scholarly journals Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (21) ◽  
pp. 5781-5790 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H. Seinfeld ◽  
Christopher Bretherton ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
Hugh Coe ◽  
Paul J. DeMott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Large Range ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

scholarly journals Snow-induced buffering in aerosol–cloud interactions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuro Michibata ◽  
Kentaroh Suzuki ◽  
Toshihiko Takemura
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Microphysical Process ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Complex aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions lead to large differences in estimates of aerosol impacts on climate among general circulation models (GCMs) and satellite retrievals. Typically, precipitating hydrometeors are treated diagnostically in most GCMs, and their radiative effects are ignored. Here, we quantify how the treatment of precipitation influences the simulated effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) using a state-of-the-art GCM with a two-moment prognostic precipitation scheme that incorporates the radiative effect of precipitating particles, and investigate how microphysical process representations are related to macroscopic climate effects. Prognostic precipitation substantially weakens the magnitude of ERFaci (by approximately 75 %) compared with the traditional diagnostic scheme, and this is the result of the increased longwave (warming) and weakened shortwave (cooling) components of ERFaci. The former is attributed to additional adjustment processes induced by falling snow, and the latter stems largely from riming of snow by collection of cloud droplets. The significant reduction in ERFaci does not occur without prognostic snow, which contributes mainly by buffering the cloud response to aerosol perturbations through depleting cloud water via collection. Prognostic precipitation also alters the regional pattern of ERFaci, particularly over northern mid-latitudes where snow is abundant. The treatment of precipitation is thus a highly influential controlling factor of ERFaci, contributing more than other uncertain tunable processes related to aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. This change in ERFaci caused by the treatment of precipitation is large enough to explain the existing difference in ERFaci between GCMs and observations.

scholarly journals New approaches to quantifying aerosol influence on the cloud radiative effect

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (21) ◽  
pp. 5812-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Feingold ◽  
Allison McComiskey ◽  
Takanobu Yamaguchi ◽  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The topic of cloud radiative forcing associated with the atmospheric aerosol has been the focus of intense scrutiny for decades. The enormity of the problem is reflected in the need to understand aspects such as aerosol composition, optical properties, cloud condensation, and ice nucleation potential, along with the global distribution of these properties, controlled by emissions, transport, transformation, and sinks. Equally daunting is that clouds themselves are complex, turbulent, microphysical entities and, by their very nature, ephemeral and hard to predict. Atmospheric general circulation models represent aerosol−cloud interactions at ever-increasing levels of detail, but these models lack the resolution to represent clouds and aerosol−cloud interactions adequately. There is a dearth of observational constraints on aerosol−cloud interactions. We develop a conceptual approach to systematically constrain the aerosol−cloud radiative effect in shallow clouds through a combination of routine process modeling and satellite and surface-based shortwave radiation measurements. We heed the call to merge Darwinian and Newtonian strategies by balancing microphysical detail with scaling and emergent properties of the aerosol−cloud radiation system.

scholarly journals A global satellite view of aerosol cloud interactions

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 6823-6836 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Luo
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Long-term and large-scale correlations between Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical depth and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) monthly cloud amount data show significant regional scale relationships between cloud amount and aerosols, consistent with aerosol-cloud interactions. Positive correlations between aerosols and cloud amount are associated with North American and Asian aerosols in the North Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, and mineral aerosols in the tropical North Atlantic. Negative correlations are seen near biomass burning regions of North Africa and Indonesia, as well as south of the main mineral aerosol source of North Africa. These results suggest that there are relationships between aerosols and clouds in the observations that can be used by general circulation models to verify the correct forcing mechanisms for both direct and indirect radiative forcing by clouds.

