scholarly journals Modeling Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Analysis Using Expert Modeler

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaitanya Singla ◽  
Pradeepta Kumar Sarangi ◽  
Sunny Singh ◽  
Ashok Kumar Sahoo
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Goods And Services

Consumer price index (CPI) a popular economic indicator for India that represents the prices paid by customers for goods and services consumedby them.CPI is often used as an economic indicator that reflects the change in prices of goods and services over a period of time. In this work an attempt has been made to develop a forecasting model for India’s CPI for the period of May to December 2018. The data used in this work is the all-India CPI data for the period January 2013 - April 2018. SPSS Expert Modeler method has been used to fit the models and analyzing the data.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Menurut Kelompok Pengeluaran Nasional Tahun 2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Halida Sofiah Noor ◽  
Cucu Komala
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Rate Of Decline

The Consumer Price Index is an important indicator of the financial market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index number that describes changes in prices of goods and services consumed by the public in general for a certain period with a predetermined time period. National expenditure according to CPI is divided into four sub-groups, namely the first general sub-group, the second sub-group of foodstuffs the third sub-group of processed foods, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco and fourth sub-group housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel development CPI 2018, every month from January to December tends to increase. Changes in CPI can describe the rate of increase (inflation) or the rate of decline (deflation) of goods or services. CPI can be regarded as a very important economic indicator and is used to represent changes in the average retail price level at the consumer level for a number of certain types of goods and services. The rise in the CPI can lead to an increase in interest rates, increase in money supply growth, increase the attractiveness of currencies, and increase inflation.

scholarly journals Empirical analysis of the determinants of the IPCA for the period of 2000 to 2011: an approach based on a SVAR model

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus Boldrine Abrita ◽  
Eliane Cristina De Araújo ◽  
Angelo Rondina Neto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Svar Model

This study examines empirically the determinants of the Brazilian inflation, measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) and its decomposition, estimating two equations and using an autoregressive model. The database covers the period from January 2000 to December 2011. Five main groups are mentioned as the determinants of inflation: i) Aggregate Demand; ii) Aggregate Supply; iii) Exchange Rate; iv) Salaries and v) Inertia. The evidences reveals that inertia, external factors and the supply conditions overlap the demand in the determination of the Brazilian inflation. Thus, inflation shows to be little sensitive to the level of activity. 

scholarly journals THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSE PRICES AND INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN ARDL APPROACH

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roula Inglesi-Lotz ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Middle Segment ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Housing Costs

This paper investigates whether house prices provide a suitable hedge against inflation in South Africa by analysing the long-run relationship between house prices and the prices of non-housing goods and services. Quarterly data series are collected for the luxury, large middle-segment, medium middle-segment, small middle-segment and the entire middle segment of house prices, as well as, the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1970:Q1–2011:Q1. Based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, the empirical results indicate long-run cointegration between the house prices of all the segments and the consumer price index excluding housing costs. Moreover, the long-run elasticity of house prices with respect to prices of non-housing goods and services, i.e., the Fisher coefficient is greater than one for the luxury segment, virtually equal to one for the small middle-segment, and less than one for the large and medium middle-segments, as well as the affordable segments. More importantly though, the estimated Fisher coefficients are not statistically different from unity – a result consistent with the proposed theoretical framework relating housing prices and consumer prices excluding housing expenditure. In general, we infer that house prices in South Africa provide a stable inflation hedge in the long-run.

scholarly journals Analisis Perkembangan Indeks Harga Konsumen di Kota Medan

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 412-418
Author(s):  
Sari Wulandari ◽  
Muhammad Dani Habra
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Household Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
City Community ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the important economic indicators that can provide information about the development of prices of goods and services (commodities) paid by consumers or the public especially the city community. This study aims to analyze the Development of the Consumer Price Index in Medan City. The benefits of this research are a description of the fluctuations in commodity prices for basic needs of the community at the level of consumers or retail traders. This type of research is descriptive qualitative. The subject in this study is the Central Statistics Agency and the object in this study is the Consumer Price Index through seven groups of household expenditure in 2018-2019. The results showed that the development of price indices in Medan City tends to fluctuate from seven types of household expenditure groups. During the January-December 2019 period the highest inflation of the seven types of expenditure was foodstuffs. Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Inflation Rate

scholarly journals Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (163) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francien Berry ◽  
Brian Graf ◽  
Michael Stanger ◽  
Mari Ylä-Jarkko
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Scanner Data ◽  
Producer Prices

