Modeling of the Process of the Management Innovation Decision Making under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-68
Author(s):  
Galina L. Verbitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Management Innovation ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty

scholarly journals Application of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty at modelling of costs

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Beranová ◽  
D. Martinovičová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Accounting ◽  
Cost Functions ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Theorem ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost

The costs functions are mentioned mostly in the relation to the Break-even Analysis where they are presented in the linear form. But there exist several different types and forms of cost functions. Fist of all, it is necessary to distinguish between the short-run and long-run cost function that are both very important tools of the managerial decision making even if each one is used on a different level of management. Also several methods of estimation of the cost function's parameters are elaborated in the literature. But all these methods are based on the past data taken from the financial accounting while the financial accounting is not able to separate the fixed and variable costs and it is also strongly adjusted to taxation in the many companies. As a tool of the managerial decision making support, the cost functions should provide a vision to the future where many factors of risk and uncertainty influence economic results. Consequently, these random factors should be considered in the construction of cost functions, especially in the long-run. In order to quantify the influences of these risks and uncertainties, the authors submit the application of the Bayesian Theorem.

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering

2018 ◽  
pp. 139-160
Author(s):  
Tetiana Shmelova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Navigation Systems ◽  
International Civil Aviation Organization ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Professional Activities

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risks in the Face of Rapidly Advancing Technologies

2019 ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
Vicente González-Prida Díaz ◽  
Jesus Pedro Zamora Bonilla ◽  
Pablo Viveros Gunckel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Perception ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Reduction Of Uncertainty

This chapter aims to consider the effects of the new concept Industry 4.0 on decision making, particularly on the reduction of uncertainty and the risk associated with any choice between alternatives. For this purpose, this chapter begins by dealing with the concepts of risk and uncertainty and their epistemological evolution. After observing certain trends and recent studies in this regard, the authors address a more philosophical perception of risk, mainly on aspects related to engineering and social perception. The concept of human reliability will also be reviewed and how it can be improved with the application of emerging technologies, considering some methodological proposals to improve the decision making. After that, some of the possible future research directions will be briefly discussed. Finally, the chapter concludes by highlighting key aspects of the chapter as a context for other chapters in the book.

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