 1 ≤ r < 2 and ‘a.s.’ stands for almost sure convergence. the purpose of this paper is to study the rates of convergence ofto zero for arbitrary ε > 0. We shall extend to the present context, results of (3) where the case of identically distributed random variables was treated. The techniques used here are strongly related to those of (3).

A generalization of McDiarmid's theorem for mixed Bernoulli percolation

1980 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Hammersley
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Finite Sequence ◽  
Random Set ◽  
Percolation Probability ◽  
Open Path ◽  
Finite Set ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Infinite Set ◽  
Mutually Independent

Let G be an infinite partially directed graph of finite outgoing degree. Thus G consists of an infinite set of vertices, together with a set of edges between certain prescribed pairs of vertices. Each edge may be directed or undirected, and the number of edges from (but not necessarily to) any given vertex is always finite (though possibly unbounded). A path on G from a vertex V1 to a vertex Vn (if such a path exists) is a finite sequence of alternate edges and vertices of the form E12, V2, E23, V3, …, En − 1, n, Vn such that Ei, i + 1 is an edge connecting Vi and Vi + 1 (and in the direction from Vi to Vi + 1 if that edge happens to be directed). In mixed Bernoulli percolation, each vertex Vi carries a random variable di, and each edge Eij carries a random variable dij. All these random variables di and dij are mutually independent, and take only the values 0 or 1; the di take the value 1 with probability p, while the dij take the value 1 with probability p. A path is said to be open if and only if all the random variables carried by all its edges and all its vertices assume the value 1. Let S be a given finite set of vertices, called the source set; and let T be the set of all vertices such that there exists at least one open path from some vertex of S to each vertex of T. (We imagine that fluid, supplied to all the source vertices, can flow along any open path; and thus T is the random set of vertices eventually wetted by the fluid). The percolation probabilityis defined to be the probability that T is an infinite set.

Existence and positivity of the limit in processes with a branching structure

1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-138
Author(s):  
M. P. Quine ◽  
W. Szczotka
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Natural Generalization ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Urn Model ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

We define a stochastic process {Xn} based on partial sums of a sequence of integer-valued random variables (K0,K1,…). The process can be represented as an urn model, which is a natural generalization of a gambling model used in the first published exposition of the criticality theorem of the classical branching process. A special case of the process is also of interest in the context of a self-annihilating branching process. Our main result is that when (K1,K2,…) are independent and identically distributed, with mean a ∊ (1,∞), there exist constants {cn} with cn+1/cn → a as n → ∞ such that Xn/cn converges almost surely to a finite random variable which is positive on the event {Xn ↛ 0}. The result is extended to the case of exchangeable summands.

scholarly journals ASYMPTOTIC CRAMÉR TYPE DECOMPOSITION FOR WIENER AND WIGNER INTEGRALS

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350005
Author(s):  
SOLESNE BOURGUIN ◽  
JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BRETON
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Gaussian Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Asymptotic Decomposition ◽  
Type Decomposition

We investigate generalizations of the Cramér theorem. This theorem asserts that a Gaussian random variable can be decomposed into the sum of independent random variables if and only if they are Gaussian. We prove asymptotic counterparts of such decomposition results for multiple Wiener integrals and prove that similar results are true for the (asymptotic) decomposition of the semicircular distribution into free multiple Wigner integrals.

scholarly journals On the Transition Law of Tempered Stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes

2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 721-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shibin Zhang ◽  
Xinsheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stable Distribution ◽  
Stochastic Integral ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Transition Density ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Poisson Random Variable ◽  
Compound Poisson ◽  
Tempered Stable Distribution ◽  
Transition Distribution

In this paper, a stochastic integral of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type is represented to be the sum of two independent random variables: one has a tempered stable distribution and the other has a compound Poisson distribution. In distribution, the compound Poisson random variable is equal to the sum of a Poisson-distributed number of positive random variables, which are independent and identically distributed and have a common specified density function. Based on the representation of the stochastic integral, we prove that the transition distribution of the tempered stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is self-decomposable and that the transition density is a C∞-function.

Asymptotic tail behaviour of phase-type scale mixture distributions

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 412-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Rojas-Nandayapa ◽  
Wangyue Xie
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Mixture Distributions ◽  
Scale Mixture ◽  
Domains Of Attraction ◽  
Heavy Tailed Distributions ◽  
Tail Behaviour ◽  
Phase Type ◽  
Heavy Tailed

AbstractWe consider phase-type scale mixture distributions which correspond to distributions of a product of two independent random variables: a phase-type random variable Y and a non-negative but otherwise arbitrary random variable S called the scaling random variable. We investigate conditions for such a class of distributions to be either light- or heavy-tailed, we explore subexponentiality and determine their maximum domains of attraction. Particular focus is given to phase-type scale mixture distributions where the scaling random variable S has discrete support – such a class of distributions has been recently used in risk applications to approximate heavy-tailed distributions. Our results are complemented with several examples.

Maximal branching processes and ‘long-range percolation’

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (01) ◽  
pp. 89-98
Author(s):  
John Lamperti
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Image Position ◽  
The Right

In the first part of this paper, we will consider a class of Markov chains on the non-negative integers which resemble the Galton-Watson branching process, but with one major difference. If there are k individuals in the nth “generation”, and are independent random variables representing their respective numbers of offspring, then the (n + 1)th generation will contain max individuals rather than as in the branching case. Equivalently, the transition matrices Pij of the chains we will study are to be of the form where F(.) is the probability distribution function of a non-negative, integervalued random variable. The right-hand side of (1) is thus the probability that the maximum of i independent random variables distributed by F has the value j. Such a chain will be called a “maximal branching process”.

scholarly journals Probabalistic modelling of the results of economic activity as a function of random values

2020 ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Olesya Martyniuk ◽  
Stepan Popina ◽  
Serhii Martyniuk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Research Results

Introduction. Mathematical modeling of economic processes is necessary for the unambiguous formulation and solution of the problem. In the economic sphere this is the most important aspect of the activity of any enterprise, for which economic-mathematical modeling is the tool that allows to make adequate decisions. However, economic indicators that are factors of a model are usually random variables. An economic-mathematical model is proposed for calculating the probability distribution function of the result of economic activity on the basis of the known dependence of this result on factors influencing it and density of probability distribution of these factors. Methods. The formula was used to calculate the random variable probability distribution function, which is a function of other independent random variables. The method of estimation of basic numerical characteristics of the investigated functions of random variables is proposed: mathematical expectation that in the probabilistic sense is the average value of the result of functioning of the economic structure, as well as its variance. The upper bound of the variation of the effective feature is indicated. Results. The cases of linear and power functions of two independent variables are investigated. Different cases of two-dimensional domain of possible values of indicators, which are continuous random variables, are considered. The application of research results to production functions is considered. Examples of estimating the probability distribution function of a random variable are offered. Conclusions. The research results allow in the probabilistic sense to estimate the result of the economic structure activity on the basis of the probabilistic distributions of the values of the dependent variables. The prospect of further research is to apply indirect control over economic performance based on economic and mathematical modeling.

Stochastic comparisons of random minima and maxima

1997 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
pp. 420-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Shaked ◽  
Tityik Wong
Keyword(s):  
Positive Integer ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Stochastic Comparison ◽  
Stochastic Comparisons ◽  
Comparison Results

Let X 1, X 2,… be a sequence of independent random variables and let N be a positive integer-valued random variable which is independent of the Xi. In this paper we obtain some stochastic comparison results involving min {X 1, X 2,…, XN ) and max{X 1, X 2,…, XN }.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document