Abstract
Coastal wetland ecosystems and biodiversity are susceptible to changes in salinity brought about by the local effects of climate change, meteorological extremes, coastal evolution and human intervention. This study investigates changes in the salinity of surface water and the associated impacts on back-barrier wetlands as a result of breaching of a barrier beach and under the compound action of different surge heights, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), river discharge and rainfall. We show that barrier breaching can have significant effects in terms of vegetation die-back even without the occurrence of large storm surges or in the absence of SLR, and that rainfall alone is unlikely to be sufficient to mitigate increased salinity due to direct tidal flushing. Results demonstrate that an increase in sea level corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario for year 2100 causes a greater impact in terms of reedbed loss than storm surges up to 2 m with no SLR. In mitigation of the consequent changes in wetland ecology, regulation of relatively small and continuous river discharge can be regarded as a strategy for the management of coastal back-barrier wetland habitats and for the maintenance of brackish ecosystems. As such, this study provides a tool for scoping the potential impacts of storms, climate change and alternative management strategies on existing wetland habitats and species.
Development of Tools for Coastal Management in Google Earth Engine: Uncertainty Bathtub Model and Bruun Rule
