Risk-Controlled Wellbore Stability Criterion Based on Machine Learning Assisted Finite Element Model

In many drilling scenarios that include deep wells and highly stressed environments, the mud weight required to completely prevent wellbore instability can be impractically high. In such cases, what is known as risk-controlled wellbore stability criterion is introduced. This criterion allows for a certain level of wellbore instability to take place. This means that the mud weight calculated using this criterion will only constrain wellbore instability to a certain manageable level, hence the name risk-controlled. Conventionally, the allowable level of wellbore instability in this type of models has always been based on the magnitude of the breakout angle. However, wellbore enlargements, as seen in calipers and image logs, can be highly irregular in terms of its distribution around the wellbore. This irregularity means that risk-controlling the wellbore instability through the breakout angle might not be always sufficient. Instead, the total volume of cavings is introduced as the risk control parameter for wellbore instability. Unlike the breakout angle, the total volume of cavings can be coupled with a suitable hydraulics model to determine the threshold of manageable instability. The expected total volume of cavings is determined using a machine learning (ML) assisted 3D elasto-plastic finite element model (FEM). The FEM works to model the interval of interest, which eventually provides a description of the stress distribution around the wellbore. The ML algorithm works to learn the patterns and limits of rock failure in a supervised training manner based on the wellbore enlargement seen in calipers and image logs from nearby offset wells. Combing the FEM output with the ML algorithm leads to an accurate prediction of shear failure zones. The model is able to predict both the radial and circumferential distribution of enlargements at any mud weight and stress regime, which leads to a determination of the expected total volume of cavings. The model implementation is first validated through experimental data. The experimental data is based on true-triaxial tests of bored core samples. Next, a full dataset from offset wells is used to populate and train the model. The trained model is then used to produce estimations of risk-controlled stability mud weights for different drilling scenarios. The model results are compared against those produced by conventional methods. Finally, both the FEM-ML model and the conventional methods results are compared against the drilling experience of the offset wells. This methodology provides a more comprehensive and new solution to risk controlling wellbore instability. It relies on a novel process which learns rock failure from calipers and image logs.