Ranking and Selection of Earthquake Ground-Motion Models Using the Stochastic Area Metric

We introduce the cumulative-distribution-based area metric (AM)—also known as stochastic AM—as a scoring metric for earthquake ground-motion models (GMMs). The AM quantitatively informs the user of the degree to which observed or test data fit with a given model, providing a rankable absolute measure of misfit. The AM considers underlying data distributions and model uncertainties without any assumption of form. We apply this metric, along with existing testing methods, to four GMMs in order to test their performance using earthquake ground-motion data from the Preston New Road (United Kingdom) induced seismicity sequences in 2018 and 2019. An advantage of the proposed approach is its applicability to sparse datasets. We, therefore, focus on the ranking of models for discrete ranges of magnitude and distance, some of which have few data points. The variable performance of models in different ranges of the data reveals the importance of considering alternative models. We extend the ranking of GMMs through analysis of intermodel variations of the candidate models over different ranges of magnitude and distance using the AM. We find the intermodel AM can be a useful tool for selection of models for the logic-tree framework in seismic-hazard analysis. Overall, the AM is shown to be efficient and robust in the process of selection and ranking of GMMs for various applications, particularly for sparse and small-sized datasets.

An Analytical Method for Elastic Seismic Response of Structures Considering the Effect of Ground Motion Duration

The response to earthquake ground motion is composed of three basic elements, namely, amplitude, frequency, and duration. The seismic response of a structure is controlled by the particular combination of these three elements. The seismic response spectra reflect the earthquake ground motion’s frequency-domain features and provide the maximum response amplitude of a single-degree-of-freedom system to a given earthquake ground motion but do not consider the duration factor. However, the analysis of post-earthquake damage shows that the seismic response duration has a strong impact on the damage to structures. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a simple and practical analytical method to account for the seismic response duration. The present study was conducted based on the response spectra theory. We introduce an analytical method of elastic seismic response, which considers its duration by adding the time-domain dimension of earthquakes. The time-domain spectral matrix is used to solve the time-dependent seismic response through the vibration mode decomposition method. The time-domain vibration mode decomposition reaction spectrum not only takes into account the maximum seismic reaction of each vibration mode but also considers the seismic reaction of different vibration modes occurring at the same time, at each moment. The dynamic time duration of the structure’s seismic reaction is quantified by the time-domain seismic reaction spectrum to obtain a more accurate analysis method for the seismic reaction of the structure.

Seismic and Structural Analyses of the Eastern Anatolian Region (Turkey) Using Different Probabilities of Exceedance

Seismic hazard analysis of the earthquake-prone Eastern Anatolian Region (Turkey) has become more important due to its growing strategic importance as a global energy corridor. Most of the cities in that region have experienced the loss of life and property due to significant earthquakes. Thus, in this study, we attempted to estimate the seismic hazard in that region. Seismic moment variations were obtained using different types of earthquake magnitudes such as Mw, Ms, and Mb. The earthquake parameters were also determined for all provincial centers using the earthquake ground motion levels with some probabilities of exceedance. The spectral acceleration coefficients were compared based on the current and previous seismic design codes of the country. Additionally, structural analyses were performed using different earthquake ground motion levels for the Bingöl province, which has the highest peak ground acceleration values for a sample reinforced concrete building. The highest seismic moment variations were found between the Van and Hakkari provinces. The findings also showed that the peak ground acceleration values varied between 0.2–0.7 g for earthquakes, with a repetition period of 475 years. A comparison of the probabilistic seismic hazard curves of the Bingöl province with the well-known attenuation relationships showed that the current seismic design code indicates a higher earthquake risk than most of the others.

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Skewed Reinforced Concrete Bridges

Skewed bridges are commonly used in highway interchanges where the straight (unskewed) bridges are not suitable. There have been several observations of heavy damage of bridges that have geometric irregularities, especially significant skewness. Such damage severely disrupts transportation systems, leading to substantial economic consequences. Skewed bridges are often inevitable due to the complexity and lack of orthogonality of transportation networks; hence better quantification of the effects of skewness on the bridge performance is a more viable approach than avoiding skewed bridges. This research focuses on the seismic vulnerability analysis of skewed reinforced concrete (RC) bridges. From the straight to highly skewed, various bridge models are created based on design example No. 4 prepared by the US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). A set of earthquake ground motion records is carefully selected to impose consistent seismic demands on bridges. The fragility relationships for all bridge configurations are derived from the non-linear dynamic response history analysis. A new structural reliability method is utilized to handle the computational challenge in deriving fragility curves, which incorporates the structural analysis and reliability analysis to calculate the failure probability efficiently and accurately with the first-order reliability method (FORM). An attempt is made to parameterize the problem based on the skew angle. It is shown that the skew angle has a direct effect on the seismic vulnerability of RC bridges. The results reported will be helpful for new designs of skew RC bridges.