Abstract
Mount Gonggais located in the east of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; many debris flows have occurred in small basins with a small glacier cover or snow cover in this area. The hydrometeorological conditions that caused debris flows in this region are complex, making forecasting and early warning difficult. Previous studies for these small-glacial-covered basins have primarily considered rainfall as the only inducing factor of debris flows, and often the effects of temperature are neglected. Thus, we carried out a probabilistic analysis of variables derived from hydrometeorological factors for the Mount Gongga region, Sichuan, China, where debris flows were recorded on 14 days between 1988 and 2019. By analyzing hydrological characteristics when debris flows occurred, three distinct dominant trigger types could be identified. The results show that 7 (50%) of the observed debris flow events during the study period, high-intensity rainfall was the dominant trigger, snowmelt by high temperature was identified as the dominant trigger for 2 (14%). Furthermore, 5 (36%) debris flow events could be attributed to the combined effects of long-lasting (or short-medium) rainfall and sustained higher temperatures. We find that the differences between the trigger types are statistically significant, and a susceptibility prediction differentiating between trigger types can outperform simple rainfall-only situations. This study contributes to an improved understanding of the hydrometeorological impact on debris flow initiation in high elevation watersheds.
Dynamic Process Analysis and Hazard Prediction of Debris Flow in Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Area—A Case Study at Ridi Gully
