What if you knew that, 12 years from now, demand for your product would dramatically fall? What would you do?
The transportation sector is responsible for more than 60% of worldwide demand for petroleum products. However, several countries have recently introduced policies banning the internal combustion engine (ICE) and/or supporting electric vehicles (EVs), which could have a major impact on this demand. Norway, India, The Netherlands, Germany, China and the UK have all made such announcements. Furthermore, the increasing affordability and reliability of EVs combined with their excellent maintenance and automation capabilities have driven EVs to become among the best-selling luxury cars available today.
There is no way to be certain what the new normal of 2030 may bring for petroleum transportation fuels and the automotive industry. Forecasts range from a world dominated by EVs and substantially reduced demand for oil, to scenarios where the impact to petroleum demand is less than 10%. Whatever the future may bring, renewable energy paired with flexible and intelligent EVs is emerging as a threat, to which the petroleum and automotive industries are responding with a myriad of strategies.
Throughout history, even small disruptions in supply or demand have resulted in major impacts on industry profitability. Based on case studies from around the world and work with large petroleum companies in Australia, this paper discusses how leading companies are preparing for a post-ICE world and considers what steps petroleum and automotive industry executives should be taking today to ensure that they remain vibrant and viable in the new normal of 2030 and beyond.
Covid-19 and the ‘new normal’: are remote video consultations here to stay?
