scholarly journals Public Transit Development Predicts Spatial Distribution of Dengue Virus Incidence in Medellín, Colombia

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talya Shragai ◽  
Juliana Perez-Perez ◽  
Marcela Quimbayo-Forero ◽  
Raul Rojo ◽  
Laura Harrington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Public Transit ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Transit Accessibility ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Global Threat

Abstract Dengue is a growing global threat in some of the world’s most rapidly growing landscapes. Urbanization and human movement affect the spatial dynamics and magnitude of dengue outbreaks; however, precise effects of urban growth on dengue is not well understood because of a lack of sufficiently fine-scaled data. We analyzed nine years of address-level dengue case data in Medellin, Colombia during a period of public transit expansion. We correlate changes in the spread and magnitude of localized outbreaks to changes in accessibility and usage of public transit. Locations closer to and with a greater utilization of public transit had greater dengue incidence. This relationship was modulated by socioeconomic status; lower socioeconomic status locations experienced stronger effects of public transit accessibility and usage on dengue incidence. Public transit is a vital urban resource, particularly among low socioeconomic populations; these results highlight the importance of public health services concurrent with urban growth.

scholarly journals Revealing two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jue Tao Lim ◽  
Yiting Han ◽  
Borame Sue Lee Dickens ◽  
Esther Li Wen Choo ◽  
Lawrence Zheng Xiong Chew ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dengue Epidemic

Abstract Background Thailand is home to around 69 million individuals. Dengue is hyper-endemic and all 4 serotypes are in active circulation in the country. Dengue outbreaks occur almost annually within Thailand in at least one province but the spatio-temporal and environmental interface of these outbreaks has not been studied. Methods We develop Bayesian regime switching (BRS) models to characterize outbreaks, their persistence and infer their likelihood of occurrence across time for each administrative province where dengue case counts are collected. BRS was compared against two other classification tools and their agreement is assessed. We further examine how these spatio-temporal clusters of outbreak clusters arise by comparing reported dengue case counts, urban population, urban land cover, climate and flight volumes on the province level. Results Two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters were found nationally. One cluster consists of 47 provinces and is highly outbreak prone. Provinces with a large number of case counts, urban population, urban land cover and incoming flight passengers are associated to the epidemic prone cluster of dengue. Climate has an effect on determining the probability of outbreaks over time within provinces, but have less influence on whether provinces belong to the epidemic prone cluster. BRS found high agreement with other classification tools. Conclusions Importation and urbanization drives the risk of outbreaks across regions strongly. In provinces estimated to have high epidemic persistence, more resource allocation to vector control should be applied to those localities as heightened transmission counts are likely to occur over a longer period of time. Clustering of epidemic and non-epidemic prone areas also highlights the need for prioritization of resource allocation for disease mitigation over provinces in Thailand.

scholarly journals Consequences of barriers and changing seasonality on population dynamics and harvest of migratory ungulates

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-605
Author(s):  
Bram Van Moorter ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
John M. Fryxell ◽  
Manuela Panzacchi ◽  
Erlend B. Nilsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Behavioral Avoidance ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Global Threat

AbstractMany animal populations providing ecosystem services, including harvest, live in seasonal environments and migrate between seasonally distinct ranges. Unfortunately, two major sources of human-induced global change threaten these populations: climate change and anthropogenic barriers. Anthropogenic infrastructure developments present a global threat to animal migrations through increased migration mortality or behavioral avoidance. Climate change alters the seasonal and spatial dynamics of resources and therefore the effects of migration on population performance. We formulated a population model with ideal-free migration to investigate changes in population size and harvest yield due to barriers and seasonal dynamics. The model predicted an increasing proportion of migrants when the difference between areas in seasonality or carrying capacity increased. Both migration cost and behavioral avoidance of barriers substantially reduced population size and harvest yields. Not surprisingly, the negative effects of barriers were largest when the population benefited most from migration. Despite the overall decline in harvest yield from a migratory population due to barriers, barriers could result in locally increased yield from the resident population following reduced competition from migrants. Our approach and results enhance the understanding of how global warming and infrastructure development worldwide may change population dynamics and harvest offtake affecting livelihoods and rural economies.

Transit Deserts: Equity analysis of public transit accessibility

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 102869
Author(s):  
Javad Jomehpour Chahar Aman ◽  
Janille Smith-Colin
Keyword(s):  
Public Transit ◽  
Equity Analysis ◽  
Transit Accessibility

scholarly journals Does metropolitan form affect transportation sustainability? Evidence from US metropolitan areas

2020 ◽  
pp. 239980832097131
Author(s):  
Andres Sevtuk ◽  
Reza Amindarbari
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Public Transit ◽  
Transit Accessibility ◽  
Transportation Sustainability ◽  
Open Source Gis ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Urban Scaling ◽  
Cultural Origins

In this paper, we examine transportation sustainability in American metropolitan areas using transportation-related CO2 emissions, public transit accessibility, and commuting times as indicators. Though variations in these indicators may stem from historic contexts, policies, institutional arrangements, social and cultural origins, the spatial structure of metropolitan areas—in particular their formal characteristics—may also be a contributing factor. To test this relationship, we identify metropolitan form metrics from prior literature that are expected to impact transportation outcomes, and choose five metrics to which we introduce significant improvements. We apply the metrics to all 166 Combined Statistical Areas in the US, using an open-source GIS toolbox released along with the paper. Our findings demonstrate that form-based metrics provide a better explanation to CO2 emissions, public transit accessibility, and commuting times in US metro areas than the simpler population size or density metrics typically used in practice. We also show that counter to prior literature on urban scaling laws and economies of scale, which have argued that larger cities and metro areas are more sustainable per capita, transport-related CO2 emissions and transit accessibility are actually less favorable in larger CSAs when controlling for formal characteristics of metropolitan areas. Instead of scale, compactness has the highest elasticity with respect to transportation sustainability of metro areas.

scholarly journals An Evaluating Method of Public Transit Accessibility for Urban Areas Based on GIS

2016 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 132-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Yan-yan ◽  
Wei Pan-yi ◽  
Lai Jian-hui ◽  
Feng Guo-chen ◽  
Li Xin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Public Transit ◽  
Transit Accessibility ◽  
Evaluating Method

scholarly journals Diffusion Pattern and Hotspot Detection of Dengue in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Eduardo Marques Pessanha Pessanha ◽  
Waleska Teixeira Caiaffa ◽  
Maria Cristina de Mattos Almeida ◽  
Silvana Tecles Brandão ◽  
Fernando Augusto Proietti
Keyword(s):  
Health Professionals ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Hotspot Detection ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
Home Address ◽  
Presence Data ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Diffusion Pattern ◽  
Belo Horizonte ◽  
The City

This study considers the dengue occurrence in the city of Belo Horizonte over the last fifteen years. Approximately 186,000 cases registered from 1996 to 2011 were analyzed. The home address of individuals whose dengue case was notified was used as a proxy for exposure location. For determining possible outbreaks of disease and the specific patterns of dengue cases, spatial statistics used included Kernel’s estimation. The occurrence of waves of dengue outbreaks was correlated with climatic and vector presence data. Outbreaks had different durations and intensities: case clustering, thinned out both spatially and temporally. These findings may be useful for public health professionals responsible for fighting the disease providing some tools for improving evaluation of interventions such as vector control and patient care, minimizing the collective and individual burden of the disease.

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