scholarly journals Central Bank Credibility: Determinants and Measurement. A Cross-Country Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-151
Author(s):  
Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Credibility Measure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Country Study ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Credibility Index ◽  
Central Bank Credibility

This paper proposes a new measure of central bank credibility — the credibility index calculated on the basis of the key determinants of central bank credibility. The index is compiled for 9 countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Chile, Brazil, Turkey, United Kingdom and Sweden , for the years 1999–2007. The results are cross-checked with other credibility measures based on inflation expectations of two groups of economic agents. The analysis demonstrates that the credibility index may be considered a relevant and consistent credibility measure.

scholarly journals Kształtowanie oczekiwań inflacyjnych przez prognozy inflacji w świetle badań empirycznych

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-74
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Main Function ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Parametric Statistics ◽  
The Impact

The article focuses on aspects of modern monetary strategy: inflation expectationsand inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts’ main function is shaping inflationexpectations. The deeper the impact of a central bank on expectations, the easierits task of stabilization of inflation on the targeted level. The article presents theresults of empirical research that verifies the hypothesis on existence of interdependencesof inflation forecasts and inflation expectations. The research coverstwo countries: Sweden and the Czech Republic. The research methodology includesquantitative methods: quantification of expectations (Carlson-Parkin method)and non-parametric statistics of interdependences. The research confirms theexistence of statistically important interdependences of inflation forecasts andexpectations in both countries. Their strength is remarkable for Sweden (c.a. 0.70)and much weaker for the Czech Republic (c.a. 3.0).

scholarly journals Can inflation forecast and monetary policy path be really useful? The case of the Czech Republic

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko ◽  
Karolina Tura
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Parametric Statistics

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.

scholarly journals Central bank seigniorage in the Czech Republic

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 243-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacek Cukrowski ◽  
Emil Stavrev
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
The Czech Republic

scholarly journals Openness And Inflation: Evidence From Nine Eastern European Nations

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Rutilio Martinez ◽  
Vish Iyer
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Significant Coefficient ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Cross Country

Correlation coefficients between inflation and openness were estimated, with data from 1996 to 2010, for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine. Eight of the nine coefficients were, as proposed by macroeconomics, negative, although the coefficients for Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine were not significant. Lithuania's positive and significant coefficient suggested that if openness would not have increased, inflation would have been higher. Cross-country coefficients estimated for 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2010 were negative but not significant due to large differences between the inflation rates of countries that had very similar rates of openness.

scholarly journals Models of restructuring banking systems in economies in transition

2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 201-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinisa Ostojic
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Chain Reactions ◽  
Banking Systems ◽  
Economies In Transition

In view of the still underdeveloped capital market in Central and Eastern Europe, modernizing enterprises particularly depends on a functioning banking sector. Due to the interdependence enterprises and banks the insolvency of individual enterprises set off chain reactions which resulted in the collapse of banks and shook the banking systems in some countries. Commercial banks were particularly susceptible to these developments since the ratio between their own fluids and enough experience in reorganizing enterprises nor business perspectives for the enterprises depending on them. In the past years the individual states have made different degrees of progress in reorganizing their commercial banks. Two policy patterns become manifest: Estonia very consistently closed insolvent banks and opened markets for foreign banks and newly developing private banks. Thus the Estonia state considerably reduced its own share in the banks. Latvia also tried to increase its banks orientation towards profitability by opening the market and reducing state shares. The other countries, by contrast, primarily improved capital endowment of the existing banks. Between 1992 and 1995 Polish, Hungarian and Slovene governments realized extensive recapitalisation. While Poland increased the registered capital of important commercial banks, the Slovene and the Hungarian governments also bought nonperforming loans from the banks for state bonds. Hungary then increased the registered capital of the big state-owned banks. In 1994. and 1995. respectively partial recapitalisation took place in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. Neither Latvia nor Bulgaria nor Lithuania have until now succeeded in stabilizing their banking systems. In the Czech Republic which similar to Estonia opened the market, leading to the emergence of about 60 banks, the central bank has hitherto intervened in 12 banks facing liquidity problems or insolvency. In the Slovak Republic a far-reaching consolidation of banks is also still due. The governments in Bulgaria and Lithuania presently intend to increase the banks capital by state bonds, while the Latvian central bank refrained from direct intervention after the collapse of Banks Baltija and only intensified control of the banks activities.

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