Effect of Summer Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Analysis

Typhoons occur intensively between July and October, and the sea level is the highest during this time. In particular, the mean sea level in summer in Korea is higher than the annual mean sea level about 14.5cm in the west coast, 9.0 to 14.5cm in the south coast, and about 9.0 cm in the east coast. When the rising the sea level and a large typhoon overlap in summer, it can cause surges and flooding in low-lying coastal areas. Therefore, accurate calculation of the surge height is essential when designing coastal structures and assessing stability in order to reduce coastal hazards on the lowlands. In this study, the typhoon surge heights considering the summer mean sea level rise (SH_m) was calculated, and the validity of the analysis of abnormal phenomena was reviewed by comparing it with the existing surge height considering the annual mean sea level (SH_a). As a result of the re-analyzed study of typhoon surge heights for BOLAVEN (SANBA), which influenced in August and September during the summer sea level rise periods, yielded the differences of surge heights (cm) between SH_a and SH_m 7.8~24.5 (23.6~34.5) for the directly affected zone of south-west (south-east) coasts, while for the indirect south-east (south-west) coasts showed -1.0~0.0 (8.3~12.2), respectively. Whilst the differences between SH_a and SH_m of typhoons CHABA (KONG-REY) occurred in October showed remarkably lessened values as 5.2~ 14.2 (19.8~21.6) for the directly affected south-east coasts and 3.2~6.3 (-3.2~3.7) for the indirectly influenced west coast, respectively. The results show the SH_a does not take into account the increased summer mean sea level, so it is evaluated that it is overestimated compared to the surge height that occurs during an actual typhoon. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to re-discuss the feasibility of the surge height standard design based on the existing annual mean sea level, along with the accurate establishment of the concept of surge height.

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Recent Sea Level Change in the Black Sea from Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Observations

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9030185 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 185 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nevin Avşar ◽

Şenol Kutoğlu

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Black Sea ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

The Black Sea ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Early 19Th Century ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

The Mean

Global mean sea level has been rising at an increasing rate, especially since the early 19th century in response to ocean thermal expansion and ice sheet melting. The possible consequences of sea level rise pose a significant threat to coastal cities, inhabitants, infrastructure, wetlands, ecosystems, and beaches. Sea level changes are not geographically uniform. This study focuses on present-day sea level changes in the Black Sea using satellite altimetry and tide gauge data. The multi-mission gridded satellite altimetry data from January 1993 to May 2017 indicated a mean rate of sea level rise of 2.5 ± 0.5 mm/year over the entire Black Sea. However, when considering the dominant cycles of the Black Sea level time series, an apparent (significant) variation was seen until 2014, and the rise in the mean sea level has been estimated at about 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year. Coastal sea level, which was assessed using the available data from 12 tide gauge stations, has generally risen (except for the Bourgas Station). For instance, from the western coast to the southern coast of the Black Sea, in Constantza, Sevastopol, Tuapse, Batumi, Trabzon, Amasra, Sile, and Igneada, the relative rise was 3.02, 1.56, 2.92, 3.52, 2.33, 3.43, 5.03, and 6.94 mm/year, respectively, for varying periods over 1922–2014. The highest and lowest rises in the mean level of the Black Sea were in Poti (7.01 mm/year) and in Varna (1.53 mm/year), respectively. Measurements from six Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations, which are very close to the tide gauges, also suggest that there were significant vertical land movements at some tide gauge locations. This study confirmed that according to the obtained average annual phase value of sea level observations, seasonal sea level variations in the Black Sea reach their maximum annual amplitude in May–June.

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Potential impacts of the mean sea level rise on the hydrodynamics of the Douro river estuary

Journal of Coastal Research ◽

10.2112/si65-330.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 165 ◽

pp. 1951-1956 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Renato Mendes ◽

Nuno Vaz ◽

João M. Dias

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

River Estuary ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

The Mean ◽

Douro River

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KENAIKAN MUKA AIR LAUT PERAIRAN SUMATERA BARAT BERDASARKAN DATA SATELIT ALTIMETRI JASON-2

GEOMATIKA ◽

10.24895/jig.2017.23-1.623 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Isna Uswatun Khasanah

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Sea Level Anomaly ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Development Plans ◽

