Interactions of extreme river flows and sea levels for coastal flooding

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Robins ◽  
Lisa Harrison ◽  
Mariam Elnahrawi ◽  
Matt Lewis ◽  
Tom Coulthard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Relative Timing ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Flooding Hazards ◽  
Fluvial Response

<p>Coastal flooding worldwide causes the vast majority of natural disasters; for the UK costing £2.2 billion/year. Fluvial and surge-tide extremes can occur synchronously resulting in combination flooding hazards in estuaries, intensifying the flood risk beyond fluvial-only or surge-only events. Worse, this flood risk has the potential to increase further in the future as the frequency and/or intensity of these drivers change, combined with projected sea-level rise. Yet, the sensitivity of contrasting estuaries to combination and compound flooding hazards at sub-daily scales – now and in the future – is unclear. Here, we investigate the dependence between fluvial and surge interactions at sub-daily scales for contrasting catchment and estuary types (Humber vs. Dyfi, UK), using 50+ years of data: 15-min fluvial flows and hourly sea levels. Additionally, we simulate intra-estuary (<50 m resolution) sensitivities to combination flooding hazards based on: (1) realistic extreme events (worst-on-record); (2) realistic events with shifted timings of the drivers to maximise flooding; and (3) modified drivers representing projected climate change.</p><p>For well-documented flooding events, we show significant correlation between skew surge and peak fluvial flow, for the Dyfi (small catchment and estuary with a fast fluvial response on the west coast of Britain), with a higher dependence during autumn/winter months. In contrast, we show no dependence for the Humber (large catchment and estuary with a slow fluvial response on the east coast of Britain). Cross-correlation results, however, did show correlation with a time lag (~10 hours). For the Dyfi, flood extent was sensitive to the relative timing of the fluvial and surge-tide drivers. In contrast, the relative timing of these drivers did not affect flooding in the Humber. However, extreme fluvial flows in the Humber actually reduced water levels in the outer estuary, compared with a surge-only event. Projected future changes in these drivers by 2100 are likely to increase combination flooding hazards: sea-level rise scenarios predicted substantial and widespread flooding in both estuaries. However, similar increases in storm surge resulted in a greater seawater influx, altering the character of the flooding. Projected changes in fluvial volumes were the weakest driver of estuarine flooding. On the west coast of Britain containing many small/steep catchments, combination flooding hazards from fluvial and surges extremes occurring together is likely. Moreover, high-resolution data and hydrodynamic modelling are necessary to resolve the impact and inform flood mitigation methodology.</p>

scholarly journals Coldspot of Decelerated Sea-Level Rise on the Pacific Coast of North America

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Parker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Levels

Abstract We show here the presence of significant “coldspot” of sea level rise along the West Coast of the United States and Canada (including Alaska). The 30-years sea level for the area are mostly falling also at subsiding locations as San Francisco and Seattle where subsidence is responsible for a long term positive rate of rise. The 20 long term tide gauges of the area of length exceeding the 60-years length have a naïve average rate of rise −0.729 mm/year in the update 30-Apr-2015, down from −0.624 mm/year in the update 14-Feb-2014. Therefore, along the West Coast of the United States and Canada the sea levels are on average falling, and becoming more and more negative.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Estuaries to Compound Flooding

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. Harrison ◽  
Tom J. Coulthard ◽  
Peter E. Robins ◽  
Matthew J. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Relative Timing ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
Flooding Hazards ◽  
Fluvial Response ◽  
Outer Estuary

