Intensity-duration-frequency curves in the municipality of Belo Horizonte from the perspective of non-stationarity

RBRH ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aline de Araújo Nunes ◽  
Eber José de Andrade Pinto ◽  
Márcio Benedito Baptista ◽  
Mhaisa Henrique de Paula ◽  
Mateus Oliveira Xavier
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Belo Horizonte ◽  
Minimax Design ◽  
Frequency Curves

ABSTRACT The study of changes in hydrological data series is of great scientific and practical importance for water resources systems, since these are normally projected based on the assumption that time series is statistically stationary. However, such assumption may not be verified when aspects as changes or climatic variability are considered. In this sense, the present study sought to identify trends in maximum rainfall intensities in Belo Horizonte (MG) and propose, in view of the observed results, a new intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve from the perspective of non-stationarity. For the trend analysis, statistical tests were applied, and an adaptation of the concept “Minimax Design Life Level” was proposed to quantify rainfall intensities and fit a non-stationary IDF curve. As a result, different trends were detected, with an increase in rainfall intensities for durations equal to or less than 1 hour starting in 2000. Regarding the IDF relationships, the obtained rain intensities were up to 48% higher than current estimates. Our results emphasize the need to periodically review IDF relationships in order to avoid under or overestimation in the design of hydraulic structures.

scholarly journals ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY PARAMETERS OF INTENSE RAINFALL FOR THE STATE OF ALAGOAS, BRAZIL

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 314-325
Author(s):  
João Batista Lopes da Silva ◽  
Nicole Lopes Bento ◽  
Gabriel Soares Lopes Gomes ◽  
Alcinei Ribeiro Campos ◽  
Danilo Paulúcio da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Using Data

The study of the rainfall characteristics is of fundamental importance since the frequency of floods has increased in several parts of Brazil due to anthropic impacts of climatic changes. Thus, this study aimed to determine the parameters of the intense rainfall equation (K, a, b, c) for 52 municipalities in the State of Alagoas using data from 164 rain gauges ta available from the National Water Agency (ANA). The data series were subjected to consistency analysis and further desegregation of maximum daily rainfall to durations of the 5; 10; 15; 20; 25; 30; 60; 360; 480; 600; 720 and 1,440 minutes and return period of 5; 10; 25; 50 and 100 years according to different probabilistic models. The adjustment of the parameters was carried out by means of non-linear regression, with R² greater than 0.949 for all the stations, considering for this purpose one station per municipality, totaling 51 municipalities of study. It was obtained that the maximum rainfall intensity predicted increases with the increase in the return period and decreases with the increase of the duration of the rain. The greater intensities were detected in the mesoregion of Eastern Alagoano and the lowest intensities in the mesoregion of Sertão Alagoano.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Design Storms for Urban Drainage System Applications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balbastre-Soldevila ◽  
García-Bartual ◽  
Andrés-Doménech
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

The present research develops a systematic application of a selected family of 11 well-known design storms, all of them obtained from the same rainfall data sample. Some of them are fully consistent with the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, while others are built according to typical observed patterns in the historical rainfall series. The employed data series consists on a high-resolution rainfall time series in Valencia (Spain), covering the period from 1990 to 2012. The goal of the research is the systematic comparison of these design storms, paying special attention to some relevant quantitative properties, as the maximum rainfall intensity, the total cumulative rainfall depth or the temporal pattern characterising the synthetic storm. For comparison purposes, storm duration was set to 1 hour and return period equal to 25 years in all cases. The comparison is enhanced by using each of the design storms as rainfall input to a calibrated urban hydrology rainfall–runoff model, yielding to a family of hydrographs for a given neighbourhood of the city of Valencia (Spain). The discussion and conclusions derived from the present research refer to both, the comparison between design storms and the comparison of resulting hydrographs after the application of the mentioned rainfall–runoff model. Seven of the tested design storms yielded to similar overall performance, showing negligible differences in practice. Among them, only Average Variability Method (AVM) and Two Parameter Gamma function (G2P) incorporate in their definition a temporal pattern inferred from empirical patterns identified in the historical rainfall data used herein. The remaining four design storms lead to more significant discrepancies attending both to the rainfall itself and to the resulting hydrograph. Such differences are ~8% concerning estimated discharges.