The Mean

<p><em>The phenomenon of the sea level rise caused by many factors, one of which is global warming. Coastal areas are most vulnerable regions affected by sea level rise. Therefore, the information of sea level rise are used as consideration and policy-making on development plans for coastal areas like in West Sumatera Waters. The aims of this research are to identify the quality of Satelit Altimetry Jason-2 Data in West Sumatera Waters and to analysis the information of sea level rise of West Sumatera sea based on satelit altimetry Jason-2 data. Sea Level Rise in West Sumatera Water are identified by several steps, begin with collecting satellite altimetry Jason-2 data from 2008 to 2015 years. Then extraction Sea Surface Height (SSH) value of binary GDR data from Jason-2 by post processing to eliminate the geophysic errors, furthermore extraction undulation geoid value and calculating the Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) value. To identify the sea level rise value used linear regression analysis on the SLA data. The results of this research shown the existence of satellite altimetry Jason-2 data is 92.91%. The mean sea level rise in West Sumatera Waters during th period 8 year is 6.88 mm, and mean sea level rise of West Sumatera sea is 0.86 mm/year.</em></p>

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Adaptation of coastal structures to mean sea level rise

La Houille Blanche ◽

10.1051/lhb/2014063 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 54-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Philippe Sergent ◽

Guirec Prevot ◽

Giovanni Mattarolo ◽

Jérôme Brossard ◽

Gilles Morel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Structures ◽

Mean Sea Level

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Assessment of Sea Level Rise at West Coast of Portugal Mainland and Its Projection for the 21st Century

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse7030061 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 61 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Carlos Antunes

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

West Coast ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Relative Sea Level Rise ◽

Global Sea Level

Based on the updated relative sea level rise rates, 21st-century projections are made for the west coast of Portugal Mainland. The mean sea level from Cascais tide gauge and North Atlantic satellite altimetry data have been analyzed. Through bootstrapping linear regression and polynomial adjustments, mean sea level time series were used to calculate different empirical projections for sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent with an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Applying the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies, and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of vertical land velocity and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland. A mean sea level rise of 1.14 m was obtained for the epoch of 2100, with a likely range of 95% of probability between 0.39 m and 1.89 m.

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Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambique

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse9020205 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 205

Author(s):

Serafino Afonso Rui Mucova ◽

Ulisses Miranda Azeiteiro ◽

Walter Leal Filho ◽

Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽

João Miguel Dias ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

North Coast ◽

Coastal Regions ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Local Responses ◽

Ipcc Report ◽

Global Estimates

Mean sea-level is expected to rise significantly by 2100 in all scenarios, including those compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Global sea level rise projections indicate devastating implications for populations, ecosystem services and biodiversity. The implications of the sea-level rise (SLR) on low-lying islands and coastal regions and communities are substantial and require deep-rooted coping measures. In the absence of adequate responses for coping, Mozambique is expected to record huge losses, with an impact on the economy and development in many sectors of its coastal regions mainly in northern Mozambique. This research aimed to perform projections on SLR in Mozambique, and to understand its role and implications on the north coast of the country. SLR was estimated through the analysis of model outputs that support the global estimates of the fifth IPCC report near the Mozambican coast, for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Regional coastline retreat and coastal erosion were estimated through the results of global sandy coastlines projections developed by Vousdoukas. Mean sea-level rise projections indicate that regional estimates for the Mozambican coast are relative higher than global estimates (~0.05 m) for all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Yet, we highlight significant differences in sea-level rises of 0.5 m, 0.7 m or 1.0 m by 2100 compared to the global mean. It is expected that with the increase in the mean sea level in the northern part of the Mozambican coast, erosive effects will increase, as well as the retreat of the coastline until 2100. With this, the tourism sector, settlements, ecosystem services and local populations are expected to be significantly affected by 2050, with increased threats in 2100 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Local responses for coping are proposed and properly discussed for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios through 2100.

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Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091142 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1142

Author(s):

Juliano Calil ◽

Geraldine Fauville ◽

Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽

Kelly L. Leo ◽

Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Virtual Reality ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Community Outreach ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Multidisciplinary Teams ◽

Simple Task ◽

Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

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Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w13040545 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 545

Author(s):

Alexis K. Mills ◽

Peter Ruggiero ◽

John P. Bolte ◽

Katherine A. Serafin ◽

Eva Lipiec

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Water Levels ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Policy Decisions ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

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