Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan: Reconsiderations After the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 848-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽  
◽  
Nobuyuki Morikawa ◽  
Toshihiko Okumura ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Under the guidance of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan, we have been carrying out seismic hazard assessment for Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake and have made the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan to estimate strong motion caused by earthquakes that could occur in Japan in the future, and show estimated results on these maps. The Hazard Maps consist of two kinds of maps. One kind is a probabilistic seismic hazard map that shows the relation between seismic intensity value and its probability of exceedance within a certain period. The other kind is a scenario earthquake shaking map. In order to promote the use of the National Seismic Hazard Maps, we have developed an open Web system to provide information interactively, and have named this system the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS). The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) was the largest such event in the recorded history of Japan. This megathrust earthquake was not considered in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. Based on lessons learned from this earthquake disaster and on experience we have had in the seismic hazardmapping project of Japan, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for seismic hazard assessment and make proposals to improve seismic hazard assessment for Japan.

Comparing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps with ShakeMap Footprints for Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 847-858
Author(s):  
Adrien Pothon ◽  
Philippe Gueguen ◽  
Sylvain Buisine ◽  
Pierre-Yves Bard
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract A number of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps have been released for Indonesia over the past few decades. This study proposes a method for testing PSHA maps using U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap catalog considered as historical seismicity for Indonesia. It consists in counting the number of sites on rock soil for which the independent maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ShakeMap footprints between May 1968 and May 2018 exceeds the thresholds from the PSHA map studied and in comparing this number with the probability of exceedance given in the PSHA map. Although ShakeMap footprints are not as accurate and complete as continuous recorded ground motion, the spatially distributed ShakeMap covers 7,642,261 grid points, with a resolution of 1  km2, compensating the lack of instrumental data over this period. This data set is large enough for the statistical analysis of independent PGA values on rock sites only. To obtain the subdata set, we develop a new selection process and a new comparison method, considering the uncertainty of ShakeMap estimates. The method is applied to three PSHA maps (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program [GSHAP], Global Assessment Report [GAR], and Standar Nasional Indonesia [SNI2017]) for a selection of sites first located in Indonesia and next only in the western part of the country. The results show that SNI2017 provides the best fit with seismicity over the past 50 yr for both sets of rock sites (whole country and western part only). At the opposite, the GAR and GSHAP seismic hazard maps only fit the seismicity observed for the set of rock sites in western Indonesia. This result indicates that this method can only conclude on the spatial scale of the analysis and cannot be extrapolated to any other spatial resolution.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment in Eastern and Southern Africa

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Midzi ◽  
D. J. Hlatywayo ◽  
L. S. Chapola ◽  
F. Kebede ◽  
K. Atakan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Rift System ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa

Seismic hazard assessment for the Eastern and Southern Africa region was done using the probabilistic approach. Seismic hazard maps for 10% exceedance in 50 years, 10% exceedance in 100 years, as well as for 50 and 100 years return periods were prepared using the FRISK88M software. The area involved covers a wide region bounded by latitudes 40°S-25°N and longitudes 10°E and 55°E. Input parameters for the computations were obtained using the recent earthquake catalogue compiled by Turyomurugyendo. The catalogue which covers the time period 627-1994, contains earthquakes within the area bounded by 40°S-25°N and 10°E-55°E, with homogeneous magnitudes (M S ). Since a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence is assumed, dependent events were cleaned from the catalogue. Attenuation relations for the Eastern and Southern Africa region based on the strong motion data are virtually non-existent. However, attempts have been made recently by Jonathan and Twesigomwe to establish an average attenuation relation for the region. These relations were used in the computations. Possible uncertainties in the attenuation relations were accounted for using the logic-tree formalism. The results are presented in seismic hazard maps in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the mean and the 85th percentile. The distribution of PGA values indicate relatively high hazard along the East African rift system. In the northern segments of the rift system, they exceed 250 gals for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years.

