Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modeling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modeling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem responses to perturbations, while only requiring qualitative information about social-ecological interactions and events and providing more general predictions due to their validity for wide ranges of parameter values. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modeling framework based on “if-then” rules generating non-deterministic dynamics. Based on expert knowledge, observations, and literature, we use EDEN to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups have highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modeling.

Rational and Sustainable Water Resource Management in the Ptolemais Lignite Basin Using Remotely Sensed Data

Future investment feasibility studies concerning post-mining repurposing utilities and economic transitions should focus on regional water resource management and the hydraulic protection of any utilities. Satellite images in different bands and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Ptolemais basin were processed, leading to a more accurate estimation of the runoff ratio and percolation ratio. Furthermore, the saturated and unsaturated areas were delineated, leading to the recognition of potential artificial ground water recharge zones and zones where appropriate hydraulic protection measures are necessary.

Qualitative Modelling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and the Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

The Pastoralism in the Silesian Beskids (South Poland): In the Past and Today

The Silesian Beskids (Poland), the westernmost part of the Carpathian Mountains is an area with long pastoral tradition. For centuries sheep grazed in clearings located among forested ridges have been an integral part of the mountain landscape and pastoral customs have become essential elements of regional cultural heritage. In the chapter, the history and the current state of pastoralism in the Silesian Beskids are presented. The specific pastoral system developed in the region, based on annual migration of flocks between summer highland and winter lowland pastures is described. Local breeds and specific regional sheep products are depicted. Furthermore, the importance of pastoralism for the environment, landscape and plant biodiversity is analysed and efforts to recover sheep grazing in the mountains after a period of a deep recession caused by social and economic transitions connected with the collapse of the communist system are presented. The approach to restoration of pastoralism is illustrated using a case study of a pastoral centre which combines traditional sheep grazing with cheese production, education and several activities to promote pastoral tradition.

The plague of privatization: A futures analysis of the zombification of education

The article re-imagines the current developments of Swedish education into a possible future. Historically, education was organized and funded by the state; however, reforms towards privatization in the 1990s implemented school choice, private schools and a tax-financed voucher system with the option of turning profits on education. A new judicial decision enforced the withholding of data on private ownership and economic spending in education from the public, as transparency was deemed to damage the competitiveness of private schools. Hence, generating profits and business advantage are prioritized over public interests as the organization and provision of education is progressively shaped by privatization. These changes are what prompted us to consider ‘what if all education was privatized’? The first part of the article reviews important developments in public education towards privatization and introduces our theoretical framework. The second part draws on aspects of speculative fiction in a dystopian scenario of an imagined educational apocalypse. The scenario starts in contemporary times and ends in 2121 where the education system is dominated by a financial conglomerate called Nescience Ltd. In this technologically advanced society, artificial intelligence systems have replaced educational institutions and teachers. Expensive tuition and fees have made people indebted to Nescience while learning is transformed into the manufacturing of alienated labourers. To understand these economic transitions and the position of Nescience as a knowledge provider in the future, we use the concept of ‘zombification’ to theorize the infection of privatization in the educational sector.

Local overfishing patterns have regional effects on health of coral, and economic transitions can promote its recovery

Overfishing has the potential to severely disrupt coral reef ecosystems worldwide, while harvesting at more sustainable levels instead can boost fish yield without damaging reefs. The dispersal abilities of reef species mean that coral reefs form highly connected environments, and the viability of reef fish populations depends on spatially explicit processes such as the spillover effect and unauthorized harvesting inside marine protected areas. However, much of the literature on coral conservation and management has only examined overfishing on a local scale, without considering how different spatial patterns of fishing levels can affect reef health both locally and regionally. Here, we simulate a coupled human-environment model to determine how coral and herbivorous reef fish respond to overfishing across multiple spatial scales. We find that coral and reef fish react in opposite ways to habitat fragmentation driven by overfishing, and that a potential spillover effect from marine protected areas into overfished patches helps coral populations far less than it does reef fish. We also show that ongoing economic transitions from fishing to tourism have the potential to revive fish and coral populations over a relatively short timescale, and that large-scale reef recovery is possible even if these transitions only occur locally. Our results show the importance of considering spatial dynamics in marine conservation efforts, and demonstrate the ability of economic factors to cause regime shifts in human-environment systems.

