scholarly journals Determinants Of Long-Term Interest Rates In The United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Charles Kweku Konadu-Adjei ◽  
Roger W. Mayer ◽  
Wen-Wen Chien
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Private And Public

The behavior of the long-term interest rates is a practical problem for private and public organizations. Organizations need to estimate interest rates for purposes of assigning value to long-term obligations such as defined benefit plans and long-term leases and making decisions related to long term capital purchases. The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States, using 352 quarterly time series data points extending from 1999 to 2009. This study examines how a change in overnight interest rates, budget deficit, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and net capital inflow impact on long-term interest rates, which is the 30-year U.S. Treasury constant securities rate. We find that the variables (overnight interest rates, expected inflation, budget deficit, foreign capital inflow, and GDP) have statistically significant impact on long-term interest rates in the United States; all variables jointly explain changes in the long-term interest rates. The findings of this study can assist organization as they assign values to long-term obligations and assets.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI EKSPOR NONMIGAS INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Editiawarman Editiawarman ◽  
Idris Idris
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect

In this study the study of Analysis of factors affecting IndonesianNon-oil and gas exports to America and the data used in this study isquarterly time series data from 2007Q1-2018Q. The model used in thisstudy is the Error Correction Model / ECM. Data sourced from the WorldBank and the Ministry of Trade. The results of this study indicate that (1)the estimated economy of the United States in the long term and short termhas a significant positive relationship to Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the United States (2) a significant negative effect on Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the United States (3) Foreign direct investment or investment foreign direct in the long run, has a significant positive and in the short term does not have a significant and positive influence on non-oil and gas exports Indonesia to the United States.

Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Sari Yuniarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Investment Financing ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

تحليل الاثار المالية والنقدية لتزايد الدين العام الداخلي في الولايات المتحدة الامريكية للمدة 2002- 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 2020 (67) ◽  
pp. 75-100
Author(s):  
مالك عبد الرحيم محمد ◽  
أ.د. ميثم العيبي إسماعيل
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Market Access ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
American Economy

The American economy suffers from a general budget deficit, mainly due to the high public expenditures, especially the military, as the United States of America occupies the first place in the world in the proportion of military spending, and the budget deficit is mainly financed through the sale of government securities, which led to an increase in the volume of public debt In the United States of America, which is a dangerous indicator, especially after interest payments on public debt exceeded the barrier of $ 500 billion for the year 2018, which pushes them to borrow again to finance these benefits, this cumulative and continuous increase in the size of public debt works to influence the economic variables Monetary and financial. The research aims to analyze the development of internal public debt in the United States of America and its most important causes, in addition to clarifying the mechanisms and methods used to alleviate the severity of the internal public debt without compromising the ability of the economy or the ability to repay previous debts to maintain investor confidence in the strength of the American economy. The research reached several results, the most prominent of which is that the large increase in the volume of the internal public debt and the consequent increase in the money supply did not negatively affect the monetary side of the economy as inflation rates did not reach high levels and international reserves increased, accompanied by a decrease in interest rates. While the research presented several recommendations, including the need to achieve financial discipline and market access to borrow at the lowest possible costs by issuing debt regularly, in addition to avoiding resorting to any special measures to increase the volume of public debt and adhere to the debt ceiling approved by the US Congress.

Investing for Growth and Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
President Obama ◽  
Transit Systems ◽  
Historical Levels

Besides its investment in people, the federal government makes critical investments in infrastructure and research and development. Because federal spending in these areas has fallen significantly in recent years and interest rates are low relative to historical levels, this chapter proposes sizable increases for both categories. The increases in infrastructure spending will provide the resources needed to restore and update aging roads, bridges, and public transit systems, while the increases in research and development will help the United States to explore cutting-edge technologies. Policymakers should also fund the military’s long-term plans through 2032, as outlined by President Obama, and let spending grow modestly afterward. That would allow for a continuing presence overseas. If a new war broke out, policymakers presumably would provide the additional temporary funds to ensure that America achieved its mission and emerged victorious.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo ◽  
Kranti Mulik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Trading Partners

This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.

scholarly journals Long-Term Timber Contracts in the Southeastern United States: Updating the Primer Valuation Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-665
Author(s):  
Hector I Restrepo ◽  
Bin Mei ◽  
Bronson P Bullock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Material Supply

Abstract Timberland ownership has drastically changed in the United States since the 1980s, driven by the divestitures of vertically integrated forest products companies. Having sold their timberland, forest products companies have exposed themselves more to the risk of raw material supply. To hedge against this risk, forest products companies usually use long-term timber contracts (LTTC). The objective of this article is to update the valuation framework for LTTCs proposed by Shaffer (1984) by including alternative option price models and refining the estimates of some key economic variables. In particular, conditional volatility from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and quasi-conditional volatility from rolling estimation windows, in addition to simple standard deviation, are used for the volatility estimates in the option pricing models. Contrary to the previous result by Shaffer (1984), our analysis suggests that LTTCs that were once profitable for forest products companies in the 1980s are no longer so under current market conditions. This is primarily because both timber price volatility and the risk-free interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, to be better off, forest products companies need to either lower the administration and management costs of those LTTCs or rely more on the open market for timber procurement. Study Implications: Forest products companies have traditionally relied on long-term timber contracts (LTTC) negotiated with forest landowners to mitigate the risk of raw material supply. The value of these LTTCs highly depends on the economic context. This research provides some insights into the valuation of LTTCs in the southeastern United States. Forest products companies can use this updated framework to aid their decisionmaking in timber procurement.

scholarly journals The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
The Political ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The U.S

Current surpluses in the U.S. have been achieved by a combination of a strong economy, low interest rates, and sharp cuts in defense spending. These surpluses follow a period (the 1980s) of rather exceptional budget deficit. This paper investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces may generate alternative fiscal scenarios for the U.S. in the next decade.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document