The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates. Both indexes are used by the Fund, policymakers, and researchers for global, regional, and domestic surveillance. In this context, the paper evaluates the soundness of the indexes by assessing four major criteria: frequency of updating the weights, the index coverage, timeliness, and the use of international classifications. We discuss online and scanner data as frontier issues. The study shows that the CPI is universally and frequently compiled, timely, and fairly-well aligned with international standards. However, the weights used to compile the index are updated in only 45 percent of economies and have national coverage in 76 percent. PPIs, compiled by only 126 economies are timely, but there is scope for continued improvement as only 36 percent of economies have updated PPI weights and approximately 67 percent maintain the recommended coverage. Outdated weights impact the reliability of the indexes for policy analysis. Frequently updated weights and well-represented coverage mitigate against biases and ensure that the indexes properly measure the price evolution in the economy.

Consumer Confidence Index in Vietnam: Scale Development and Compilation Methods

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-124
Author(s):  
Ha Hoang Thi Thanh ◽  
Bich Tran Thi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
United Nations Statistics Division ◽  
Country Specific

A consumer confidence index (CCI) is an important economic indicator which is used to adjust the forecasting of gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) in the shortterm. Although there exists standard guidelines from the United Nations Statistics Division and European Commission, international experience shows the scale that measures a CCI and the methods of calculating a CCI need to be adapted to the country specific context. Using its own data from the nationally representative survey and factor analysis methods, this paper constructs a scale to measure consumer confidence for Vietnam. The paper, then, computes a CCI and proposes the most appropriate method corresponding to the Vietnamese setting. Validation methods from the paper show that the Vietnamese CCI calculated in the paper reflects approximately the economic picture of the whole country as well as six regions of Vietnam, ensuring the validity of using this index to adjust short-term GDP and CPI forecasts.

scholarly journals U.S. consumer price index in the second half of XX century: calculation strategy and ways of its changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
M. A. Kozlova
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Level Of Aggregation ◽  
High Level ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Data Generalization ◽  
Index Calculation

The purpose of this research is a detection of U.S. consumer price index development and change ways emerged in the second half of XX century. Consumer price index is considered as a practically evaluable index number.Materials and methods. This research is based on the methodology documents of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and its theoretical and practical papers published in Monthly Labor Review. The basic method is historical and descriptive techniques.Results. Data generalization for U.S. consumer price index across five revisions is realized in structure of the calculation method, adapted by ROSSTAT for the national consumer price index. Firstly the dynamic of number of cities, included in consumer price survey and changes of its sample is analyzed. Secondly the principles of point of purchase sampling is in focus. Thirdly the set of goods and services and dynamics of its structure are considered. Fourthly there is a generalization of pricing procedure principles that is frequency according to the type of cities and feature of goods and services. Fifthly the source and limits of data collecting for weights which needed for consumer price index calculation on the high level of aggregation. And sixthly there is description of mean price and price index calculation.Conclusion. The main ways of development and transformation in U.S. consumer price index are defined. It may be considered as alternative solutions in consumer price index of other countries. The main ways are the increase of city and goods sampling, extension of probability use, formation of good classification, equal temporal interval of weight renovation and creation of price index system.

scholarly journals Transmission mechanism of monetary policy and response to outside shocks in 2020 by National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
pp. 179-185
Author(s):  
G. G. Ilyassova ◽  
Z. N. Abiyeva ◽  
G. A. Perneyeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Republic

The article examines the features and current state of monetary policy and transmission mechanism of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The transmission mechanism is not a tool to achieve the goals set for the development of the modern economy. This mechanism is a set of interactions in economic processes through which the results of decisions or transactions in the framework of monetary policy affect the economy. In this regard, the article describes the level of inflation and its impact on the level of prices for goods and services. The situation with the use of the consumer price index to calculate inflation, calculated on the basis of the analysis of prices in the portfolio of consumer goods and services of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, is analyzed in detail. Macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, reflecting the viable direction of the monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, affect the level of the consumer price index. To make decisions, the NBRK conducts research to determine inflation forecasts. Inflationary expectations make it possible to assess the possible impact on the economy. In this context, the article states that the NBRK's inflation target will be achieved through the following channels (base rate, exchange rate and money supply). The conclusion is based on the fact that, given the global pandemic around the world, one can see the NBRK's expansionary monetary policy and decisions to lower the base rate, increase the money supply and stabilize the currency.

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