SUSTAINABLE RURAL TOURISM DEVELOPMENT RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 (IN ADJARA REGION)

Tourism is of particular importance to the world and many countries have chosen it as one of the main priorities of the country›s development. Based on the accepted practice and the critical ecological background, each country recognizes the sustainable socio-economic development of tourism, developing concepts, systematic and complex approaches, drafting of state action programs, long-term perspectives and other aspects whose existence and implementation depends on state government. Therefore, this field can bring significant positive socio-economic results compared to other fields of economy. Rural tourism is a pleasant and useful combination of two positive events. The first is the entrepreneurial activity that can bring other benefits to the entrepreneur and the second village where the main holidays are housed in which the tourist can get interesting services such as sanitation, cognitive, aesthetic or other. According to the UNWTO, rural tourism will be more popular after the pandemic, as tourists avoid crowded places and prefer to relax in ecologically clean environment. This new trend will be a positive event and previously unpopular places among tourists will become a source of income. This in itself will help stimulate the development of rural tourism after the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of the research is to study the opportunities of the rural tourism development after COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and in mountainous regions of Adjara. Main questions discussed in this paper are: to analyze the employment opportunities for the population of rural areas; to foresee the possible secondary income, how to reduce the migration of rural population, especially the youth; possibility to supply the locally produced goods and service and to increase their awareness; possibilities to develop tourism-related industries. The joint efforts of government, municipal authorities, and business providers, with involvement of rural area inhabitants, are essential for the development of rural populated territories

ON THE REFLECTION OF CORONOMICS IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC POLICY

The paper discusses the economic issues of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting coronomic crisis is not a typical economic crisis since the coronomic crisis was not formed in the economy itself but is the result of the inability of medicine to solve the pandemic problem. The coronomic crisis is, by its very nature, an atypical economic crisis and is fundamentally different from other atypical economic crises that took place in the XX century. The coronomic crisis put the issue of the “crisis of globalization” on the agenda. The coronomic crisis exposed the weaknesses of globalization. Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic is possible exclusively at the global level. The paper shows that the current process of de-globalization is “forced” by its nature and it will definitely be replaced by a qualitatively renewed process of globalization. Economic recovery from the corona crisis will be most successful only on the basis of the adherence to a free trade regime. In economic science, the problem of government intervention in the economy, especially during the pandemic and the post-pandemic period, is still relevant. The corona crisis has clearly confirmed the inability of inflation targeting to achieve macroeconomic stability. The coronomic crisis requires two approaches to economic policy. In particular, we mean an anti-crisis economic policy and a post-crisis economic policy. Economic incentives provided by the government to businesses contribute to the zombieing of the economy which will be one of the most difficult problems of the post-crisis period. The coronomic crisis made the issue of the economic security of each individual country even more urgent. The problem of ensuring food security is equally important. The economic policy of the post-crisis period must necessarily include measures to ensure a country’s food security. Since the possibility of a repetition of a pandemic in the future is similar to the current one, the problems of coronomics should remain in the field of study of economists for many years.

THE SCALE OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN GEORGIA AND EFFECTIVENESS OF PREVENTIVE MEASURES IMPLIMENTED BY THE GOVERNMENT – WHAT DO MODELS SAY?

. In this article we present forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 virus, obtained by econometric and machine learning methods. Furthermore, by employing modelling method, we estimate effectiveness of preventive measures implemented by the government. Each of the models discussed in this article is modelling different characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic’s trajectory: peak and end date, number of daily infections over different forecasting horizons, total number of infection cases. All these provide quite clear picture to the interested reader of the future threats posed by COVID-19. In terms of existing models and data, our research indicates that phenomenological models do well in forecasting the trend, duration and total infections of the COVID- 19 epidemic, but make serious mistakes in forecasting the number of daily infections. Machine learning models, deliver more accurate short –term forecast of daily infections, but due to data limitations, they struggle to make long-term forecasts. Compartmental models are the best choice for modelling the measures implemented by the government for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and determining optimal level of restrictions. These models show that until achieving herd immunity (i.e. without any epidemiological or government implemented measures), approximate number of people infected with COVID-19 would be 3 million, but due to preventive measures, expected total number of infections has reduced to several thousand (1555-3189) people. This unequivocally indicates the effectiveness of the preventive measures.