AbstractFluvial and surge-tide extremes can occur synchronously resulting in compound flooding in estuaries, greatly intensifying the hazard. This flood risk has the potential to increase in the future as the frequency, phasing and/or intensity of these drivers change. Improved understanding of how extreme fluvial discharge and surge-tides interact will help inform future flood mitigation methodology. In this paper, therefore, we resolve for the first time intra-estuary sensitivities to fluvial and surge-tide extremes, for two contrasting UK estuaries (Humber and Dyfi). Model simulations at hyper-spatial resolution (< 50 m) using a 2D hydrodynamic model predicted compound flooding hazards based on: (1) present-day extreme events (worst on record); (2) present-day extreme events with shifted timings of the drivers to maximise flooding; and (3) modified drivers representing projected climate change. We found that in a small estuary with short-duration, high-intensity fluvial inputs (Dyfi), flood extent is sensitive to the relative timing of the fluvial and surge-tide drivers. In contrast, the relative timing of these drivers did not affect flooding in a larger estuary with a slower fluvial response to rainfall (Humber). In the Humber, extreme fluvial inputs during a compound hazard actually reduced maximum water depths in the outer estuary, compared with a surge-tide-only event. Projected future changes in these drivers by 2100 will increase compound flooding hazards: simulated sea-level rise scenarios predicted substantial and widespread flooding in both estuaries. However, projected increases in surge-tide behaved differently to sea-level rise of the same magnitude, resulting in a greater seawater influx and more flooding. Increased fluvial volumes were the weakest driver of estuarine flooding. In this paper we show how these interactions are complex and how the hydrodynamics vary considerably between different estuaries and sites within estuaries, making it difficult to generalise, use probabilistic or use 1D approaches for assessing compound flooding hazards. Hence, we contribute new knowledge and methods for catchment-to-coast impact modelling used for flood mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Future flood risk exacerbated by the dynamic impacts of sea level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Bilskie ◽  
Diana Del Angel ◽  
David Yoskowitz ◽  
Scott Hagen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Landscapes ◽  
Block Level

Abstract A growing concern of coastal communities is an increase in flood risk and non-monetary consequences as a result of climate-induced impacts such as sea level rise (SLR). While previous studies have outlined the importance of quantifying future flood risk, most have focused on broad aggregations of monetary loss using bathtub SLR-type models. Here we quantify, for the first time at the multi-state scale, actual impacts to coastal communities at the census block level using a dynamic, high-resolution, biogeophysical modeling framework that accounts for future sea-levels and coastal landscapes. We demonstrate that future SLR can increase the number of damaged residential buildings by 600%, the population of displaced people by 500% and the need for shelter assistance of up to 460% from present-day conditions. An exponential increase in flood damage associated with increasing sea level deems it essential for stakeholders to plan for plausible future conditions rather than the current reality.

scholarly journals Assessment of Sea Level Rise at West Coast of Portugal Mainland and Its Projection for the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Antunes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The West ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Global Sea Level

Data collected at the Cascais tide gauge, located on the west coast of Portugal Mainland, have been analyzed and sea level rise rates have been updated. Based on a bootstrapping linear regression model and on polynomial adjustments, time series are used to calculate different empirical projections for the 21st century sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent to an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Appling the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of composed vertical land velocity from tectonic and post-glacial isostatic adjustment, and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects rather than a trend. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Coastal Inundation at Regional scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinay Shivamurthy ◽  
Bharath Aithal
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

&lt;p&gt;Coastal flooding are natural processes that are both i) essential (providing nutrients to the coastal vegetation, habitats) and ii) hazardous (negatively impact human activities, livelihood, assets, livestock and so on). Climate changes have induced higher frequency of floods, rising sea levels, high amplitude tides and other climatic extremes at regional to global scales. The increasing intensity, duration of floods is proportionately increasing the risks associated with coastal human habitations. The regional risks are defined based on the physical, demographic, socio-economic vulnerability of the habitants. Sea level rise would further enhance the coastal inundations permanently breaching these productive, densely populated regions. This necessitates the need for spatially assessing the relative hazard, vulnerability and risks at regional scales to reduce/mitigate risks.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Indian subcontinent supports the second largest global population, with numerous megacities, towns and villages along the coast and mainland. This study's main objective is to quantify the risk associated with inundations caused by rising sea levels, tidal surge at the regional level. As a case study, Sagar Island located in the verge of Sundarbans, south of West Bengal is considered. Flood risk assessment in the island has been carried out using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework based on 23 spatial parameters.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Results indicate, within a century (1922 &amp;#8211; 2020), the island has lost most of its natural vegetation (mangroves - Sundarbans) (47% to 3%), with increasing cultivated (agriculture, horticulture) spaces (77.4 %) and built-up environs (8.2%). Sea level rise varies from 4.4 mm/year (South) to 5.25 mm/year (North) and in the last century has breached over 2824 hectares of mainland. The study's findings reveal 19.8% of horticulture and 33.3% of agriculture assets are highly exposed to natural hazards. 1.34% population are at relatively very high-risk levels, 17.81% at high-risk levels. The study's findings reveal the variable importance of socio-economic, demographic, topographic and proximity to public service, in defining the flood vulnerability and risk towards the habitants. The approach and findings of paves the way for planning authorities to prioritise risk mitigation strategies that are region-specific to reduce the impact of inundation due to natural hazards&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Keywords: Sea level rise, Flood risk, MCDA, Vulnerability, flood hazard&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 774
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
Jochen Hinkel ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Erwin Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation Costs

Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise at regional scale (RSLR), as well as structural uncertainties related to the modelling of extreme sea levels, data on exposed population and assets, and the costs of flood damages, etc. This raises the following questions: which sources of uncertainty need to be considered in such assessments and what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final results? Using the coastal flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we extensively explore the impact of scenario, data and model uncertainties in a global manner, i.e., by considering a large number (>2000) of simulation results. The influence of the uncertainties on the two risk metrics of expected annual damage (EAD), and adaptation costs (AC) related to coastal protection is assessed at global scale by combining variance-based sensitivity indices with a regression-based machine learning technique. On this basis, we show that the research priorities in terms of future data/knowledge acquisition to reduce uncertainty on EAD and AC differ depending on the considered time horizon. In the short term (before 2040), EAD uncertainty could be significantly decreased by 25 and 75% if the uncertainty of the translation of physical damage into costs and of the modelling of extreme sea levels could respectively be reduced. For AC, it is RSLR that primarily drives short-term uncertainty (with a contribution ~50%). In the longer term (>2050), uncertainty in EAD could be largely reduced by 75% if the SSP scenario could be unambiguously identified. For AC, it is the RCP selection that helps reducing uncertainty (up to 90% by the end of the century). Altogether, the uncertainty in future human activities (SSP and RCP) are the dominant source of the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk.

scholarly journals Last interglacial sea-level proxies in the Korean Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo Hun Ryang ◽  
Alexander R. Simms ◽  
Hyun Ho Yoon ◽  
Seung Soo Chun ◽  
Gee Soo Kong
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Vertical Movement ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Marine Terraces ◽  
Data Points

Abstract. Like most of the world’s coastlines, the Korean Peninsula experienced higher-than-present sea levels during the Last Interglacial (LIG) otherwise known as Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e. However, the expression of that highstand in sea levels differs across the eastern and western Korean Peninsula. The active east coast of the Korean Peninsula is characterized by broad uplifted marine terraces, while the stable west coast is characterized by tidal flats and rias. In this study, we used a standardized database template to review and extract the existing constraints on LIG sea levels along both the east and west coasts of the Korean Peninsula. A total of 62 LIG constraining data points were compiled including 34 sea-level indicators, 22 marine limiting records, and 6 terrestrial limiting records. The ages from these data points are based on 61 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) measurements and 1 paleomagnetic-based age. Along the uplifted east coast, LIG sea-level indicators based on marine terraces are at elevations ranging from +9 to +32 m. The uplifted marine terraces are cut or otherwise deformed by faults developed under a compressional regime due to backarc closing of the East Sea since the early Pliocene. As a result, tectonic uplift likely contaminates the elevation of the east coast LIG shorelines. On the contrary, LIG sea-level constraints on the west coast of the Korean Peninsula are found at heights of between +2 and +5 m and include marine and terrestrial limiting records as well as true sea-level indicators. The LIG sea-level constraints along the west coast of the Korean Peninsula are likely uncontaminated by vertical movement or experienced minor subsidence during the Quaternary.

Holocene Sea-Level Rise Recorded by a Radiocarbon-Dated Mussel in a Submerged Speleothem beneath the Mediterranean Sea

1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Antonioli ◽  
Marco Oliverio
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Mussel Shell ◽  
The West ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Temperate Area ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Lithophaga Lithophaga

AbstractFossil shells of the boring mussel Lithophaga lithophaga provide a means for dating changes in relative sea level. These bivalves, being among the first colonizers of bare calcareous substrates, can mark the earliest stages of marine submergence of caves. Here we report data concerning the deepest submerged speleothem presently sampled in a temperate area, at 48 m below present sea level off the west coast of Italy (Mediterranean Sea). A fossil mussel shell beneath encrusting layers from later marine colonists gave an AMS age of 9580 ± 35 14C yr B.P. (10,253 ± 72 cal yr B.P.).

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