scholarly journals Snow-induced buffering in aerosol–cloud interactions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 13771-13780
Author(s):  
Takuro Michibata ◽  
Kentaroh Suzuki ◽  
Toshihiko Takemura
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
Microphysical Process ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Complex aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions lead to large differences in estimates of aerosol impacts on climate among general circulation models (GCMs) and satellite retrievals. Typically, precipitating hydrometeors are treated diagnostically in most GCMs, and their radiative effects are ignored. Here, we quantify how the treatment of precipitation influences the simulated effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) using a state-of-the-art GCM with a two-moment prognostic precipitation scheme that incorporates the radiative effect of precipitating particles, and we investigate how microphysical process representations are related to macroscopic climate effects. Prognostic precipitation substantially weakens the magnitude of ERFaci (by approximately 54 %) compared with the traditional diagnostic scheme, and this is the result of the increased longwave (warming) and weakened shortwave (cooling) components of ERFaci. The former is attributed to additional adjustment processes induced by falling snow, and the latter stems largely from riming of snow by collection of cloud droplets. The significant reduction in ERFaci does not occur without prognostic snow, which contributes mainly by buffering the cloud response to aerosol perturbations through depleting cloud water via collection. Prognostic precipitation also alters the regional pattern of ERFaci, particularly over northern midlatitudes where snow is abundant. The treatment of precipitation is thus a highly influential controlling factor of ERFaci, contributing more than other uncertain “tunable” processes related to aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. This change in ERFaci caused by the treatment of precipitation is large enough to explain the existing difference in ERFaci between GCMs and observations.

scholarly journals Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

2000 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 583-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Soon ◽  
E. Posmentier ◽  
S. Baliunas
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Solar Uv

Abstract. We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions)

scholarly journals Machine learning uncovers aerosol size information from chemistry and meteorology to quantify potential cloud-forming particles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Nair ◽  
Fangqun Yu ◽  
Pedro Campuzano Jost ◽  
Paul DeMott ◽  
Ezra Levin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Airborne Measurements ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are mediators of aerosol–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in climate change prediction. Here, we present a machine learning/artificial intelligence model that quantifies CCN from variables of aerosol composition, atmospheric trace gases, and meteorology. Comprehensive multi-campaign airborne measurements, covering varied physicochemical regimes in the troposphere, confirm the validity of and help probe the inner workings of this machine learning model: revealing for the first time that different ranges of atmospheric aerosol composition and mass correspond to distinct aerosol number size distributions. Machine learning extracts this information, important for accurate quantification of CCN, additionally from both chemistry and meteorology. This can provide a physicochemically explainable, computationally efficient, robust machine learning pathway in global climate models that only resolve aerosol composition; potentially mitigating the uncertainty of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) and improving confidence in assessment of anthropogenic contributions and climate change projections.

scholarly journals The source of discrepancies in aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions between GCM and A-Train retrievals

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (23) ◽  
pp. 15413-15424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuro Michibata ◽  
Kentaroh Suzuki ◽  
Yousuke Sato ◽  
Toshihiko Takemura
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Systematic Difference ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Light Rain ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Nonlinear Complexity ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions are one of the most uncertain processes in climate models due to their nonlinear complexity. A key complexity arises from the possibility that clouds can respond to perturbed aerosols in two opposite ways, as characterized by the traditional “cloud lifetime” hypothesis and more recent “buffered system” hypothesis. Their importance in climate simulations remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the response of the liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol perturbations for warm clouds from the perspective of general circulation model (GCM) and A-Train remote sensing, through process-oriented model evaluations. A systematic difference is found in the LWP response between the model results and observations. The model results indicate a near-global uniform increase of LWP with increasing aerosol loading, while the sign of the response of the LWP from the A-Train varies from region to region. The satellite-observed response of the LWP is closely related to meteorological and/or macrophysical factors, in addition to the microphysics. The model does not reproduce this variability of cloud susceptibility (i.e., sensitivity of LWP to perturbed aerosols) because the parameterization of the autoconversion process assumes only suppression of rain formation in response to increased cloud droplet number, and does not consider macrophysical aspects that serve as a mechanism for the negative responses of the LWP via enhancements of evaporation and precipitation. Model biases are also found in the precipitation microphysics, which suggests that the model generates rainwater readily even when little cloud water is present. This essentially causes projections of unrealistically frequent and light rain, with high cloud susceptibilities to aerosol perturbations.

