Forecasting the yield curve with macroeconomic information - evidence from European markets

Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez De Prado ◽  
Carla Azevedo Lobo ◽  
Isabel Maldonado ◽  
Carlos Pinho
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Isabel Maldonado ◽  
Carlos Pinho ◽  
Francisco Rodríguez De Prado ◽  
Carla Azevedo Lobo

2019 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 1940001
Author(s):  
Rui Liu

I provide evidence on the existence of unspanned macro risk. I investigate the usefulness of unspanned macro information for forecasting bond risk premia in a macro-finance term structure model from the perspective of a bond investor. I account for model uncertainty by combining forecasts with and without unspanned output and inflation risks optimally from the forecaster’s objective. Incorporating macro information generates significant gains in forecasting bond risk premia relative to yield curve information at long forecast horizons, especially when allowing for time-varying combination weight. These gains in predictive accuracy significantly improve investor utility.


2007 ◽  
pp. 70-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Demidova

This article analyzes definitions and the role of hostile takeovers at the Russian and European markets for corporate control. It develops the methodology of assessing the efficiency of anti-takeover defenses adapted to the conditions of the Russian market. The paper uses the cost-benefit analysis, where the costs and benefits of the pre-bid and post-bid defenses are compared.


1979 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert F. Ayres ◽  
John Y. Barry

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 2858-2878
Author(s):  
M.I. Emets

Subject. The article addresses the green bond pricing as compared to bonds other than green ones. Objectives. The aims are to determine how the fact that a bond is identified as a green one, the issue amount, and the availability of third-party verification, influence the yield to maturity; to make recommendations on effective green bond pricing. Methods. The study employs econometric testing of hypotheses, using the multiple linear regression. The sample includes 318 green and 1695 conventional bonds. Results. Green bonds have a lower yield to maturity in comparison with conventional bonds. The yield to maturity of green bonds with third-party verification is lower, as contrasted with green bonds without verification. Conclusions. The next step in the green bond market development is creating a benchmark yield curve for sovereign green bonds, with parallel issuance of conventional, non-green bonds. The yield curve is crucial for effective bond pricing. Two yield curves, i.e. for green and non-green bonds, will enable investors to estimate the fair price on issuance, as well as to define, if there is a difference in pricing.


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