scholarly journals Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Felbermayr ◽  
Julian Hinz ◽  
Sonali Chowdhry

Abstract The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the first wave of infections experienced by Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but – in line with expectations – not of fatality rates. Were all German counties located as far from Ischgl as the most distant county of Vorpommern-Rügen, Germany would have seen about 45 % fewer COVID-19 cases. A simple diffusion model predicts that the absolute value of the distance-to-Ischgl elasticity should fall over time when inter- and intra-county mobility are unrestricted. We test this hypothesis and conclude that the German lockdown measures have halted the spread of the virus.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udo Boehm ◽  
Maarten Marsman ◽  
Han van der Maas ◽  
Gunter Maris

The emergence of computer-based assessments has made response times, in addition to response accuracies, available as a source of information about test takers’ latent abilities. The predominant approach to jointly account for response times and accuracies are statistical models. Substantive approaches such as the diffusion model, on the other hand, have been slow to gain traction due to their unwieldy functional form. In the present work we show how a single simplifying assumption yields a highly tractable diffusion model. This simple diffusion model is straightforward to analyse using Gibbs sampling and can be readily extended with a latent regression framework. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of our model compared to the standard diffusion model in a simulation study and showcase the theoretical merit of our model in an example application.


1997 ◽  
Vol 159 (2) ◽  
pp. 405-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. I. Dimitrov ◽  
J. D'Haen ◽  
G. Knuyt ◽  
C. Quaeyhaegens ◽  
L. M. Stals

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 082308 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Rowlands ◽  
J. C. Sprott

2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 085613 ◽  
Author(s):  
N H Fletcher ◽  
R G Elliman ◽  
T-H Kim

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