scholarly journals Developing a western Siberia reference site for tropospheric water vapour isotopologue observations obtained by different techniques (in situ and remote sensing)

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 5943-5957 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Gribanov ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
V. Bastrikov ◽  
J.-L. Bonne ◽  
F.-M. Breon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Forest Site ◽  
Atmospheric Water ◽  
Local Measurements

Abstract. Water stable isotopologues provide integrated tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, affected by changes in air mass origin, non-convective and convective processes and continental recycling. Novel remote sensing and in situ measuring techniques have recently offered opportunities for monitoring atmospheric water vapour isotopic composition. Recently developed infrared laser spectrometers allow for continuous in situ measurements of surface water vapour δDv and δ18Ov. So far, very few intercomparisons of measurements conducted using different techniques have been achieved at a given location, due to difficulties intrinsic to the comparison of integrated with local measurements. Nudged simulations conducted with high-resolution isotopically enabled general circulation models (GCMs) provide a consistent framework for comparison with the different types of observations. Here, we compare simulations conducted with the ECHAM5-wiso model with two types of water vapour isotopic data obtained during summer 2012 at the forest site of Kourovka, western Siberia: hourly ground-based FTIR total atmospheric columnar δDv amounts, and in situ hourly Picarro δDv measurements. There is an excellent correlation between observed and predicted δDv at surface while the comparison between water column values derived from the model compares well with FTIR estimates.

A synthesis of observations of aerosol-cloud interactions over the pristine, biologically active Southern Ocean and their implications for global climate model predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
Leighton Regayre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Biologically Active ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Industrial State

<div> <p>The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth's climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. Examining pristine environments such as the Southern Ocean (SO) helps us to understand the pre-industrial state and constrain the change in cloud brightness over the industrial period associated with aci. This study presents two methods of utilizing observations of pristine environments to examine climate models and our understanding of the pre-industrial state.</p> </div><div> <p>First, cloud droplet number concentration (<em>N<sub>d</sub></em>) is used as an indicator of aci. Global climate models (GCMs) show that the hemispheric contrast in liquid cloud <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> between the pristine SO and the polluted Northern Hemisphere observed in the present-day can be used<strong> </strong>as a proxy for the increase in <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> from the pre-industrial. A hemispheric difference constraint developed from MODIS satellite observations indicates that pre-industrial <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> may have been higher than previously thought and provides an estimate of radiative forcing associated with aci between -1.2 and -0.6 Wm<sup>-2</sup>. Comparisons with MODIS <em>N<sub>d  </sub></em>highlight significant GCM discrepancies in pristine, biologically active regions.</p> </div><div> <p>Second, aerosol and cloud microphysical observations from a recent SO aircraft campaign are used to identify two potentially important mechanisms that are incomplete or missing in GCMs: i) production of new aerosol particles through synoptic uplift, and ii) buffering of <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> against precipitation removal by small, Aitken mode aerosols entrained from the free troposphere. The latter may significantly contribute to the high, summertime SO <em>N<sub>d</sub></em> levels which persist despite precipitation depletion associated with mid-latitude storm systems. Observational comparisons with nudged Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) hindcasts show low-biased SO <em>N<sub>d  </sub></em>is linked to under-production of free-tropospheric Aitken aerosol which drives low-biases in cloud condensation nuclei number and likely discrepancies in composition. These results have important implications for the ability of current GCMs to capture aci in pristine environments.</p> </div>

scholarly journals The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (32) ◽  
pp. 18998-19006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Leighton Regayre ◽  
Duncan Watson-Parris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Droplet Number Concentration ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm−3and 24 cm−3. By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m−2to −0.6 W⋅m−2. The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models.

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