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN GEORGIA

Given the modern global conjuncture, technological innovation and creative thinking play a major role in the process of implementing entrepreneurial activities. The rapid development of digital technologies and the emergence of diverse digital platforms have given impetus to the transformation of entrepreneurial behavior and the conduct of entrepreneurial activities from the real - to the virtual environment. In the modern digital world, there is no alternative to technological entrepreneurship. 5G network, blockchain, 3D printing and other technological innovations make business processes faster, more reliable and flexible. The generation and implementation of continuous innovative ideas in technology has led to the emergence and development of information technology, digital technology, digital platforms, on which the modern form of entrepreneurship - digital entrepreneurship is based. One of the obstacles to the development of digital entrepreneurship in Georgia is the lack of proper access to digital technologies. At the same time, the population of Georgia has not yet developed the digital culture and skills that ensure the implementation of commercial activities in the virtual space. According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia in July 2019 in the country: 70.6% of households actively used the Internet, only 20.8% of them purchased goods and/or services through digital channels. In 2018, only 3.2% of enterprises received an order through the website. These data indicate the low level of Internet use by the public and, consequently, enterprises for commercial purposes. This untapped segment, at the same time, creates a solid potential for further development of digital entrepreneurship. Especially today, when physical mobility is restricted due to the worldwide pandemic COVID-19. Innovations and technologies are the main driving forces of modern entrepreneurship. Therefore, the emphasis of the Government of Georgia in this direction and the launch of appropriate economic policy instruments should positively support the transformation of the entrepreneurial environment and entrepreneurial behavior in the country. Given the current situation in Georgia, in order to identify and develop digital entrepreneurial opportunities, it would be appropriate to take the following measures: First, the state must ensure that more people have access to the Internet and digital technologies; Second, increase the scale of financial support programs for innovative and digital entrepreneurial initiatives, also, to help startups attract funding sources, to consult on opportunities to attract venture investments, to make it possible to implement a more technologically innovative idea; Third, primacy should be given to Georgian universities in the fields of entrepreneurship, innovation and technology, computer science; Fourth, the network of innovation centers should be expanded and similar educational spaces should be created to ensure the development of technical and entrepreneurial skills of the population (especially the rural population) in the field of innovation and technology.

THREATS OF ECONOMIC CRISES

The present article examines the historical aspects of the origin and development of various economic crises existing in the world, which constantly raises an issue of finding ways out of the problem, before scientists-researchers. In this regard, the author reviews the views of the representatives of the classical school of different epochs on the elimination of crises. In addition, the author also analyzes the directions proposed by modern scientists, the most notable of which is the theory of the real economic cycle as an independent direction, which laid the foundation for the systematic study of the economic crisis. Moreover, a conclusion that the slowdown in output growth in market conditions is not due to market inefficiency, but is due to low rates of technological development, and economic cycles are caused by technological shocks is notable. Based on the above assumption, scientists presented an argument, that the market can restore equilibrium without an outside intervention. The cyclical nature of crises followed by economic stimulus is also analyzed.

DEFENSE FINANCING FEATURES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW CHALLENGES

The beginning of the third millennium was marked by the desire of the leader countries (USA, China, and Russia) to geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic redistribution of spheres of influence. The collapse of the USSR, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact Organization, the end of the Cold War did not bring the world closer to stability and security. Military force capabilities continue to be considered as one of the most powerful factors in world politics. Proof of this is the intensification of the struggle of the world›s superpowers for regional and global leadership, control over oil, gas and energy flows. It is worth mentioning the Transnistrian conflict, Russia-Led wars in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Russian-Georgian war in August 2008, the civil war in Syria, the intensification of Islamic extremism within the ISIS, Russia›s annexation of Crimea, the hybrid war unleashed and continues to wage by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. In this connection, it is becoming increasingly important to provide corresponding levels for the defense budget funding. Thus, the study of the peculiarities of defense financing in Ukraine and powerful military superpowers is of considerable scientific, practical and political interest. Comparing the defense expenditures of different countries makes it possible to identify key problem issues in the defense financing of Ukraine and bring the corresponding costs to international standards. This indicator is one of the most important criteria that characterize the state›s desire for development, relevant combat readiness of the armed forces and other military forces in the face of new challenges. The last years of the previous century were characterized by global geopolitical changes and growing contradictions, which resulted in: the transformation of the bipolar model (USA - USSR) into a multipolar (powerful military superpowers - the USA, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, France, Japan, Germany, India, Brazil)); globalization of world economic processes; erosion through «hybrid wars», which are a new kind of global confrontation in today›s destabilized international security environment, the facets of the division between war and peace. The availability of weapons of mass destruction and high-precision weapons in the third millennium, the growth of their capacity, the complexity of military equipment and combat assets, the use of new methods and means of warfare have led to significant changes in the functions and tasks of the armed forces, increasing their number and government spending on defense purposes. Today there are about 200 armies in the world with a total number of 24-25 million people (about 0.4% of the world›s population) (Military..., 2002). The state of the troops of any state must correspond to its economic capabilities and at the same time ensure the implementation of national security tasks.

METHODOLOGICAL FEATURES OF DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR OF GEORGIA

