scholarly journals Causes of Current Account Fluctuations in West African Monetary Union

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63
Author(s):  
Amadou Woury Diallo

This study analyzes the sources of current account fluctuations in the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) economies over the period from 1980 to 2017. It is part of the inter-temporal approach which considers that the dynamics of the current account of a country is influenced by global shocks and transient or permanent domestic shocks. Thus, we developed a three-variable structural autoregressive vector model. This is the international real interest rate that represents the aggregate shock, the ratio of current account to gross domestic product which is the proxy for transient domestic shocks, and the ratio of net output to gross domestic product to measure impact of permanent shocks to the current account. From the theoretical model, structural shocks are identified by applying the long-term restrictions imposed by the inter-temporal approach in the analysis of current account dynamics. The study leads to three major results: 1) current account fluctuations within WAEMU are explained by transient domestic shocks, 2) net product fluctuations are due to permanent domestic shocks, 3) Global or exogenous shocks have a modest contribution to current account fluctuations, but their effects on net income are still significant, especially in the long run.

Author(s):  
Novi Ariyani ◽  
Fajar Wahyu Priyanto ◽  
Lilis Yuliati

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the export activity in the ASEAN region countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam during 2001 - 2016 by using annual data. The factors that influence gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and exchange rate. The method used in the research is panel Vector Error Correlation Model (PVECM). The results show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) negatively affects the current account in the short term. The interest rate variable negatively affects the current account in the long term. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) variable negatively affects the current account in the long term. Furthermore, the exchange rate variable negatively affects the current account in the long term.


1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4II) ◽  
pp. 627-645
Author(s):  
A. F. Aisha Ghaus ◽  
Hafiz A. Pasha

The National Finance Commission (NFC) award of 1991 has been acclaimed to be a historic achievement of the previous elected government. It has come after a gap of many years (due since 1979) and some abortive attempts earlier.! Meanwhile, the provinces had run into large, chronic deficits on the current account, indicating the growing inadequacy of divisible pool transfers as per the provisions of the 1974 award. Consequently, as an ad hoc provision, deficit grants and other subventions had been used increasingly to support the on-going operations of the provinces. At their peak in 1987-88, these grants were Rs 17 billion (see Table 1), equivalent to about 2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and financed over one-fourths of the provincial current expenditure. Also, the federal government took over the responsibility of provision of some provincial responsibilities as contained in the Concurrent List of the Constitution like SCARPS, flood control, fertiliser subsidy, universities, etc.


2020 ◽  
pp. 94-102
Author(s):  
NANA ASLAMAZISHVILI

So far, much has been written and discussed about the rapid variability and complex predictability of the global economy, and different countries have more or less successfully dealt with the challenges they face. However, the global threat posed by the world in the form of COVID-19 puts the methods and approaches to combating economic crises completely upside down. What should be the strategy and tactics of the countries to start recovering the economies as quickly as possible under such kind of circumstances? In such a situation, it should be the best way to “hurry up slowly,” that is, to be thoroughly consistent so that short-term emergency measures do not harm long-term goals. Given the conditions of coronomics and the lessons the world has learned from it at this stage, recovery of the economics, in the earlier sense of the term, should be completely ineffective. We are accustomed to the fact that in the post-crisis period, economic recovery in a sense implies a more or less back-off to what was before the crisis. Given that this time a completely different “crisis” is occurring, essential structural changes and important transformations in many areas of the economy are needed to overcome its consequences. One of the clear lessons that must to be learned from Coronomics is that returning to what was already before would not be the right course of action for the economies focused on the sustainable development. Georgia is a small open economy, and the fate of such economies has already been decided in advance: they will not be able to influence the global economy, and their efforts must be directed to protect themselves from the negative effects of the ongoing processes in the world. What are the priorities for such countries on this path if traditional sectors are vulnerable to certain types of crises and fail to cope with the task of generating revenue in extreme situations that are necessary, on the one hand, to balance their demands and, on the other hand, to meet external obligations? This is the reality that Georgia has faced in the face of coronomics. How did the Georgian economy meet the shock of COVID-19? 2019 will be a turning point in many years for assessing economic outcomes, not just in Georgia. What are the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and do they give a positive signal according to the data of this period? This article deals with the external economic aspects of these indicators. The current account deficit as of 2019 was $ 900.5 million, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product. Historically, this is the best indicator in the history of independent Georgia. On the other hand, historically, the country›s external liabilities, which amount to $ 34.5 billion, are 1.9 times higher than Gross Domestic Product and 3.2 times higher than the country›s foreign financial assets; The country›s external debt was 1.1 times higher than GDP at the end of 2019, while imports accounted for 40.8 percent of total consumption (intermediate and final). Thus, Georgia›s positioning on the challenges of COVID-19 is completely unfavorable and critical. This article aims to discuss the main aspects of the country›s foreign sector accounts, the profitable and deficient articles of the balance of payments that traditionally determine the state of the current account, and how vulnerable these items are to external factors and shocks. The focus on this issue is to explore the ways in which it is possible to reduce the degree of dependence of the country›s economy on foreign shocks and achieve external economic stability. However, it should be noted that the format of the article is not sufficient for in-depth discussion of a number of causeand-effect issues, for the evaluation of perspectives, and for deeper and more substantiated reasoning. Therefore, it can be said that the paper forms the main postulates on the issues under consideration, which together and each of them deserves in-depth research, but not in terms of fragmentary time and content, but in a complex and permanent mode.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Khaled Hasan Zubdeh

A prolonged fiscal deficit is an inheriting problem for the Palestinian economy. This leaves the Palestinian authorities unable to pay for salaries and other needed money to spend on the infrastructure, education, health, and other services. The main aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the budget deficit and some indicators, gross domestic product, balance of trade, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and current account, using ordinary least square and ARMA methods for collected quarterly data for the years 2000-2018, and applying the data to a number of other tests such as unit roots test, Johansen cointegration test, normal distribution test, heteroskedasticity test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, variance inflation factors, etcetera, using Eviews10 program. The study’s main findings showed a long-run cointegration relationship between the budget deficit and the independent variables included in the study. The gross domestic product, balance of trade, and unemployment rate have a significant negative relationship with the budget deficit, while the remaining variables, inflation rate and current account, have a significant positive relationship with budget deficit.


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