scholarly journals Machine learning uncovers aerosol size information from chemistry and meteorology to quantify potential cloud-forming particles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Nair ◽  
Fangqun Yu ◽  
Pedro Campuzano Jost ◽  
Paul DeMott ◽  
Ezra Levin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in climate change prediction. Here, we present a machine learning/artificial intelligence model that quantifies CCN from variables of aerosol composition, atmospheric trace gases, and meteorology. Comprehensive multi-campaign airborne measurements, covering varied physicochemical regimes in the troposphere, confirm the validity of and help probe the inner workings of this machine learning model: revealing for the first time that different ranges of atmospheric aerosol composition and mass correspond to distinct aerosol number size distributions. Machine learning extracts this information, important for accurate quantification of CCN, additionally from both chemistry and meteorology. This can provide a physicochemically explainable, computationally efficient, robust machine learning pathway in global climate models that only resolve aerosol composition; potentially mitigating the uncertainty of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) and improving confidence in assessment of anthropogenic contributions and climate change projections.

scholarly journals General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 17941-18160 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kulmala ◽  
A. Asmi ◽  
H. K. Lappalainen ◽  
U. Baltensperger ◽  
J.-L. Brenguier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Cloud

Abstract. In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) the first comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. This work enabled EUCAARI to improve our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.

scholarly journals Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol-cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Painemal ◽  
Fu-Lung Chang ◽  
Richard Ferrare ◽  
Sharon Burton ◽  
Zhujun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Error Characterization ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Aqua Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud-top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) from Aqua-MODIS yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations > 0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of less than 0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41 % of the spatial variance in MODIS Nd, whereas AOD only explains 17 %, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS Nd, accounting for a 16 % variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(Nd)−ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACI) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd−AOD pair.

A synthesis of observations of aerosol-cloud interactions over the pristine, biologically active Southern Ocean and their implications for global climate model predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
Leighton Regayre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Biologically Active ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Industrial State

<div> <p>The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth's climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. Examining pristine environments such as the Southern Ocean (SO) helps us to understand the pre-industrial state and constrain the change in cloud brightness over the industrial period associated with aci. This study presents two methods of utilizing observations of pristine environments to examine climate models and our understanding of the pre-industrial state.</p> </div><div> <p>First, cloud droplet number concentration (<em>N<sub>d</sub></em>) is used as an indicator of aci. Global climate models (GCMs) show that the hemispheric contrast in liquid cloud <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> between the pristine SO and the polluted Northern Hemisphere observed in the present-day can be used<strong> </strong>as a proxy for the increase in <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> from the pre-industrial. A hemispheric difference constraint developed from MODIS satellite observations indicates that pre-industrial <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> may have been higher than previously thought and provides an estimate of radiative forcing associated with aci between -1.2 and -0.6 Wm<sup>-2</sup>. Comparisons with MODIS <em>N<sub>d  </sub></em>highlight significant GCM discrepancies in pristine, biologically active regions.</p> </div><div> <p>Second, aerosol and cloud microphysical observations from a recent SO aircraft campaign are used to identify two potentially important mechanisms that are incomplete or missing in GCMs: i) production of new aerosol particles through synoptic uplift, and ii) buffering of <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> against precipitation removal by small, Aitken mode aerosols entrained from the free troposphere. The latter may significantly contribute to the high, summertime SO <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> levels which persist despite precipitation depletion associated with mid-latitude storm systems. Observational comparisons with nudged Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) hindcasts show low-biased SO <em>N<sub>d  </sub></em>is linked to under-production of free-tropospheric Aitken aerosol which drives low-biases in cloud condensation nuclei number and likely discrepancies in composition. These results have important implications for the ability of current GCMs to capture aci in pristine environments.</p> </div>

scholarly journals The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (32) ◽  
pp. 18998-19006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Leighton Regayre ◽  
Duncan Watson-Parris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Droplet Number Concentration ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm−3and 24 cm−3. By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m−2to −0.6 W⋅m−2. The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models.