Design Inflow Intensity and Design Inflow Profiles for Storm Sewers

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 207-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frans H M van de Ven
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Design Discharge ◽  
Common Location ◽  
Housing Area ◽  
Parking Lot ◽  
Box Cox Transformation ◽  
Frequency Curves

Twelve year records of rainfall and of sewer inflow data in a housing area and in a parking lot in Lelystad were available. These data series contained 5-minute depths of rainfall and sewer inflow. Depth-duration-frequency curves were calculated from the monthly extremes, using Box-Cox transformation and a Gumbel distribution. The differences between the curves for rainfall and for inflow are explained by inertia and rainfall losses. These differences are the reason to use inflow as a sewer design parameter. Forthe choice of the design discharge (or inflow) intensity the curves are not well suited. Storage-design,discharge-frequency curves proved to be better interprétable. The selected design discharge is 4 or 5 m3/s/km2. For non-steady flow calculations in sewer systems an inflow profile has to be provided. The prof ileshould be peaked. The most common location of the peak lies between 20 and 50% of the event duration. The return period of the profile has to be known. A bivariate extreme value distribution is used to estimate this return period. From these distributions synthetic inflow profiles could be calculated.

Development of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Based on Dynamically Downscaled Climate Data: Arizona Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 05021005
Author(s):  
Amin Mohebbi ◽  
Simin Akbariyeh ◽  
Montasir Maruf ◽  
Ziyan Wu ◽  
Juan Carlos Acuna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Frequency Curves

scholarly journals Stationary and Non-Stationary Frameworks for Extreme Rainfall Time Series in Southern Italy

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide De Luca ◽  
Luciano Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events

This study tests stationary and non-stationary approaches for modelling data series of hydro-meteorological variables. Specifically, the authors considered annual maximum rainfall accumulations observed in the Calabria region (southern Italy), and attention was focused on time series characterized by heavy rainfall events which occurred from 1 January 2000 in the study area. This choice is justified by the need to check if the recent rainfall events in the new century can be considered as very different or not from the events occurred in the past. In detail, the whole data set of each considered time series (characterized by a sample size N > 40 data) was analyzed, in order to compare recent and past rainfall accumulations, which occurred in a specific site. All the proposed models were based on the Two-Component Extreme Value (TCEV) probability distribution, which is frequently applied for annual maximum time series in Calabria. The authors discussed the possible sources of uncertainty related to each framework and remarked on the crucial role played by ergodicity. In fact, if the process is assumed to be non-stationary, then ergodicity cannot hold, and thus possible trends should be derived from external sources, different from the time series of interest: in this work, Regional Climate Models’ (RCMs) outputs were considered in order to assess possible trends of TCEV parameters. From the obtained results, it does not seem essential to adopt non-stationary models, as significant trends do not appear from the observed data, due to a relevant number of heavy events which also occurred in the central part of the last century.

scholarly journals Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at the global scale

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Courty ◽  
Robert Wilby ◽  
John Hillier ◽  
Louise Slater
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Frequency Curves

scholarly journals Design Values for Precipitation and Floods from M5 Values

2000 ◽  
Vol 31 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 357-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Elíasson
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Statistical Distribution ◽  
Engineering Research ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
The University ◽  
Frequency Curves

The M5 method, originally proposed by the Natural Resource Council in UK, is used for estimating precipitation in Iceland. In this method the M5 (24-hour precipitation with 5-year return period) is used as an index variable. Instead of the usual approach in estimating regional values of the coefficient of variation another coefficient, Ci is used. The M5 and the Ci define together a generalised distribution that can be utilised to estimate the statistical distribution of precipitation anywhere in the country. M5 maps have been prepared for this purpose by the Engineering Research Institute of the University of Iceland. Methods have been devised to derive PMP values from the M5 values. This paper describes the method and gives examples of calculation. It is also shown that the same CDF applies for the observations of shorter duration precipitation available in Iceland. By applying the principle of identical statistical distribution for standardised annual maxima of any duration, IDF (Intensity – Duration – Frequency) curves have been derived. This allows the IDF – values to be calculated on basis of M5 and Ci, which are the two-parameters that define the generalised precipitation distribution.

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