The Spillover Effect of Labor Agglomeration on Regional Economic Growth

Under the background that China's labor force is decreasing and they can move freely, this paper selects the Spatial Doberman model with time-individual fixed effects to analyze and study the spatial spillover effect and its impact mechanism of the labor agglomeration of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2003 to 2018 on regional economic growth. It was found that in China, the increase in the concentration of labor in a region and surrounding areas can promote economic growth in the region through the increase in marketization and the decline in the dependency ratio. However, the current regional economic growth in China is manifested by the promotion of labor agglomeration in the region and the suppression of labor agglomeration in the surrounding areas.

How does Human Capital Heterogeneity Affect Chinese Enterprises' Direct Investment in Africa?

Is human capital heterogeneity a decisive factor for Chinese enterprises to invest in Africa? Based on the Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI） data of Chinese enterprises in 37 African countries from 2007 to 2017, this paper using the FGLS model, is the empirical analysis of the mechanism and effect of the human capital heterogeneity of host countries on OFDI location selection. The human capital heterogeneity can be divided into four dimensions: scale, quality, cost and structure, which can be measured by health level, education level, wage level, child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio. The results show that: (1) the host country's human capital scale and child dependency ratio structure have a significant positive impact on decision-making for OFDI; (2) the cost of human capital and the structure of old-age dependency ratio are negatively correlated with the inflow of OFDI; (3) different from the existing conclusions, the quality of human capital will inhibit the inflow of OFDI in the sample period; (4) the extended test shows that the quality of human capital has a significant positive impact on OFDI decision-making. The results of robustness test are reliable. Finally, according to the conclusion of this paper, policy recommendations are put forward.

Impact of COVID-19 on Ageing and Retirement System: Key Policy Considerations

The authors attempt to conduct interdisciplinary research in epidemiology demography and pension economics. A literature was selected upon its relevance to the following key words: COVID-19, ageing and retirement system. The following methods are used: Historical content analysis, information, and analytical, comparative analysis. The analysis part is mainly based on secondary data of Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and world recognized institutions’ reports such as World Health Organization, United Nations and World Bank. In the demographic analysis the traditional and alternative indices of population ageing such as Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) and Prospective Old Age Dependency Ratio (POADR) were widely used. By August 5, 2020, Kazakhstan has 94,882 registered cases of CVI, 67031 people recovered and 1058 deaths. Confusion in the demographic statistics of COVID-19 cases showed all the shortcomings. Even though the OADR and POADR ratios are rising in accordance with UN forecast, the global pandemic will adjust the population ageing, since the mortality of the elderly population from this disease is higher than in other age groups. The Kazakhstani retirement system has been suffered by the COVID-19 as well. Human losses, income poverty and increase in pension costs put a burden on state budget. The research presents recommendations on supporting measures in several directions that need to be taken by policy makers during post COVID-19 period in retirement system.

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

Food insecurity status and determinants among Urban Productive Safety Net Program beneficiary households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background Measuring household food insecurity in specific geographic areas provides vital information that enables appropriate and effective intervention measures to be taken. To that end, this study aimed to assess the prevalence of food insecurity and associated factors among Urban Productive Safety Net Program (UPSNP) beneficiary households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital city. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 624 UPSNP beneficiary households in nine districts of Addis Ababa from June to July 2019. A multi-stage sampling method was used; study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique after establishing the proportionally allocated sample size for 9 districts. Data were collected by trained personnel using a pretested, structured questionnaire. The outcome variable was food insecurity as measured by Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), a tool developed by the Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance Scale (FANTA) and validated for developing countries, including Ethiopia. A binary (crude odds ratio [COR]) and multivariable (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) logistic regression analysis were employed at 95% CI (confidence interval). From the bivariate analysis, factors having a p-value<0.25 were included in the multivariable analysis. From the multivariable analysis, any variable at p-value < 0.05 at 95% CI was declared significantly associated with household food insecurity. Model fitness was also checked using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with p-value>0.05. Results The prevalence of household food insecurity was 77.1% [95%CI:73.8–80.7] during the month prior to the survey. Illiteracy of household head [AOR: 2.56; 95%CI:1.08–6.07], family size of 4 or more [AOR: 1.87, 95%CI:1.08–3.23], high dependency ratio [AOR: 3.95; 95%CI:1.31–11.90], household lack of access to credit [AOR:2.85; 95%CI:1.25–6.49], low household income [AOR: 4.72; 95%CI:2.32–9.60] and medium household income [AOR: 9.78; 95%CI:4.29–22.35] were significantly associated with household food insecurity. Conclusion We found that three in four of Addis Ababa’s UPSNP beneficiary households were food-insecure. Implementation of measures to improve household income, minimize the dependency ratio of households, and arrange access to credit services are paramount ways to tackle food insecurity problems in Addis Ababa.

