scholarly journals A formal assessment of new-developmentalist theory and policy*

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARIEL DVOSKIN ◽  
GERMÁN DAVID FELDMAN
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Ratio ◽  
Effective Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Money Wage ◽  
Formal Framework ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Pattern Of Specialization ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT We develop a formal framework that endogeneizes the productive structure of a small open peripheral economy as the outcome of a problem of technical choices. We subsequently examine the main theoretical theses and policy prescriptions of the New-Developmentalist approach to economic growth. We argue that: a) not only does the pattern of specialization depend on technical conditions, but also on income distribution; b) in an economy without rents, the level of the money wage-nominal exchange rate ratio is univocally determined once the rate of profits is known, and shows an inverse relationship with it; c) if differential rents are considered, the level of the rate of profits can be set independently of the money wage-exchange rate ratio; d) the level of the exchange rate that ensures normal profitability of the primary sector need not coincide with the current-account equilibrium rate; e) the effective exchange rate need not gravitate around any of these two former levels, which must be rather seen as minimum thresholds of the effective rate; f) the unpleasant distributive consequences of exchange-rate depreciation can be partially avoided by means of export duties that do not raise primary-commodities production costs.

scholarly journals Portfolio Investment Flows, GDP, and Investment in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Roberto Meurer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
The Real ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows have grown substantially in recent decades, following changes in the international financial system. In Brazil, FPI represented 66% of foreign direct investment between 1995 and 2009, which makes it meaningful to analyze these flows. In this paper, the relationships between FPI flows to Brazil, GDP, investment, and financial variables from 1995 to 2009 are analyzed, employing quarterly data and applying descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, and Granger causality tests. Results show a positive relationship between flows, GDP, and investment. Relationships between flows and financial variables show a strong relationship between FPI and the real effective exchange rate, which could be one of the channels through which the flows are related to real variables by means of changes in relative domestic and foreign production costs. Expectations about future behavior of the economy seem to be an important explanation for the relationship between flows and the real variables. Because FPI is volatile and this volatility relates to real variables through the real effective exchange rate and the interest rate, there is a case to be made for the implementation of capital controls.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Management and Economic Growth: A Brewing Crisis in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 73-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naved Hamid ◽  
Azka Sarosh Mir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The Real ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Target

In this article it is argued that Pakistan has had a consistently overvalued exchange rate and the policy with regards to management of the exchange rate has undergone a significant change in recent years. We show that prior to March 2013, the policy target of the exchange management was stability of the real effective exchange rate. However, during the tenure of the current government, the policy target for exchange rate management seems to have been stability of the nominal exchange rate against the US dollar. As the currencies of Pakistan’s major trading partners (UK, Europe and China) have depreciated against the dollar during this period, the real effective exchange rate has appreciated by over 20 percent since the time that the current policy makers took office. Overvaluation in general and the recent reversal in the exchange rate management policy in particular have had an adverse impact on exports and the manufacturing sector. This not only has serious negative consequences for the long term, growth of the economy, but has greatly increased the short-term risk of a balance of payments crisis.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

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