Shoreline Change in Response to Sea-Level Rise on Florida's West Coast

2017 ◽  
Vol 336 ◽  
pp. 1243-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.R. Houston
Author(s):  
Yoshiaki Kuriyama ◽  
Masayuki Banno

Submerged breakwaters are considered to be preferable countermeasures against beach erosion where the availability of sediments for nourishment is limited and tourism is prevalent because submerged breakwaters do not interfere with the view of the horizon from the shore. However, sandy beaches protected by submerged breakwaters are assumed to be vulnerable to relative sea level rise (SLR) and land subsidence because the crests of submerged breakwaters are below sea level. Kuriyama and Banno (2016) numerically predicted the future shoreline change under SLR and land subsidence on the Niigata West coast in Japan, which is protected by submerged breakwaters. The prediction showed that the shoreline will retreat 60 m over the next 100 years. In this study, we investigated the effects of countermeasures against the erosion due to SLR and land subsidence.


Author(s):  
James Houston

Florida, United States, has shoreline change measurements starting in the 1800s with spacing of about every 300 m. In addition, due to extensive shoreline development and tourism, processes causing shoreline change have been studied extensively. The 1160-km east and 275-km southwest shorelines advanced seaward on average from the 1800s even before widespread beach nourishment and despite sea level rise. Shoreline advance despite sea level rise has been noted along other coasts such as the Netherlands central coast (Stive and de Vriend, 1995). In contrast, the 335-km Florida west coast retreated landward on average almost 30 m from 1867 to 2015.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 974
Author(s):  
Maurizio D’Anna ◽  
Deborah Idier ◽  
Bruno Castelle ◽  
Sean Vitousek ◽  
Goneri Le Cozannet

Long-term (>decades) coastal recession due to sea-level rise (SLR) has been estimated using the Bruun Rule for nearly six decades. Equilibrium-based shoreline models have been shown to skillfully predict short-term wave-driven shoreline change on time scales of hours to decades. Both the Bruun Rule and equilibrium shoreline models rely on the equilibrium beach theory, which states that the beach profile shape equilibrates with its local wave and sea-level conditions. Integrating these two models into a unified framework can improve our understanding and predictive skill of future shoreline behavior. However, given that both models account for wave action, but over different time scales, a critical re-examination of the SLR-driven recession process is needed. We present a novel physical interpretation of the beach response to sea-level rise, identifying two main contributing processes: passive flooding and increased wave-driven erosion efficiency. Using this new concept, we analyze the integration of SLR-driven recession into equilibrium shoreline models and, with an idealized test case, show that the physical mechanisms underpinning the Bruun Rule are explicitly described within our integrated model. Finally, we discuss the possible advantages of integrating SLR-driven recession models within equilibrium-based models with dynamic feedbacks and the broader implications for coupling with hybrid shoreline models.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Robins ◽  
Lisa Harrison ◽  
Mariam Elnahrawi ◽  
Matt Lewis ◽  
Tom Coulthard ◽  
...  

<p>Coastal flooding worldwide causes the vast majority of natural disasters; for the UK costing £2.2 billion/year. Fluvial and surge-tide extremes can occur synchronously resulting in combination flooding hazards in estuaries, intensifying the flood risk beyond fluvial-only or surge-only events. Worse, this flood risk has the potential to increase further in the future as the frequency and/or intensity of these drivers change, combined with projected sea-level rise. Yet, the sensitivity of contrasting estuaries to combination and compound flooding hazards at sub-daily scales – now and in the future – is unclear. Here, we investigate the dependence between fluvial and surge interactions at sub-daily scales for contrasting catchment and estuary types (Humber vs. Dyfi, UK), using 50+ years of data: 15-min fluvial flows and hourly sea levels. Additionally, we simulate intra-estuary (<50 m resolution) sensitivities to combination flooding hazards based on: (1) realistic extreme events (worst-on-record); (2) realistic events with shifted timings of the drivers to maximise flooding; and (3) modified drivers representing projected climate change.</p><p>For well-documented flooding events, we show significant correlation between skew surge and peak fluvial flow, for the Dyfi (small catchment and estuary with a fast fluvial response on the west coast of Britain), with a higher dependence during autumn/winter months. In contrast, we show no dependence for the Humber (large catchment and estuary with a slow fluvial response on the east coast of Britain). Cross-correlation results, however, did show correlation with a time lag (~10 hours). For the Dyfi, flood extent was sensitive to the relative timing of the fluvial and surge-tide drivers. In contrast, the relative timing of these drivers did not affect flooding in the Humber. However, extreme fluvial flows in the Humber actually reduced water levels in the outer estuary, compared with a surge-only event. Projected future changes in these drivers by 2100 are likely to increase combination flooding hazards: sea-level rise scenarios predicted substantial and widespread flooding in both estuaries. However, similar increases in storm surge resulted in a greater seawater influx, altering the character of the flooding. Projected changes in fluvial volumes were the weakest driver of estuarine flooding. On the west coast of Britain containing many small/steep catchments, combination flooding hazards from fluvial and surges extremes occurring together is likely. Moreover, high-resolution data and hydrodynamic modelling are necessary to resolve the impact and inform flood mitigation methodology.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 298-307
Author(s):  
A Jeong Kim ◽  
Myeong Hee Lee ◽  
Seung Won Suh

Typhoons occur intensively between July and October, and the sea level is the highest during this time. In particular, the mean sea level in summer in Korea is higher than the annual mean sea level about 14.5cm in the west coast, 9.0 to 14.5cm in the south coast, and about 9.0 cm in the east coast. When the rising the sea level and a large typhoon overlap in summer, it can cause surges and flooding in low-lying coastal areas. Therefore, accurate calculation of the surge height is essential when designing coastal structures and assessing stability in order to reduce coastal hazards on the lowlands. In this study, the typhoon surge heights considering the summer mean sea level rise (SH_m) was calculated, and the validity of the analysis of abnormal phenomena was reviewed by comparing it with the existing surge height considering the annual mean sea level (SH_a). As a result of the re-analyzed study of typhoon surge heights for BOLAVEN (SANBA), which influenced in August and September during the summer sea level rise periods, yielded the differences of surge heights (cm) between SH_a and SH_m 7.8~24.5 (23.6~34.5) for the directly affected zone of south-west (south-east) coasts, while for the indirect south-east (south-west) coasts showed -1.0~0.0 (8.3~12.2), respectively. Whilst the differences between SH_a and SH_m of typhoons CHABA (KONG-REY) occurred in October showed remarkably lessened values as 5.2~ 14.2 (19.8~21.6) for the directly affected south-east coasts and 3.2~6.3 (-3.2~3.7) for the indirectly influenced west coast, respectively. The results show the SH_a does not take into account the increased summer mean sea level, so it is evaluated that it is overestimated compared to the surge height that occurs during an actual typhoon. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to re-discuss the feasibility of the surge height standard design based on the existing annual mean sea level, along with the accurate establishment of the concept of surge height.


Author(s):  
Carlos Antunes

Data collected at the Cascais tide gauge, located on the west coast of Portugal Mainland, have been analyzed and sea level rise rates have been updated. Based on a bootstrapping linear regression model and on polynomial adjustments, time series are used to calculate different empirical projections for the 21st century sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent to an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Appling the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of composed vertical land velocity from tectonic and post-glacial isostatic adjustment, and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects rather than a trend. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland.


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