Interaction Between Population Aging and Technological Innovation: A Chinese Case Study

Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Xindong Zhao ◽  
◽  

Based on the method of unidirectional causality measure, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic effects and causality between China’s population aging and technological innovation. According to the empirical results, first, the aging of the population will eventually have a continuous long-term impact, although it has little effect on the technology innovation in the short term. Second, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the child-raising ratio has a remarkable unidirectional causal effect on the technological innovation in the short term. Third, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio has a stronger impact on the scientific and technological innovation ability, which is a long-term effect. The finding indicates that the elderly population and the children’s population have a continuous impact on China’s scientific and technological innovation, that is, the increase in social support burden affects the technological innovation for a long time.

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Devedzic ◽  
Jelena Stojilkovic

While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it?s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. ?Prospective threshold? is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world?s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953-2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependency ratio is higher than conventional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for older and younger generations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Zheng

Abstract This study examines the potential impact of aging on the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in China. Using the provincial data for 2000–2018, we find that a 1-percent increase in each proportion of the elderly population and old-age dependency ratio increases the PHI demand by 4.8 and 5.2%, respectively. A one-percent increase in the child dependency ratio decreases the PHI demand by 1.5%. We employ an instrumental variable approach; the findings support that the proportion of the elderly individuals in the total population, old-age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, and urban green area significantly affect the PHI demand. The rolling estimate indicates that aging has a significant positive effect on the PHI demand over a rolling window of a fixed sample size. Additionally, by controlling for province and year fixed effects, we find that aging is positively associated with the PHI demand in China.


2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2098416
Author(s):  
Hee Jin Yang

This paper explores the spatial differences in population aging within the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea). Korea is among the most rapidly growing countries in the world in terms of its increasing elderly population. The speed of population aging and demographic decline has been a central issue in the field of urban and regional planning because it is linked to spatial inequalities in socio-economic development. Considering the present importance of understanding population aging, this paper aims to empirically visualize spatial disparities using the old-age dependency ratio, which is measured by the ratio of the elderly population to the working-age population (age 15–64 years old) of one hundred people. For the empirical period examined between 2000 and 2018, I mapped the changing temporal and spatial patterns of the old-age dependency ratio within SMA using spatial analytic tools and cartograms. The visualization reveals that the old-age dependency ratio is relatively high in sparsely-populated rural areas, which underscores the need for further discussion on how to sustainably provide local public services and manage the pressing issue of population extinction in those areas.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-71
Author(s):  
Tomasz Michalski ◽  
Joanna Stępień

Abstract The aim of the study was to diagnose the current and projected pace of ageing in the societies of European post-communist countries from the point of view of its being an increasing economic burden on the economically active population. The analysis covered the years 1990–2050. Ageing is already visible and, according to the forecast, the process will accelerate even more. The old-age dependency ratio (OADR) is expected to exceed 50 in half of the countries in the study by 2050. This will result in major threats to the further development of these countries and will lead to poverty and social exclusion of the elderly. In order to slow down the ageing process, the authorities of these countries should take a number of actions, the most important of which are the implementation of an effective and efficient pro-natal policy (so that the total fertility rate would increase above 2.1), and a well-thought-out migration policy.


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