Agricultural growth rates in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s
show that strong growth during the 1960s was driven by several factors,
including greater certainty in the use of irrigation water (as a result
of an agreement with India), the introduction of productivityenhancing
fertiliser-seed packages, the introduction of tubewells and the
electrification of rural areas, and policy changes that improved the
profitability of farming. Growth during the 1970s dropped to 2.3 percent
as a result of the uncertainty created by land reforms in 1972 and 1977,
severe climatic shocks, a cotton virus that depressed production for
most of the decade, and political instability. The recovery in the 1980s
and early 1990s can be attributed to the introduction of new cotton
varieties and improved management techniques, as well as to a gradual
improvement in economic incentives. Closer inspection of the nature and
sources of this growth raises concerns about its sustainability and
casts doubt on the ability of the sector to grow by more than 3-4
percent a year in the future. Many of the past sources of agricultural
growth in Pakistan appear to have been fully exploited. Strategy for the
future must effectively address the followings. Allowing the market to
Operate, policy reforms that support the ongoing structural adjustment
should be given top priority. To address the crisis in irrigation
management market-determined incentives must be allowed to determine
resource allocation within the irrigation system. Reform in extension
should include establishing closer links with research institutions and
reducing the number of front-line extension workers and replacing them
with fewer, bettertrained workers who are more responsive to the needs
of farming systems. Full-fledged land reform is difficult to enact and
can be considered only after a comprehensive study of costs and
benefits. Some important measures can be implemented immediately,
however. Foremost is providing security of tenure to many farmers,
especially tenants-at-will, thereby improving responsiveness to
incentives and creating better incentives for long-term
investments.