Performance of Two Hydrological Models in Predicting Daily Flow under a Climate Change Scenario for Mountainous Catchments in Northwestern Costa Rica

Under the A2 climate change scenario, the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin are predicted by coupling the general circulation models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The future precipitation and temperature are obtained by downscaling CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs using the Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) method, and then they are used as input to the two parameter monthly water balance model and the distributed VIC model, respectively, to predict the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin. The results of both hydrological models show that the future runoffs projected on the basis of CGCM2 outputs will decrease in 2020s (2011~2040), increase in 2080s (2071~2100), and show no significant change in 2050s (2041~2070), when compared to the average level of runoff during the baseline period of 1961~2000. For the A2 climate change scenario simulated by HadCM3 outputs, the future runoffs simulated by both hydrological models will increase in 2050s and 2080s. While for 2020s, decrease is predicted by the two parameter monthly water balance model, but no significant change is predicted by the distributed VIC model.

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Variability Analysis of Climate Extreme Index using Downscaled Multi-models and Grid-based CMIP5 Climate Change Scenario Data

Journal of Climate Change Research ◽

10.15531/ksccr.2020.11.2.123 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 123-132

Author(s):

Jae-Pil Cho ◽

Jae-Uk Kim ◽

Soon-Kun Choi ◽

Sye-Woon Hwang ◽

Hui-Cheul Jung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Extreme Index ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Variability Analysis ◽

Grid Based

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Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽

10.3390/land10040385 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 385

Author(s):

Beatrice Nöldeke ◽

Etti Winter ◽

Yves Laumonier ◽

Trifosa Simamora

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Agroforestry System ◽

Environmental Benefits ◽

Small Scale ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Trees On Farms ◽

Agroforestry Adoption ◽

Mitigate Climate Change ◽

Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

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