Assessing Livelihood Resilience of Artisanal Fisherfolk to the Decline in Small-Scale Fisheries in Ghana

The concept of livelihood resilience provides a unique framework for understanding challenges in complex social–ecological systems (SESs) and fostering sustainability. Despite the crises many small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are facing, few studies have operationalized the concept in the context of declining SSFs in developing countries. This study aims to assess the resilience of artisanal fisherfolk livelihoods and its predicting factors in three fishing communities—Elmina, Jamestown, and Axim—in Ghana. A total of 1180 semi-structured interviews were conducted with fishers, fish processors, and mongers. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze the data. The results show that the livelihood resilience of fisherfolk increases with an increased level of education and varies by gender. Male fisherfolk with secondary/post-secondary level education had the highest proportion (50%) of more resilient livelihoods. Only 36% of female fisherfolk with secondary/post-secondary level education had more resilient livelihoods. While 40% of male fisherfolk with no formal education had less resilient livelihoods, the livelihoods of half (51%) of females fisherfolk with no formal education were less resilient. The sociodemographic characteristics including wealth status, dependency ratio, marital status, religion, and ethnicity; contextual factors (community); and other relevant factors (experience in fishing, membership of fisherfolk association/group, and beneficiary of livelihood interventions) were found as predictors of the resilience of fisherfolks livelihoods. The findings suggest that interventions towards improving the livelihood resilience of fisherfolk need to consider individual- and household-level characteristics, as well as contextual factors such as marital status, religious affiliation, ethnicity, wealth status, dependency ratio, community, etc.

ELDERLY DEPENDENCY IN INDIA: FINDINGS FROM CENSUS DATA

The changing demographic profile resulting in ageing of population has thrown many new challenges in the social, economic and political domains in India due to the huge number of aged population. The economic support to the older persons is very much dependent upon the earning ability of the adults. The study mainly focuses on the quantum of dependency burden and assesses the dependency burden in relation to the prevailing economic situation. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) in India estimated as ratio of population 60+ to that of 15-59 years is found to be 0.14 and the old age economic dependency ratio (OAEDR) is much higher at 0.23. Both OADR and OAEDR is highest in Kerala followed by Punjab and Haryana among the major states in India. Elderly dependency is high in most of the states and the economy is not prepared to bear the burden. The Economic Dependency ratio is almost three times the total dependency when we add the number of non workers 15-59 years in the dependent group and eliminate non workers 15-59 years from the economically active group in India. The unemployment rates are found to be quite high in states where the elderly dependency burden is higher. Increased longevity demands higher savings rates to cater to the needs of the old-old group. So the benefit of having a large working age population remains to be tapped through creating more employment opportunities.

Population Aging and the Demand for Private Health Insurance in China

This study examines the potential impact of aging on the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in China. Using the provincial data for 2000–2018, we find that a 1-percent increase in each proportion of the elderly population and old-age dependency ratio increases the PHI demand by 4.8 and 5.2%, respectively. A one-percent increase in the child dependency ratio decreases the PHI demand by 1.5%. We employ an instrumental variable approach; the findings support that the proportion of the elderly individuals in the total population, old-age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, and urban green area significantly affect the PHI demand. The rolling estimate indicates that aging has a significant positive effect on the PHI demand over a rolling window of a fixed sample size. Additionally, by controlling for province and year fixed effects, we find that aging is positively associated with the PHI demand in China.