The question of what probability actually is has
long been debated in philosophy and statistics.
Although the concept of probability is fundamental
to many applications in the health sciences, these
debates are generally not well known to health
professionals. This paper begins with an outline of
some of the different interpretations of probability.
Examples are provided of how each interpretation
manifests in clinical practice. The discipline of
genetic counselling (familial cancer) is used to
ground the discussion. In the second part of the
paper, some of the implications that different
interpretations of probability may have in practice
are examined. The main purpose of the paper is to
draw attention to the fact that there is much
contention as to the nature of the concept of
probability. In practice, this creates the potential
for ambiguity and confusion. This paper constitutes
a call for deeper engagement with the ways
in which probability and risk are understood in
health research and practice.
Effective Health Risk Communication About Pandemic Influenza for Vulnerable Populations
