Early prediction of pathologic response to neoadjuvant treatment of breast cancer: use of a cell-loss metric based on serum thymidine kinase 1 and tumour volume
Abstract Background After neoadjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer pathologic complete response (pCR) indicates a favourable prognosis. Among non-selected patients, pCR is, however, achieved in only 10-30%. Early evaluation of tumour response to treatment would facilitate individualized therapy, with ineffective chemotherapy interrupted or changed. The methodology for this purpose is still limited. Tumour imaging and analysis of macromolecules, released from disrupted tumour cells are principle alternatives.Objective To investigate whether a metric of cell-loss, defined as the ratio between serum concentration of thymidine kinase1 (sTK1) (ng x ml -1 ) and tumour volume (cm 3 ), can be used in the early prediction of pathologic response.Methods 104 women with localized breast cancer received neoadjuvant epirubicin/docetaxel in 6 cycles, supplemented with bevacizumab in cycles 3-6. The cell-loss metric was established at baseline (n=104), prior to cycle 2 (n=57) and 48h after cycle 2 (n=104). The performance of the metric was evaluated by association with pathologic tumour response at surgery ̴ 16 weeks later.Results Means for the three points of the metric were 0.007, 0.084 and 0.107 units. For each individual, the baseline value was subtracted from the 48-h value and patients were grouped into quartiles. Means of these were: 0.002, 0.011, 0.030 and 0.357 units. The cell-loss metric was associated with the pCR in the quartiles: 11%, 11%, 23% and 46% (p=0.01). In the 80 patients with remaining tumour, pathologic tumour size was inversely related to the metric (p=0.002). In the subgroup of 57 patients, data obtained prior to the 2nd cycle indicated a higher predictive value than the data obtained 48h after this treatment.Conclusion A cell-loss metric, established by combining serum levels of TK1, released from disrupted tumour cells, and tumour volume, reveal tumour response early during neoadjuvant treatment. The metric appears to reflect a tumour property that differ greatly between patients and determines the sensitivity to cytotoxic treatment. The findings point to the significance of cell loss for the growth rate of tumours. The metric should be considered in personalized oncology and in the evaluation of new therapeutic modalities.