The paper evaluates the importance of scientifically calculated indicators of competition and level of competitiveness for the effective functioning of food markets, especially for Georgia. The role of these indicators for producers and consumers is also substantiated. The methodological issues of measuring the level of competition in food markets are evaluated in the paper. The opinions of various researchers on this issue are analyzed. It is concluded that in Georgia, where the share of small enterprises is large and the import rate is high, in order to estimate the market share of small firms along with the concentration index, it is advisable to calculate the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices, as well as the entropy index and to determine the dispersion of market shares. To provide a comprehensive assessment of the level of competition and to provide complete information to stakeholders, it is advisable to use other features as well. It is argued that determining the level of competition requires, in addition to the indices, the analysis of various competitive factors. The article evaluates five key competitive factors based on wine market analysis: local market position; Local market growth potential; Economies of scale (cost / benefit analysis); Adapting to industry change; Potential for attracting foreign investors. The obtained results are compared with the data of the research conducted by foreign scientists according to the groups of traditional and new wine producers. Comparative analysis reveals methodological problems in determining the level of competition for the agro-food sector of Georgia. In order to successfully enter the food markets, it is advisable to calculate the level of competitiveness of the product. The level of product competitiveness in the current period is assessed by the "ex-post" method using the following indices: Revealed Competitiveness Advantage (RCA); Relative Advantages of Exports (RXA); By Relative Import Penetration (RMP); By Relative Trade Advantage (RTA). It is concluded that for Georgia, as a small country, to determine the level of competitiveness of agri-food products from two indices (RCA and RXA indices) it is recommended to use only the RCA index. The article identifies modern methodological approaches to determining the level of competition and competitiveness, draws conclusions based on their evaluation and offers recommendations for overcoming different problems.

FORMATION OF THE SYSTEM OF CORONASTATISTICS INDICATORS

The paper discusses Coronastatistics as a content of complex cognition, which is characterized by many aspects; it reflects not only the health care issues of the population, but also the issues of the economy: A system of their characteristic statistical indicators and its constituent blocks is proposed. Each of them gives a fairly wide range of both general and specific indicators. It is clear that health statistics indicators are particularly widespread, quantitatively characterizing the total number of Coronavirus-infected populations as well as their distribution by area, source of disease, sex, age, and other signs. The economic bloc presents statistical indicators, that characterize the impact of COVID-19 on the economic and business sectors and the consequences of its impact in the short, as well as medium and long term. Both, macro and microeconomic statistical measures are provided, as well as indicators for determining the size and range of reactions of small, medium and large businesses. The COVID-19 pandemic has more or less spread to almost every country, and it has had a significant unintended negative impact on all areas of public life, especially the economy and human social life. This impact is multifaceted and requires complex quantitative and qualitative research. Appropriate methodoland methodology, including statistics, are necessary for such research. Coronastatistics has a broad, complex content and includes not only quantitative indicators of the spread of the Coronavirus, but also the consequences of its impact on human health and social life, as well as economic, environmental, demographic, business and other areas. The system of Coronastatistics consists of many subsystems, or blocks. First of all, the groups of general and special indicators should be distinguished, which are created according to each field. The grouping is based on various essential traits such as field, area, demographic (biological) characteristics and many more. The calculated indicators will be represented as absolute and relative, as well as average, in the form of variation and indices. In addition, appropriate time series and correlation analysis indices should be used to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the first time in world history, the main cause of the current local, regional or global economic crisis is not directly in the economy or its management, but due to the impact of another, very strong exogenous factor - the COVID-19 pandemic. In such conditions, the need to expand the functions of the government is on the agenda. The state also takes the risk in managing the national economy, but it is somewhat different (Papava V., 2020: 138). It should also be noted that it is very difficult to accurately quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and business, both globally and locally (depending on the country), in the short or medium term. This begs the question: should economic and business change forecasts be calculated? The correct answer is: Of course, such predictions are needed. But they must be reliable enough. "In economics and business, forecasting serves as a compass that shows you where to go." (Gelashvili, S., 2019: 13). Therefore, in this case, it is more appropriate to calculate the interval statistical forecasts on the principle of collaborative forecasting, especially in the field of business, through which it is possible to carry out an operational response to specific market processes (Gelashvili, S., 2017: 259). The article presents the systems of coronastatics indicators developed by the author in the fields of economics and healthcare, which allows for a complex quantitative analysis and the development of appropriate recommendations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the managerial and preventive functions of the statistics were particularly evident. Without complete and reliable information and proper indicators, it is impossible to make sound and optimal decisions at all hierarchical levels and under any conditions, including pandemics or normal living conditions. The complex system of Coronastatistics indicators, proposed by the author, allows typological, structural and analytical grouping of data on COVID-19, which is an important condition for conducting relevant qualitative and quantitative analysis.

THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ON THE FORMS AND STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT

The coronavirus pandemic almost immediately led to a global narrowing of the global economy, a sharp reduction in aggregate supply and demand. The decline in production was especially felt in the second quarter of 2020, when the recession in most countries of the world had a double-digit value. According to IMF forecasts, in general, the economy in developed countries, even in 2021, will not reach the level of 2019. The global economic downturn is accompanied by a massive reduction in jobs, rising unemployment, especially in industries that are focused on foreign markets and serving foreign consumers (export production, reception and service of foreign tourists, international transportation, etc.). The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus also hit global economic and technological ties, led to their widespread fail in many geographical points of the planet, and increased the risk of fragmentation and regionalization of the global market. All this was adequately reflected in change of global demand for labor, in a significant transformation of the structure, size and location of employment, and the state of the labor market as a whole. At the same time, the global crisis did not equally affect the level of employment in different types of activity, the formation of demand for labor, the labor market as a whole; the structure of jobs and employment in individual professions, instead of a proportional change, was uneven - mainly in an asymmetric form.