scholarly journals Qualitative Modelling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and the Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximilien Cosme ◽  
Christelle Hély ◽  
Franck Pommereau ◽  
Paolo Pasquariello ◽  
Christel Tiberi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
East African ◽  
African Savanna ◽  
Qualitative Modelling ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Economic Transitions

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

scholarly journals Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Maximilien Cosme ◽  
Christelle Hély ◽  
Franck Pommereau ◽  
Paolo Pasquariello ◽  
Christel Tiberi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Qualitative Modeling ◽  
East African ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
African Savanna ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Economic Transitions

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modeling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modeling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem responses to perturbations, while only requiring qualitative information about social-ecological interactions and events and providing more general predictions due to their validity for wide ranges of parameter values. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modeling framework based on “if-then” rules generating non-deterministic dynamics. Based on expert knowledge, observations, and literature, we use EDEN to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups have highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modeling.

scholarly journals East-African savanna dynamics: from a knowledge-based model to the possible futures of a social-ecological system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximilien Cosme ◽  
Christelle Hély ◽  
Franck Pommereau ◽  
Paolo Pasquariello ◽  
Christel Tiberi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Rangeland Management ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Bush Encroachment ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
East African ◽  
Pastoral Systems ◽  
African Savanna

Sub-Saharan savanna ecosystems are undergoing transitions such as bush encroachment, desertification or agricultural expansion. Such shifts and persistence of land cover are increasingly well understood, especially bush encroachment which is of major concern in pastoral systems. Although dominant factors can explain such transformations, they often result from intertwined causes in which human activities play a significant role. Therefore, in this latter case, these issues may require integrated solutions, involving many interacting components. Ecosystem modelling has proved appropriate to support decision-makers in such complex situations. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters and the precise functional form of interactions is often unknown. Alternatively, in rangeland management, States-and-Transitions Models (STMs) have been developed to organize knowledge about system transitions and to help decision-makers. However, these conceptual diagrams often lack mathematical analyzing tools, which strongly constrains their complexity. In this paper, we introduce the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN) modelling approach for representing the qualitative dynamics of an East-African savanna as a set of discrete states and transitions generated from empirical rules. These rules are derived from local knowledge, field observations and scientific literature. In contrast with STMs, EDEN generates automatically every possible states and transitions, thus enabling the prediction of novel ecosystem structures. Our results show that the savanna is potentially resilient to the disturbances considered. Moreover, the model highlights all transitions between vegetation types and socio-economic profiles under various climatic scenarios. The model also suggests that wildlife diversity may increase socio-economic resistance to seasonal drought. Tree-grass coexistence and agropastoralism have the widest ranges of conditions of existence of all vegetation types and socio-economic profiles, respectively. As this is a preliminary use of EDEN for applied purpose, analysis tools should be improved to enable finer investigation of desirable trajectories. By translating local knowledge into ecosystem dynamics, the EDEN approach seems promising to build a new bridge between managers and modellers.

scholarly journals Assessing asset monitoring levels for maintenance operations

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 632-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah A Alabdulkarim ◽  
Peter Ball ◽  
Ashutosh Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Product Service ◽  
Asset Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Asset management has recently gained significance due to emerging business models such as Product Service Systems where the sale of asset use, rather than the sale of the asset itself, is applied. This leaves the responsibility of the maintenance tasks to fall on the shoulders of the manufacturer/supplier to provide high asset availability. The use of asset monitoring assists in providing high availability but the level of monitoring and maintenance needs to be assessed for cost effectiveness. There is a lack of available tools and understanding of their value in assessing monitoring levels. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This research aims to develop a dynamic modelling approach using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) to assess such maintenance systems in order to provide a better understanding of the behaviour of complex maintenance operations. Interviews were conducted and literature was analysed to gather modelling requirements. Generic models were created, followed by simulation models, to examine how maintenance operation systems behave regarding different levels of asset monitoring. Findings – This research indicates that DES discerns varying levels of complexity of maintenance operations but that more sophisticated asset monitoring levels will not necessarily result in a higher asset performance. The paper shows that it is possible to assess the impact of monitoring levels as well as make other changes to system operation that may be more or less effective. Practical implications – The proposed tool supports the maintenance operations decision makers to select the appropriate asset monitoring level that suits their operational needs. Originality/value – A novel DES approach was developed to assess asset monitoring levels for maintenance operations. In applying this quantitative approach, it was demonstrated that higher asset monitoring levels do not necessarily result in higher asset availability. The work provides a means of evaluating the constraints in the system that an asset is part of rather than focusing on the asset in isolation.

Diverse Management Strategies Produce Similar Ecological Outcomes on Ranches in Western Great Plains: Social-Ecological Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 626-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailey Wilmer ◽  
David J. Augustine ◽  
Justin D. Derner ◽  
María E. Fernández-Giménez ◽  
David D. Briske ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Ecological Assessment ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Western Great Plains

Density dependence and the spread of invasive big-headed ants (Pheidole megacephala) in an East African savanna

Oecologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro G. Pietrek ◽  
Jacob R. Goheen ◽  
Corinna Riginos ◽  
Nelly J. Maiyo ◽  
Todd M. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Density Dependence ◽  
East African ◽  
African Savanna ◽  
Pheidole Megacephala

scholarly journals Identifying social–ecological gaps to promote biocrust conservation actions

Web Ecology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-132
Author(s):  
María D. López-Rodríguez ◽  
Sonia Chamizo ◽  
Yolanda Cantón ◽  
Emilio Rodriguez-Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Ecological Functions ◽  
Conservation Policies ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
The Social ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
New Research

Abstract. Globally, most bare-looking areas in dryland regions are covered by biocrusts which play a crucial role in modifying several soil surface properties and driving key ecosystem processes. These keystone communities face important threats (e.g. climate change) that place their conservation at risk and in turn the sustainability of the ecosystems they inhabit. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop ecosystem management strategies to ensure their protection. However, to provide a solid path towards biocrust conservation, the understanding by stakeholders and governance structures of the ecological functions of these communities, their role as benefit providers, and the pressures threatening their important effects are indispensable. Whereas the ecological scope of biocrust has been widely studied in the last decades, the social dimension of their role remained unexplored. By reviewing literature in biocrusts from a social–ecological approach, here we identified knowledge gaps and new research areas that need to be addressed in order to produce scientific knowledge that better guides dryland conservation policies and actions. This research agenda is a prerequisite to advance biocrust conservation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document