reduction of uncertainty
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2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Gia Zoidze

The article overviews that international organizations play an important role in managing and reforming the security sector. These organizations provide expertise, advice, and knowledge enhancements on security issues; Trainings on financial capacity building issues; Programs and projects on important topics such as technical skills development, security sector management, oversight and conscientiousness. In recent times, a number of studies have been devoted to the prospects of NATO-Georgia relations and its deepening. There are always conversations about the reasons why Georgia needs to join Euro-Atlantic Alliance. However, in this regard, Georgia first needs to give NATO member states some important reasons why they would benefit from Georgia's membership in Euro-Atlantic Alliance. The main reason for this may be the fact that without a secure and stable Black Sea region, the security and stability of Europe is inconceivable. According to the author of the article, the process of rapprochement and eventual accession to NATO, in addition to guaranteeing security, promotes and improves the institutional framework of the economy, the rule of law, effective governance systems, corporate security, and the reduction of uncertainty and externalities, which, in turn, provides stability, reduces political risk, facilitates foreign direct investment and trade. Consequently, liberalizing the country's economy and shifting to market principles reduces social pressures, ensures increased prosperity and the accumulation of wealth. As a result, society becomes more protected and less vulnerable when it comes to various types of external and internal shocks.


Perception ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 343-366
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Einhäuser ◽  
Annalena Sandrock ◽  
Alexander C. Schütz

A major objective of perception is the reduction of uncertainty about the outside world. Eye-movement research has demonstrated that attention and oculomotor control can subserve the function of decreasing uncertainty in vision. Here, we ask whether a similar effect exists for awareness in binocular rivalry, when two distinct stimuli presented to the two eyes compete for awareness. We tested whether this competition can be biased by uncertainty about the stimuli and their relevance for a perceptual task. Specifically, we have stimuli that are perceptually difficult (i.e., carry high perceptual uncertainty) compete with stimuli that are perceptually easy (low perceptual uncertainty). Using a no-report paradigm and reading the dominant stimulus continuously from the observers’ eye movements, we find that the perceptually difficult stimulus becomes more dominant than the easy stimulus. This difference is enhanced by the stimuli’s relevance for the task. In trials with task, the difference in dominance emerges quickly, peaks before the response, and then persists throughout the trial (further 10 s). However, the difference is already present in blocks before task instruction and still observable when the stimuli have ceased to be task relevant. This shows that perceptual uncertainty persistently increases perceptual dominance, and this is magnified by task relevance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-228
Author(s):  
Caroline Blunt

This article unpacks the status and significance of informal social infrastructures within the Syrian Vulnerable Person’s Resettlement Scheme (SVPRS) in one region of the UK to offer a case study exemplifying an enduring and renewed political embeddedness of informalities as an idiosyncratically British way of governing migrant incorporation and producing social order. From the perspective of the scheme’s formal design, this was ‘bottom-up’, ‘community-led’ activity for community or ‘social’ integration. For refugees this was the existence and availability of a quality of sociality productive of a sense of existence and a viable and possible life, in other words, defining – above and beyond discrete domains or material things - what had been hoped for and expected from resettlement. Where this ‘informal social infrastructure’ was available, refugees conveyed an experience of positive processes of life, resonating with discussions of existential movement. Where unavailable refugees conveyed experience of a persistent or even worsened sense of biographical interruption that forced migration has been likened to. The article aims to contribute to informalities scholarship in relation to the imbrication of informal-formal as means of governance and attest to the significance of informalities to the reduction of uncertainty, production of stability.  


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246759
Author(s):  
Xuejun Jin ◽  
Rui Li ◽  
Yu Zhu

With data collected from a directed social trading network, this paper investigates how social interaction affects the disposition effect. We constantly observe a negative association between them: After being exposed to social interaction, a trader’s odds ratio to sell a paper gain stock decreases by 9% to 10%, depending on different model settings. We then test the mechanisms of social interaction by decomposing it into three channels: learning intensity (willingness to learn), learning quality (information advantage through learning), and public scrutinization (exposure of trading outcome to others). We find that all three channels contribute to a smaller disposition effect. Specifically, our findings support the claim that public scrutinization promotes self-consciousness and reduces disposition effect. Also, our results extend previous studies on investors’ information advantage by suggesting that it could also help to mitigate the disposition effect through the reduction of uncertainty. Overall, this paper suggests a positive role of social trading platforms in helping investors make better decisions.


