The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the Nigerian exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Onodje ◽  
Temitope Ahmdalat Oke ◽  
Oluwatimilehin Aina ◽  
Nazeer Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Wald Tests ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of crude oil prices on the Nigerian exchange rate with emphasis on discriminating between the effects of positive and negative changes in oil price on exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The authors used monthly time series data from 1996:1 to 2019:6 and adopted two oil price measures, namely, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediary prices. For analysis, the authors used stepwise least squares to estimate a non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model and Wald tests to determine cointegration and the presence of asymmetric effects. Findings The findings showed that positive and negative Brent crude price changes significantly affect exchange rates differently in nominal terms, both in the long-run and short-run. However, the differences were purely in terms of effect size because the exchange rate decreased for both negative and positive oil price changes. Originality/value Whilst empirical research on asymmetries in the effect of oil price on exchange rate abounds, little evidence exists in Nigeria’s case. Although some studies previously tested for asymmetric oil price effects on the Nigerian currency, the approach used did not estimate long and short-run effects or test of long-run and short-run asymmetries. This paper fills this methodological gap using monthly using the NARDL approach. The NARDL approach provided the advantage of estimating effects for the long-run and short-run and testing for asymmetries in both time spans.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Changes on Certain Budget Variables, Government and Tax Revenues, External Grants, and Government Expenditures in Jordan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Amjad Qwader
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluated the impact of oil price changes on certain budget variables in Jordan over the period of 1992 to 2015. Time series data were analyzed using econometric techniques that included ordinary least squares. Findings from the analysis revealed a statistically significant positive correlation for oil price on government and tax revenues, external grants, and government expenditures, whereas oil price on budget deficits had a statistically significant negative correlation. Therefore, the study proposes that the government of Jordan directly invests its oil tax revenues in economic sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, to broaden the sources of revenue, as well as exploit such revenues to establish alternative energy projects, whether from the sun, wind, or both. In addition, the establishment of such projects is suitable for the conditions of the Jordanian environment.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar dan Inflasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483
Author(s):  
Yaenal Arifin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar merupakan variabel - variabel yang diserahkan dalam mekanisme pasar internasional. Guncangan pada keduanya dapat berdampak pada stabilitas perekonomian domestik. Kinerja perekonomian salah satunya dapat diukur dari laju pertumbuhan ouput riil negara tersebut. Harga minyak dan nilai tukar dapat secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat ouput riil suatu negara maupun secara tidak langsung yaitu melalui jalur inflasi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak dunia dan nilai tukar terhdap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui mediasi inflasi. Metode analisis yang adalah analisis jalur (path analyze) dengan menggunakan data time series kuartal selama tahun 2005-2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan; secara parsial, harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif (tidak signifikan) terhadap inflasi. Secara parsial harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif (signifikan) , nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif (signifikan) dan inflasi  berpengaruh positif (signifikan) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi dalam penelitian ini hanya memediasi pengaruh harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. World Oil prices and exchange rate are variables which controled by international market mechanism. Shocks on both can have an impact on the stability of the domestic economy. The economic performance measured in real output growth. Oil price and exchange rate directly affect a country's of real output growth  and indirectly is through inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s economic growth through inflation mediation. The method of analysis are using path analyze with quarterly time series data during the years 2005-2014. The result showed : partially, the oil price positively (significant) and positive  exchange rate effect (not significant)  on the inflation. Partially, world oil prices has a positive effect (significant), the exchange rate has a negative effect (significant) and the inflation has a positive effect (significant) to the economic growth. Inflation in this research just has a mediation the effect of world oil price to the economic growth.

Asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables: NARDL exposition

2020 ◽  
pp. 171-189
Author(s):  
Omoke Philip Chimobi ◽  
Uche Emmanuel
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Asymmetric Impact

The preoccupation of this study is to give empirical explanations to the existing relationship between oil price dynamics and some selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Specifical-ly, it seeks to identify if the impacts of the changing oil prices on output, investment and un-employment is symmetric or asymmetric. Monthly time series data used in the research was subjected to a nonlinear analysis through the newly developed NARDL. To that effect, our findings reveal that changes in oil prices has asymmetric effects on the chosen macroeconomic variables. Our findings call for different policy formulations for up and down swings in oil prices

Redistributive Politics and Stock Price Dispersion

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
FIONA McGILLIVRAY
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
The Impact

Cross-sectional time-series data from fourteen stock markets, from 1973 to 1996, are used to study how political institutions compare in affecting party governments' incentives to enrich one group of industries at the expense of another. Using measures of cross-sectoral variance of price changes within stock markets as a proxy for change in redistributive policy, I show that political change is important in both proportional representation (PR) and majoritarian systems. As parties shift in and out of government, trade and industrial policy is redistributed to favour the parties' industrial supporters. Such changes in policy increase the cross-sectoral dispersion in price changes, with newly advantaged industries seeing their stock increase, while the price of those losing favourable policy declines. The temporal impact of redistribution differs across electoral systems, with the impact of political change being more immediate in majoritarian systems and the effect being more diffuse in PR systems. Majoritarian systems are also more responsive to economic shocks, while changes in economic conditions have few discernable effects on the dispersion of stock prices in PR countries. PR systems, however, experience overall higher levels of dispersion. I contrast these results with the dominant extant arguments of radical policy shifts in majoritarian systems and policy stability in PR systems.

scholarly journals Empirical analysis of crude oil consumption and price on Ghana’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Kweku Appiah ◽  
Ebenezer Oduro ◽  
Shadrack Benn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

AbstractThe objective of this paper was to investigate the impact of crude oil consumption and oil price on the growth of the Ghanaian economy. It proceeded with annual time series data (1980-2016) sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Energy Information Administration (EIA). All variables used in the study were integrated of order one as suggested by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Further, the Johansen Cointegration test suggested the existence of cointegration among the variables. The study used the OLS estimation procedure.The study found a positive and statistically significant relationship between oil price and economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, an inverse relationship was found between crude oil consumption and economic growth in the long run.Based on the findings the study recommends that the government diversify the economy to reduce the shock the economy might experience in times of oil price shocks. Further, risk management instruments like physical reserves and hedging against oil prices should also be employed.Also, the study recommends policies that encourage efficient consumption of crude oil, especially in the productive sectors like industry in order to trigger growth. This notwithstanding, the study recommends effective measures to mitigate the externalities associated with increased production and consumption of crude oil, such as the carbon tax.

scholarly journals The response of corporate investments in the US to oil price changes: the role of asymmetries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Aktham I. Maghyereh ◽  
Basel Awartani
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Corporate Investments ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Us ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the influence of oil on corporate investments in the US. The inference is taken from a large sample which contains data on 15,411 companies over the period that extended from 1984 to 2017. It adds to the literature by showing that non-oil corporate investments in the US respond asymmetrically to oil price changes. In particular, when the oil price increases, the capital spending of companies suffers by more than it benefits from the declines in the price of oil. These results are important in assessing the impact of energy price fluctuations on the long-term investment decisions of US companies.   

scholarly journals Welfare Effect of Monetary Financing

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Tersoo Shimonkabir SHITILE ◽  
Abubakar SULE
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study ascertained the direction and asymmetric pass-through of central bank’s monetary financing to welfare in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period 1970 to 2018. The study depended on both the Monetarist and Keynesian theoretical postulations to provide insights on the policy significance of monetary financing. To undertake the empirical analysis, the study applied both the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. Unlike the ARDL equation, the estimated NARDL equation established that welfare losses respond negatively to both positive and negative changes in monetary financing; but the impact of negative monetary financing shock (7.11) is greater than the positive shock (2.87). In addition, the study found that it takes about 9 to 11 quarters for the changes in positive and negative monetary financing to fully release its effects on welfare loss. Besides, the results revealed that welfare loss is also driven by oil price, which is suggestive from oil price pass-through to domestic prices (exchange rate and consumer prices). The study, therefore, supports monetary financing in proper amounts and conditions to boost aggregate nominal demand but not to spur a fully-fledged monetary policy capture in the process.

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