Economic Transitions in South Africa’s Secondary Cities: Governing Mine Closures

Many South African secondary cities depend on a single economic sector, often mining or manufacturing. This makes them vulnerable to economic change and national decision-making. We describe change in three secondary cities—Emalahleni, Matjhabeng and Newcastle—all at different phases of economic transition due to imminent mine closure. We investigate the way local governance and planning are dealing with the change. We draw on concepts from institutional economics and evolutionary governance theory, material from strategic planning documents, and approximately 50 key informant interviews. We show how difficult it is to steer economic planning during economic transitions, and we demonstrate how both economic change and governance are path-dependent. Path dependency in South Africa’s mining towns has several causes: the colonial influence, which emphasised extraction and neglected beneficiation; the dominance of a single sector; the long-term problems created by mining; and the lack of the skills needed to bring about economic change. The local governments’ continuing reliance on the New Public Management paradigm, which focuses on steering as opposed to building networks, compounds the problem, along with poor governance, inadequate local capacity and inappropriate intergovernmental relations. Of the three towns, only Newcastle has shown signs of taking a new path.

“I will Enter the Suitcase and I will not Make a Sound until we Pass the Border…”

The article elaborates the crossborder experiences and strategies of family divide and unaccompanied childhoods in the context of crossborder migrations and smuggling across Bulgaria-Turkey border between the years of 1990-2001. The authors dig into the longrun impact of smuggling and imposed illegality on the migrant children and the means, manners, strategies and dangers hidden within crossborder cyclical mobility and administrative construction of illegality under the political and economic transitions and turbulence across sending and receiving countries. Left to the forgetfulness of the history unaccompanied child migration experiences between Bulgaria and Turkey contain significant lessons in regard to the role of restrictive and security based visa and migration policies. Our study aims at further investigation and understanding of these experiences via fieldwork containing semistructured interviews with 13 smuggled children and their parents. The article begins with introduction to the political and economic conditions that led to irregularization of child migrations across Bulgaria-Turkey border between 1990-2001. It follows presentation of data collected during the Istanbul University BAP Research Center supported fieldwork and follows elaboration on the memories, experiences and prevailing perceptions of these crossborder experiences by the trafficked children and their parents.The article elaborates the crossborder experiences and strategies of family divide and unaccompanied childhoods in the context of crossborder migrations and smuggling across Bulgaria-Turkey border between the years of 1990-2001. The authors dig into the longrun impact of smuggling and imposed illegality on the migrant children and the means, manners, strategies and dangers hidden within crossborder cyclical mobility and administrative construction of illegality under the political and economic transitions and turbulence across sending and receiving countries. Left to the forgetfulness of the history unaccompanied child migration experiences between Bulgaria and Turkey contain significant lessons in regard to the role of restrictive and security based visa and migration policies. Our study aims at further investigation and under-standing of these experiences via fieldwork containing semi-structured interviews with 13 smuggled children and their parents. The article begins with introduction to the political and economic conditions that led to irregularization of child migrations across Bulgaria-Turkey border between 1990-2001. It follows presentation of data collected during the Istanbul University BAP Research Center supported fieldwork and follows elaboration on the memories, experiences and prevailing perceptions of these crossborder experiences by the trafficked children and their parents.

How Do We Manage a Just Transition? A Comparative Review of National and Regional Just Transition Initiatives

The concept of a ‘just transition’ encompasses political and policy imperatives to minimize the harmful impacts of industrial and economic transitions on workers, communities, and society more generally, and to maximize their potential benefits. This imperative has gained heightened importance as governments commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A wide range of policies, strategies and initiatives have been adopted by national and regional governments to facilitate and help manage a just transition. It is a concept that is increasingly being put into practice. This scoping study identifies and compares strategies, policies, and practices that are presently being implemented in order to manage a just transition across 25 countries and 74 regions alongside European Union-level policies. This work develops a typology of policy instruments to manage just transitions and identifies implementation gaps and leading practices.