Author(s):  
Richard Otis ◽  
Brandon Bocklund ◽  
Zi‐Kui Liu

AbstractThe development of a consistent framework for Calphad model sensitivity is necessary for the rational reduction of uncertainty via new models and experiments. In the present work, a sensitivity theory for Calphad was developed, and a closed‐form expression for the log‐likelihood gradient and Hessian of a multi‐phase equilibrium measurement was presented. The inherent locality of the defined sensitivity metric was mitigated through the use of Monte Carlo averaging. A case study of the Cr–Ni system was used to demonstrate visualizations and analyses enabled by the developed theory. Criteria based on the classical Cramér–Rao bound were shown to be a useful diagnostic in assessing the accuracy of parameter covariance estimates from Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The developed sensitivity framework was applied to estimate the statistical value of phase equilibria measurements in comparison with thermochemical measurements, with implications for Calphad model uncertainty reduction.


Author(s):  
Maria Staudte ◽  
Christine Ankener ◽  
Heiner Drenhaus ◽  
Matthew W. Crocker

AbstractRecently, Ankener et al. (Frontiers in Psychology, 9, 2387, 2018) presented a visual world study which combined both attention and pupillary measures to demonstrate that anticipating a target results in lower effort to integrate that target (noun). However, they found no indication that the anticipatory processes themselves, i.e., the reduction of uncertainty about upcoming referents, results in processing effort (cf. Linzen and Jaeger, Cognitive Science, 40(6), 1382–1411, 2016). In contrast, Maess et al. (Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 10, 1–11, 2016) found that more constraining verbs elicited a higher N400 amplitude than unconstraining verbs. The aim of the present study was therefore twofold: Firstly, we examined whether the graded ICA effect, which was previously found on the noun as a result of a likelihood manipulation, replicates in ERP measures. Secondly, we set out to investigate whether the processes leading to the generation of expectations (derived during verb and scene processing) induce an N400 modulation. Our results confirm that visual context is combined with the verb’s meaning to establish expectations about upcoming nouns and that these expectations affect the retrieval of the upcoming noun (modulated N400 on the noun). Importantly, however, we find no evidence for different costs in generating more or less specific expectations for upcoming nouns. Thus, the benefits of generating expectations are not associated with any costs in situated language comprehension.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Kreis ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Steffen Moritz ◽  
Gerit Pfuhl

Aberrant attribution of salience to in fact little informative events might explain the emergence of positive symptoms in schizophrenia and has been linked to belief uncertainty. Uncertainty is thought to be encoded by neuromodulators, including norepinephrine. However, norepinephrinergic encoding of uncertainty, measured as task-related pupil dilation, has rarely been explored in schizophrenia. Here, we addressed this question by comparing individuals with a disorder from the schizophrenia spectrum to a non-psychiatric control group on behavioral and pupillometric measures in a probabilistic prediction task, where different levels of uncertainty were introduced. Behaviorally, patients performed similar to controls, but their belief uncertainty was higher, particularly when instability of the task environment was high, suggesting an increased sensitivity to this instability. Furthermore, while pupil dilation scaled positively with uncertainty in the control group, this was not the case for patients, suggesting aberrant neuromodulatory regulation of neural gain, which may hinder the reduction of uncertainty in the long run. Together, the findings point to abnormal uncertainty processing and norepinephrinergic signaling in schizophrenia, potentially informing future development of both psychopharmacological therapies and psychotherapeutic approaches that deal with the processing of uncertain information.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1/s) ◽  
pp. 149-157
Author(s):  
Lola Khazratkulova

The article describes preconditions and specifics of transition to mid-term planning of the state budget in the Republic of Uzbekistan. It generalizes successful international experience of targeted budgeting program. It proves that the advantages of mid-term budget planning, first of all, include stabilization of fiscal policy and macroeconomic situation in whole, as it means public awareness of government policy for several years ahead, reduction of uncertainty and risks for business, and for foreign investors and international rating agencies it allows to assess the level of capital investment risks and ultimately, serves for improvement of investment environment, raise life standard of the population


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