scholarly journals The Analysis of the Validity of the Phillips Curve in Turkey via the Fourier Cointegration and Causality Tests

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 3173-3190
Author(s):  
Şaduman YILDIZ
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Causality Tests

scholarly journals The Business Cycle, Inflation, and Unemployment Rate Nexus: An Empirical Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Tito Belchior Silva Moreira ◽  
Michel Constantino ◽  
George Henrique de Moura Cunha ◽  
Paulo Roberto Pires de Sousa ◽  
Luciano Balbino dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
American Economy

This paper revisits the main assumption regarding the original Phillips curve regarding the American economy, in which one assumes that the unemployment rate causes an inflation rate. In this context, this paper aims to evaluate if the variance of the inflation rate affects the unemployment rate and, besides, if there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Based on quarterly time series from 1959:04 to 2019:04 the empirical results show, via OLS and GMM methods, that the monetary policy affects the business cycle, and, in turn, the business cycle impacts the unemployment rate. Hence, the monetary policy affects indirectly the unemployment rate via the business cycle. On the other hand, the variance of the inflation rate contributes to an increase in the unemployment rate, consequently, there isn’t a trade-off between the unemployment rate and the variance of the inflation rate. Moreover, there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. This is the contribution of this paper. At last, based on the Phillips curve, one expects that the unemployment rate causes the inflation rate. However, the Granger causality tests display a two-way causality relation between both variables.

Multivariate Linear and Non-Linear Causality Tests

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhidong Bai ◽  
Bingzhi Zhang ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Non Linear ◽  
Causality Tests

A New-Monetarist Phillips Curve

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsz-Nga Wong
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve

Japan’s Economic Recovery and Phillips Curve

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 635-644
Author(s):  
Chanu Lee ◽  
Changmin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Economic Recovery

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

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