Annual variability in sound acorn production was regulated by a generalist seed predator weevil in Quercus serrata
Abstract Highly variable and synchronous seed production within a population (‘masting’) could be from either synchronised high annual variability in floral initiation (‘flower masting’) or synchronised floral abortion until maturity (‘fruit maturation masting’). We investigated the demographic processes of the female organs from flowering to seed maturity, including each type of insect damage identified, in Quercus serrata in six individuals within a stand from 2014 to 2020, western Japan. Although the annual production of sound acorns was significantly correlated with that of female flowers, the annual variability in sound acorn production within an individual was significantly higher and their synchrony increased, compared to those of female flowers. The annual production of female flowers was positively correlated with the temperature difference in April between the previous and flowering years. However, their fluctuation was low, which was neither affected by seed and flower production in the previous year nor contributed to predator starvation. Key-factor analyses revealed that reproductive loss due to oviposition and sap suction by Mechoris ursulus , a generalist seed predator weevil for oak species, was the largest and most important factor that contributed to the annual variation in the total pre-dispersal loss of Q. serrata . The survival rate from female flowers to sound acorns was strongly predicted by the temperature in June, corresponding to the emergence of adult M. ursulus . This study suggests that highly variable and synchronous sound seed production can be proximately regulated by seed predation when the main predator is a generalist.