Seismic hazard and risks for social and infrastructure exposures adjacent to the Baikal–Amur Mainline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Kossobokov ◽  
Anastasia Nekrasova
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Historical Evidence ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

<p>Seismic hazard assessment requires an adequate understanding the earthquake distribution in magnitude, space, and time ranges. Laking data for a period of several thousand years makes probabilistic approach to estimating the recurrence time of hazardous ground shaking unreliable and misleading. In spite of theoretical flaws and actual failures on practice, the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps keep being actively used both at global and national scales. In recent decades, alternative methodologies have been developed to improve the reliability and accuracy of reproducible seismic hazard maps that pass intensive testing by historical evidence and realistic modelling of scenario earthquakes. In particular, the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) confirms providing reliable and effective input for mitigating object-oriented earthquake risks. The unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE) is a basic part of NDSHA that generalizes application of the Gutenberg-Richter law (G-RL). The USLE states that the logarithm of expected annual number of earthquakes of magnitude M in an area of linear size L within the magnitude range [M– , M+] follows the relationship log N(M, L) = A + B×(5 − M) + C×log L, where A, B, and C are constants.  Naturally, A and B are analogous to the classical a- and b-values, while C compliments to G-RL with the estimate of local fractal dimension of earthquake epicentres allowing for realistic rescaling seismic hazard to the size of exposure at risk. USLE implies that the maximum magnitude MX expected with p% chance in T years can be obtained from N(MX, L) = p%, then used for estimating and mapping ground shaking parameters by means of the NDSHA algorithms. So far, the reliable USLE based seismic hazard maps tested by historical evidence have been plotted for a number of regions worldwide. We present the USLE based maps of MX computed at earthquake-prone cells of a regular grid, as well as the adapted NDSHA estimates of seismic hazard and risks for social and infrastructure exposures in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 20-17-00180.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Hanoi city

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-338
Author(s):  
Pham The Truyen ◽  
Nguyen Hong Phuong
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
S Period

In this study, the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment proposed by Cornell and Esteva in 1968 was applied for Hanoi city, using an earthquake catalog updated until 2018 and a comprehensive seismotectonic model of the territory of Vietnam and adjacent sea areas. Statistical methods were applied for declustering the earthquake catalog, then the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter Law and the maximum magnitude for each seismic source zone. Two GMPEs proposed by Campbell & Bozorgnia (2008) and Akkar et al., (2014) were selected for use in hazard analysis. Results of PSHA for Hanoi city are presented in the form of probabilistic seismic hazard maps, depicting peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) as well as 5-hertz (0.2 sec period) and 1-hertz (1.0 sec. period) spectral accelerations (SA) with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition, with 10%, 5%, 2% and 0,5% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of 475; 975; 2,475 and 9,975 years, respectively. The results of PSHA show that, for the whole territory of Hanoi city, for all four return periods, the predicted PGA values correspond to the intensity of VII to IX degrees according to the MSK-64 scale. As for the SA maps, for all four return periods, the predicted SA values at 1.0 s period correspond to the intensity of VI to VII, while the predicted SA values at 0.2 s period correspond to the intensity of VIII to X according to the MSK-64 scale. This is the last updated version of the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city. The 2019 probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels and can be applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy.

scholarly journals Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment of Corsica-Sardinia block

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Brandmayr ◽  
Franco Vaccari ◽  
Giuliano Francesco Panza
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Deterministic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismogenic Nodes

AbstractThe Corsica-Sardinia lithospheric block is commonly considered as a region of very low seismicity and the scarce reported seismicity for the area has till now precluded the reliable assessment of its seismic hazard. The time-honored assumption has been recently questioned and the historical seismicity of Sardinia has been reevaluated. Even more, several seismogenic nodes capable of M5 + have been recognized in the Corsica-Sardinia block exploiting the morphostructural zonation technique, calibrated to earlier results obtained for the Iberian peninsula, which has structural lithospheric affinities with the Corsica-Sardinia block. All this allows now for the computation of reliable earthquake hazard maps at bedrock conditions exploiting the power of Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) evaluation. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures and generates realistic time series from which several earthquake ground motion parameters can be readily extracted. NDSHA exploits in an optimized way all the available knowledge about lithospheric mechanical parameters, seismic history, seismogenic zones and nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved computing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. The way to this approach has been open by studies focused on continental Italy and Sicily, where the agreement between hazard maps obtained using seismogenic zones, informed by earthquake catalog data, and the maps obtained using only seismogenic nodes are very good.

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