scholarly journals Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol–cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 7167-7177 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Painemal ◽  
Fu-Lung Chang ◽  
Richard Ferrare ◽  
Sharon Burton ◽  
Zhujun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Error Characterization ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) from MODIS Aqua yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations ≥0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of 0.54–0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41 % of the spatial variance in MODIS Nd, whereas AOD only explains 17 %, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS Nd, accounting for a 16 % variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(Nd)–ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACIs) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd–AOD pair.

scholarly journals Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (19) ◽  
pp. 4899-4904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Johannes Quaas ◽  
Sylvaine Ferrachat ◽  
Andrew Gettelman ◽  
Steven Ghan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), previous studies have used the sensitivity of theNdto aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of theNdto anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms betweenNdand aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.

scholarly journals General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 13061-13143 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kulmala ◽  
A. Asmi ◽  
H. K. Lappalainen ◽  
U. Baltensperger ◽  
J.-L. Brenguier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Cloud

Abstract. In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.

scholarly journals New approaches to quantifying aerosol influence on the cloud radiative effect

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (21) ◽  
pp. 5812-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Feingold ◽  
Allison McComiskey ◽  
Takanobu Yamaguchi ◽  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The topic of cloud radiative forcing associated with the atmospheric aerosol has been the focus of intense scrutiny for decades. The enormity of the problem is reflected in the need to understand aspects such as aerosol composition, optical properties, cloud condensation, and ice nucleation potential, along with the global distribution of these properties, controlled by emissions, transport, transformation, and sinks. Equally daunting is that clouds themselves are complex, turbulent, microphysical entities and, by their very nature, ephemeral and hard to predict. Atmospheric general circulation models represent aerosol−cloud interactions at ever-increasing levels of detail, but these models lack the resolution to represent clouds and aerosol−cloud interactions adequately. There is a dearth of observational constraints on aerosol−cloud interactions. We develop a conceptual approach to systematically constrain the aerosol−cloud radiative effect in shallow clouds through a combination of routine process modeling and satellite and surface-based shortwave radiation measurements. We heed the call to merge Darwinian and Newtonian strategies by balancing microphysical detail with scaling and emergent properties of the aerosol−cloud radiation system.

scholarly journals Incorporation of advanced aerosol activation treatments into CESM/CAM5: model evaluation and impacts on aerosol indirect effects

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 7485-7497 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Gantt ◽  
J. He ◽  
X. Zhang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
A. Nenes
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Activation Kinetics ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Activation

Abstract. One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in the science of anthropogenic climate change is from aerosol–cloud interactions. The activation of aerosols into cloud droplets is a direct microphysical linkage between aerosols and clouds; parameterizations of this process link aerosol with cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the resulting indirect effects. Small differences between parameterizations can have a large impact on the spatiotemporal distributions of activated aerosols and the resulting cloud properties. In this work, we incorporate a series of aerosol activation schemes into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1 within the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM/CAM5) which include factors such as insoluble aerosol adsorption and giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics to understand their individual impacts on global-scale cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Compared to the existing activation scheme in CESM/CAM5, this series of activation schemes increase the computation time by ~10% but leads to predicted CDNC in better agreement with satellite-derived/in situ values in many regions with high CDNC but in worse agreement for some regions with low CDNC. Large percentage changes in predicted CDNC occur over desert and oceanic regions, owing to the enhanced activation of dust from insoluble aerosol adsorption and reduced activation of sea spray aerosol after accounting for giant CCN activation kinetics. Comparison of CESM/CAM5 predictions against satellite-derived cloud optical thickness and liquid water path shows that the updated activation schemes generally improve the low biases. Globally, the incorporation of all updated schemes leads to an average increase in column CDNC of 150% and an increase (more negative) in shortwave cloud forcing of 12%. With the improvement of model-predicted CDNCs and better agreement with most satellite-derived cloud properties in many regions, the inclusion of these aerosol activation processes should result in better predictions of radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions.

scholarly journals Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (21) ◽  
pp. 5781-5790 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H. Seinfeld ◽  
Christopher Bretherton ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
Hugh Coe ◽  
Paul J. DeMott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Large Range ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

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