The Life Cycle Hypothesis and Uncertainty: Analyzing Aging Savings Relationship in Tunisia

This research empirically checks the effect of uncertainty on aging-saving link that is indirectly captured by an auxiliary variable: the unemployment. It looks at the nexus population aging and savings by bringing out the unemployment context importance in determination saving behavior notably in a setting of unavailability of unemployment allowance. To better estimate population aging, it considers the old-age dependency ratio besides the total dependency one, which is the usually indicator used. Applying the Structural VAR model, the variance decomposition technique and the response impulse function, on Tunisia during 1970–2019, it puts on show that elderly do not dissave in a context of enduring unemployment and unavailability of unemployment allowance. Unemployment is an important factor able to shaping the saving behavior and to distort the life cycle hypothesis’s prediction. Consequently, the life cycle hypothesis cannot be validated under uncertainty. Hence, aging does not to alter savings systematically. The nature of aging-saving relationship is upon to social and economic context.

How does Human Capital Heterogeneity Affect Chinese Enterprises' Direct Investment in Africa?

Is human capital heterogeneity a decisive factor for Chinese enterprises to invest in Africa? Based on the Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI） data of Chinese enterprises in 37 African countries from 2007 to 2017, this paper using the FGLS model, is the empirical analysis of the mechanism and effect of the human capital heterogeneity of host countries on OFDI location selection. The human capital heterogeneity can be divided into four dimensions: scale, quality, cost and structure, which can be measured by health level, education level, wage level, child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio. The results show that: (1) the host country's human capital scale and child dependency ratio structure have a significant positive impact on decision-making for OFDI; (2) the cost of human capital and the structure of old-age dependency ratio are negatively correlated with the inflow of OFDI; (3) different from the existing conclusions, the quality of human capital will inhibit the inflow of OFDI in the sample period; (4) the extended test shows that the quality of human capital has a significant positive impact on OFDI decision-making. The results of robustness test are reliable. Finally, according to the conclusion of this paper, policy recommendations are put forward.

Impact of COVID-19 on Ageing and Retirement System: Key Policy Considerations

The authors attempt to conduct interdisciplinary research in epidemiology demography and pension economics. A literature was selected upon its relevance to the following key words: COVID-19, ageing and retirement system. The following methods are used: Historical content analysis, information, and analytical, comparative analysis. The analysis part is mainly based on secondary data of Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and world recognized institutions’ reports such as World Health Organization, United Nations and World Bank. In the demographic analysis the traditional and alternative indices of population ageing such as Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) and Prospective Old Age Dependency Ratio (POADR) were widely used. By August 5, 2020, Kazakhstan has 94,882 registered cases of CVI, 67031 people recovered and 1058 deaths. Confusion in the demographic statistics of COVID-19 cases showed all the shortcomings. Even though the OADR and POADR ratios are rising in accordance with UN forecast, the global pandemic will adjust the population ageing, since the mortality of the elderly population from this disease is higher than in other age groups. The Kazakhstani retirement system has been suffered by the COVID-19 as well. Human losses, income poverty and increase in pension costs put a burden on state budget. The research presents recommendations on supporting measures in several directions that need to be taken by policy makers during post COVID-19 period in retirement system.

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

The Influence of Aging Population on Consumption Quantity in China

In this study, a fixed effect model is established to empirically examine the effect of population aging on consumption in China. Research analyzing the influence mechanism of population aging on consumption quantity has yet to determine the effect of population aging on consumption quantity under various conditions. Panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China were analyzed, with the old-age dependency ratio as the main control variable, and considering income, economic development level (GDP), and consumer price index. The samples are divided into nationwide, as well as eastern, central, and western regions, for modeling and discussion. The results show that population aging negatively affects consumption quantity. In response to the negative impact, we propose relevant policies and suggestions for enhancing consumption quantity.

ELDERLY DEPENDENCY IN INDIA: FINDINGS FROM CENSUS DATA

The changing demographic profile resulting in ageing of population has thrown many new challenges in the social, economic and political domains in India due to the huge number of aged population. The economic support to the older persons is very much dependent upon the earning ability of the adults. The study mainly focuses on the quantum of dependency burden and assesses the dependency burden in relation to the prevailing economic situation. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) in India estimated as ratio of population 60+ to that of 15-59 years is found to be 0.14 and the old age economic dependency ratio (OAEDR) is much higher at 0.23. Both OADR and OAEDR is highest in Kerala followed by Punjab and Haryana among the major states in India. Elderly dependency is high in most of the states and the economy is not prepared to bear the burden. The Economic Dependency ratio is almost three times the total dependency when we add the number of non workers 15-59 years in the dependent group and eliminate non workers 15-59 years from the economically active group in India. The unemployment rates are found to be quite high in states where the elderly dependency burden is higher. Increased longevity demands higher savings rates to cater to the needs of the old-old group. So the benefit of having a large working age population remains to be tapped through creating more employment opportunities.

Population Aging and the Demand for Private Health Insurance in China

This study examines the potential impact of aging on the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in China. Using the provincial data for 2000–2018, we find that a 1-percent increase in each proportion of the elderly population and old-age dependency ratio increases the PHI demand by 4.8 and 5.2%, respectively. A one-percent increase in the child dependency ratio decreases the PHI demand by 1.5%. We employ an instrumental variable approach; the findings support that the proportion of the elderly individuals in the total population, old-age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, and urban green area significantly affect the PHI demand. The rolling estimate indicates that aging has a significant positive effect on the PHI demand over a rolling window of a fixed sample size. Additionally, by controlling for province and year fixed effects, we find that aging is positively associated with the PHI demand in China.

The Challenges of Population Aging in the People's Republic of China

The population in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is aging rapidly, as the proportion of people aged 60 and above is expected to increase to 35% by 2050. While aging poses economic challenges, if managed well, it can generate new employment opportunities with the emergence of new professions related to elderly care. However, capturing these benefits require labor market reforms, higher public spending to finance long-term care and pensions, and policy support. This note presents policy recommendations to address identified socioeconomic implications of rapid population aging in the PRC, focusing on labor market changes, effective long-term elderly care, and measures to address the increasing old-age dependency ratio.