scholarly journals Predicting the Brexit Vote by Tracking and Classifying Public Opinion Using Twitter Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Cesar Amador Diaz Lopez ◽  
Sofia Collignon-Delmar ◽  
Kenneth Benoit ◽  
Akitaka Matsuo
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Training Sets

AbstractWe use 23M Tweets related to the EU referendum in the UK to predict the Brexit vote. In particular, we use user-generated labels known as hashtags to build training sets related to the Leave/Remain campaign. Next, we train SVMs in order to classify Tweets. Finally, we compare our results to Internet and telephone polls. This approach not only allows to reduce the time of hand-coding data to create a training set, but also achieves high level of correlations with Internet polls. Our results suggest that Twitter data may be a suitable substitute for Internet polls and may be a useful complement for telephone polls. We also discuss the reach and limitations of this method.

scholarly journals A Corpus-assisted Critical Discourse Analysis of the Discursive Representation of Immigration in the EU Referendum Debate

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebtisam Saleh Aluthman
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Daily News ◽  
Concordance Analysis ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

This paper presents a critical account of the representation of immigration in the Brexit corpus—a collective corpus of 108,452,923 words compiled mostly from blogs, tweets, and daily news related to Brexit debate. The study follows the methodological synergy approach proposed by Baker et al. (2008), a heuristic methodological approach that combines methods of discourse analysis and corpus-assisted statistical tools including keyword, collocation, and concordance analysis. Drawing on this methodological synergy approach, the investigation yields significant findings contextualized within the socio-economic-political context of the European Union (EU) leave referendum to trace how the issue of immigration is represented in the discourses of the Remain and Leave campaigns. The frequency results show that immigration is one of the most salient topics in the Brexit corpus. Concordance analysis of the word immigrants and collocation investigation of the word immigration reveal opposing attitudes toward immigration in the EU referendum debate. The analysis uncovers negative attitudes toward the uncontrolled flow of immigrants from other EU countries and public concerns about immigrants' negative impacts on wages, education, and health services. Other findings reveal positive attitudes toward immigrants emphasizing their positive contributions to the UK economy. The study concludes with an argument of the significant association between the political and socio-economic ideologies of a particular society and the language communicated in its media.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

'Juncker Plan' could mean EU investment bulge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.

Immigration, free movement and the EU referendum

2016 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Portes
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Founding Principle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Central Economic

Immigration and free movement are central issues in the UK's referendum on EU membership. Although free movement was a founding principle of the EU, it only became of central economic and political importance after the expansion of the EU eastward in 2004. For the UK, the economic impacts of recent EU migration appear to have been relatively benign, even for the low paid and low skilled. The UK's recent ‘renegotiation’, which focused on the largely irrelevant issue of ‘benefit tourism’, will make little difference. A vote to Leave, however, will potentially take us into new territory for UK immigration policy,

scholarly journals Did Terrorism Affect Voting in the Brexit Referendum?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Bove ◽  
Georgios Efthyvoulou ◽  
Harry Pickard
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Eu

Abstract This article contributes to the recent research on Brexit and public opinion formation by contending that the determinants of the referendum results should be evaluated against the background of wider public security concerns. The British public has long regarded terrorism as a top concern, more so than in any other European country. Terrorist attacks on UK soil raised voters' awareness of security issues and their saliency in the context of the EU referendum. The study finds that locations affected by terrorist violence in their proximity exhibit an increase in the share of pro-Remain votes, particularly those that experienced more sensational attacks. Using individual-level data, the results show that in the aftermath of terrorist attacks, citizens are more likely to reconsider the security risks involved in leaving the EU.

EU Migrant Workers, Brexit and Precarity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva A. Duda-Mikulin
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Women Migrants ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Migrants Rights ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

In June 2016, after 43 years as part of the European community, the UK people decided to leave. In March 2017, the UK Prime Minister officially started the process of Brexit – the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. While Brexit was decided by a relatively small margin of people, one issue was key in the debates preceding the EU referendum. This was migration. People have been migrating since the beginning of time but today the issue of migration has been elevated to a key national concern. It is now one of the most contentious and divisive matters in the UK. This book investigates EU women migrants’ perspectives on the Brexit vote in the UK. It presents accounts from EU nationals and considers the wider implications in relation to precarity and the British paid labour market. This book offers important insights into the world of the UK paid labour but from the point of view of EU migrants and more specifically Polish women whose livelihoods have been disrupted by the Brexit vote and the decision that the UK should leave the EU whilst any solid guarantees with regards to migrants’ rights are yet to come from the UK government. Through analysis of new data generated in qualitative interviews, this book makes an original and grounded contribution to understanding the significance and impacts of the result of the Brexit referendum on migrant workers from the EU resident in the UK.

scholarly journals Inside out: The UK press, Brexit and strategic populist ventriloquism

2020 ◽  
pp. 026732312094091
Author(s):  
David Smith ◽  
David Deacon ◽  
John Downey
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Opportunities ◽  
Newspaper Reporting ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Political Advantage ◽  
National Newspaper ◽  
And Shifts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Inside Out

This article examines how and when populist discourses were mobilised within the 2016 UK European Union (EU) Referendum campaign, by examining the specific temporal conjunctions between the changing strategy of the official ‘Vote Leave’ campaign, British national newspaper reporting of the Referendum and shifts in public opinion. Our analysis shows that Vote Leave only started to utilise anti-elitist and exclusionary populist rhetoric at the mid-point of the campaign, in response to constricting political opportunities, but by so doing transformed the dynamic of the Referendum. We term this an example of ‘strategic populist ventriloquism’, where elite politicians appropriate the language of insurgency for political advantage, and argue that current conceptual frameworks on media and populism need to be broadened to accommodate these occasions.

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