scholarly journals Domestic Political Calculations behind the EU Referendum Bill 2015-16: Focusing on Euroscepticism of the UK Conservative Party

2015 ◽  
Vol null (41) ◽  
pp. 71-101
Author(s):  
김상수

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.


Author(s):  
David Denver ◽  
Mark Garnett

This book provides a concise account of general elections during more than five tumultuous decades in British politics. Beginning in 1964, when partisan allegiances in the UK were relatively stable, it ends in 2019 when the volatility of voters was illustrated by the success of Conservative Party candidates in constituencies which had previously been ‘safe’ for Labour. The book describes the changing influences on voting behaviour—from the early 1960s, when allegiances were largely based on social class, to the 2020s when factors such as impressions of party leaders and new media outlets such as Facebook seem far more important. The electoral contests of these years produced dramatic results, ranging from Labour’s landslide victory in 1997 to the three closely fought battles of 2010, 2015, and 2017. These elections have taken place against a background of concern arising from the low turnout of voters, reaching its nadir in 2001 when less than 60 per cent of the electorate participated. Yet, in recent years, competition for the support of volatile voters has been complicated by issues like devolution to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—not to mention the question of EU membership, which cut across long-established party lines and has helped to raise political passions to unprecedented levels. Apart from its analysis of electoral campaigns and outcomes, the book describes the most relevant developments between elections (including the EU referendum of 2016) which help to explain the dilemmas facing the system of liberal democracy in contemporary Britain.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebtisam Saleh Aluthman

This paper presents a critical account of the representation of immigration in the Brexit corpus—a collective corpus of 108,452,923 words compiled mostly from blogs, tweets, and daily news related to Brexit debate. The study follows the methodological synergy approach proposed by Baker et al. (2008), a heuristic methodological approach that combines methods of discourse analysis and corpus-assisted statistical tools including keyword, collocation, and concordance analysis. Drawing on this methodological synergy approach, the investigation yields significant findings contextualized within the socio-economic-political context of the European Union (EU) leave referendum to trace how the issue of immigration is represented in the discourses of the Remain and Leave campaigns. The frequency results show that immigration is one of the most salient topics in the Brexit corpus. Concordance analysis of the word immigrants and collocation investigation of the word immigration reveal opposing attitudes toward immigration in the EU referendum debate. The analysis uncovers negative attitudes toward the uncontrolled flow of immigrants from other EU countries and public concerns about immigrants' negative impacts on wages, education, and health services. Other findings reveal positive attitudes toward immigrants emphasizing their positive contributions to the UK economy. The study concludes with an argument of the significant association between the political and socio-economic ideologies of a particular society and the language communicated in its media.


Author(s):  
Anthony Salamone

As Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson was a prominent campaigner for a ‘Remain’ vote in the European Union referendum of June 2016. Following the 2017 general election, meanwhile, Davidson repositioned herself as someone who could – aided by 13 Scottish Tory MPs in the House of Commons – influence the Brexit negotiations and nudge the UK Conservative Party towards a ‘soft’ rather than ‘hard’ deal with the EU. This chapter considers the impact of Brexit on the Scottish Conservatives during the leadership of Ruth Davidson in four dimensions: Brexit’s distinct Scottish political context, its electoral consequences, the conduct of Brexit within the UK, and the Brexit negotiations themselves. It concludes with reflections on the future prospects for the Scottish party in light of all four dimensions.


Author(s):  
Richard Hayton

This chapter argues that since returning to power at Westminster in 2010, Conservative statecraft has broadly followed Jim Bulpitt’s ‘territorial code’ schema. However, it also suggests this has come under increasing strain, as the political and constitutional consequences of the independence referendum in Scotland and the EU referendum vote have unfolded. The chapter’s primary focus is on the Conservative Party as a state-wide actor between 2010-19. In terms of statecraft and territorial politics, it concentrates on devolution and the centre’s dealings with Scotland and specifically the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party when it was led by Ruth Davidson between 2011 and 2019.


Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Cesar Amador Diaz Lopez ◽  
Sofia Collignon-Delmar ◽  
Kenneth Benoit ◽  
Akitaka Matsuo

AbstractWe use 23M Tweets related to the EU referendum in the UK to predict the Brexit vote. In particular, we use user-generated labels known as hashtags to build training sets related to the Leave/Remain campaign. Next, we train SVMs in order to classify Tweets. Finally, we compare our results to Internet and telephone polls. This approach not only allows to reduce the time of hand-coding data to create a training set, but also achieves high level of correlations with Internet polls. Our results suggest that Twitter data may be a suitable substitute for Internet polls and may be a useful complement for telephone polls. We also discuss the reach and limitations of this method.


Author(s):  
Gillian Peele ◽  
John Francis

The conclusion evaluates the success of Cameron’s strategy of Conservative Party renewal. It argues that although the ambitious vision of Conservative modernisation was attenuated with time and the pressure of external events, some significant progress was made towards the broader goal of Party renewal. Even if the Conservative Party did not reconstruct radically its philosophy and policies, it did take steps towards a more socially liberal synthesis and did successfully diversify its candidates to present an image relevant to the twenty first century. It also re-established some of credibility as a Party with governmental competence and in 2010 and 2015 improved its electoral outreach. How long-lasting these achievements will prove is unclear. Labour’s move left under Corbyn and the weakened state of the Liberal Democrats offer Cameron space in the short-term at least to build further electoral advantage. But the EU referendum poses a renewed threat to party unity. Cameron’s period as Party leader saw some major accomplishments for a Party that had long been in the wilderness. Whether those accomplishments can be sustained will depend on how well the Conservative leadership handles divisive issues, especially the outcome of the referendum but also migration and Scotland, and on how far the Party can project a persuasive appeal into the next electoral cycle.


2016 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Portes

Immigration and free movement are central issues in the UK's referendum on EU membership. Although free movement was a founding principle of the EU, it only became of central economic and political importance after the expansion of the EU eastward in 2004. For the UK, the economic impacts of recent EU migration appear to have been relatively benign, even for the low paid and low skilled. The UK's recent ‘renegotiation’, which focused on the largely irrelevant issue of ‘benefit tourism’, will make little difference. A vote to Leave, however, will potentially take us into new territory for UK immigration policy,


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