Heat-Induced Labour Capacity Loss in Climate Change Scenario – What Does the Future Hold?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidhya Venugopal ◽  
PK Latha ◽  
Rekha Shanmugam ◽  
Tord Kjellstrom
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Capacity Loss ◽  
The Future

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Chhetri ◽  
Hemant K. Badola ◽  
Sudip Barat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Azimuth Angle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

scholarly journals Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4511
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ping Wei ◽  
Yuan-Fong Su ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Keh-Chia Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Meteorological Research Institute ◽  
The Future ◽  
Overtopping Probability ◽  
Southern Taiwan

With the growing concern about the failure risk of river embankments in a rapidly changing climate, this study aims to quantify the overtopping probability of river embankment in Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan. A water level simulation model is calibrated and validated with historical typhoon events and the calibrated model is further used to assess overtopping risk in the future under a climate change scenario. A dynamic downscaled projection dataset, provided by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has been further downscaled to 5-km grids and bias-corrected with a quantile mapping method, is used to simulate the water level of Kao-Ping River in the future. Our results highlighted that the overtopping risk of Kao-Ping River increased by a factor of 5.7~8.0 by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

GeoHealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 278-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Muhling ◽  
John Jacobs ◽  
Charles A. Stock ◽  
Carlos F. Gaitan ◽  
Vincent S. Saba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Vibrio Species ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Emission

scholarly journals Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Theodoros Christoudias ◽  
Andrea Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Pollutant Transport ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. We find that NAO trends will continue to interchange in the future considering variable length periods, while the overall trend (150 years) is weakly positive. To investigate the future NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at end of the century south-west Mediterranean and Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past. On the contrary, central Europe and a wider part of north Europe will benefit from increased pollutant depletion. Therefore, under a global climate change scenario local air quality conditions over Europe and North Africa, influenced by North Atlantic teleconnection activity, will become more extreme.

Prediction of the Future Runoff of the Upper Hanjiang Basin under the Climate Change Conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 4194-4200
Author(s):  
Jing Guo ◽  
Kai Yu Cheng ◽  
Li Hua Xiong ◽  
Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
Two Parameter

Under the A2 climate change scenario, the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin are predicted by coupling the general circulation models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The future precipitation and temperature are obtained by downscaling CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs using the Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) method, and then they are used as input to the two parameter monthly water balance model and the distributed VIC model, respectively, to predict the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin. The results of both hydrological models show that the future runoffs projected on the basis of CGCM2 outputs will decrease in 2020s (2011~2040), increase in 2080s (2071~2100), and show no significant change in 2050s (2041~2070), when compared to the average level of runoff during the baseline period of 1961~2000. For the A2 climate change scenario simulated by HadCM3 outputs, the future runoffs simulated by both hydrological models will increase in 2050s and 2080s. While for 2020s, decrease is predicted by the two parameter monthly water balance model, but no significant change is predicted by the distributed VIC model.

scholarly journals The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Antúnez ◽  
Mario Suárez-Mota ◽  
César Valenzuela-Encinas ◽  
Faustino Ruiz-Aquino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Change Impact

Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for assessment of impact of climatic change, impact of human activity and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Née) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future.

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

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