scholarly journals Modeling anticipated changes in numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections within communities due to immunization campaigns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Frey ◽  
Brittany Hagedorn ◽  
Kevin A McCarthy ◽  
Raymond Hutubessy ◽  
Susan Annemarie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Transmission Intensity ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Demographic Profiles ◽  
Childhood Vaccine ◽  
Delivery Strategies ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As SARS-CoV-2 spread in early 2020, uncertainty about the scope, duration, and impact of the unfolding outbreaks caused numerous countries to interrupt many routine activities, including health services. Because immunization is an essential health service, modeling changes in SARS-CoV-2 infections among communities and health workers due to different vaccination activities was undertaken to understand the risks and to inform approaches to resume services. Methods Agent-based modeling examined the impact of Supplemental Immunization Activities (SIAs) delivery strategies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in communities and health workers for six countries capturing various demographic profiles and health system performance: Angola, Ecuador, Lao PDR, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ukraine. Results Urban, fixed-post SIAs during periods of high SARS-CoV-2 prevalence increased infections within the community by around 28 [range:0–79] per 1000 vaccinations. House-to-house SIAs in mixed urban and rural contexts may import infections into previously naïve communities. Infections are elevated by around 60 [range:0-230] per 1000 vaccinations, but outcomes are sensitive to prevalence in health workers and SIA timing relative to peak. Conclusions Younger populations experience lower transmission intensity and fewer excess infections per childhood vaccine delivered. Large rural populations have lower transmission intensity but face a greater risk of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 during an SIA.

traffic, urban

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Poehler
Keyword(s):  
Urban Environments ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Literary Analysis ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Formal Systems ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Ancient People ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
The Impact

The movement of people, animals, and vehicles through the ancient urban environment had a significant impact on the shape of ancient cities, but as an object of study, urban traffic is a relatively recent area of interest, one that has tended to focus on the Roman world. The range of methods available to consider the topic, however, are relatively many, including literary analysis, archaeological field survey, and a battery of technical methods, such as Space Syntax, Network Analysis, and Agent-Based Modeling. In all of these approaches, two models of movement—pedestrian and vehicular—remain paramount. The results of studying urban traffic have shed new light on the impact of different forms of urban design, the ways in which ancient people navigated those designs, and norms and formal systems in place in urban environments to order the movement of people and vehicles.

Influence of the Chinese Government Subsidy Policies on Supply Chain Members’ Profits: An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 623-632
Author(s):  
Ran Zhang ◽  
◽  
Jie Lin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Government Subsidy ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Profit Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

The series of subsidy policies launched by the Chinese government has affected supply chain members’ profits distribution. To explore this influence, an agent-based model was designed, and experiments were conducted under different subsidy levels. Our model focused on the ordinary business entities and their activities in the supply chain. By investigating the real world and other researchers’ studies, agent simulation class library (e.g., control agents, cooperation/collaboration agents, and fractal simulation agents) and their decision knowledge bases were designed to simulate the supply chain members’ behaviors, decision processes, and operation and production activities and behaviors. Price model, demand model and profit model under the subsidy were built to evaluate the supply chain members’ profits under different subsidy scenarios. Finally, a multi-echelon appliance supply chain model was constructed, and experiments were performed with different levels of subsidy limit. Results showed that the supply chain members’ profits increased under the government subsidy policy. The agent-based modeling and simulation method provides a novel approach to explore the impact on profit distribution.

Agent-based modeling for the self-management of chronic diseases: An exploratory study

SIMULATION ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (9) ◽  
pp. 781-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Montagna ◽  
Andrea Omicini
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
The Impact

The impact of mobile technologies on healthcare is particularly evident in the case of self-management of chronic diseases, where they can decrease spending and improve life quality of patients. We propose the adoption of agent-based modeling and simulation techniques as built-in tools to dynamically monitor the state of patient health and provide recommendations for self-management. To demonstrate the feasibility of our proposal we focus on Type 1 diabetes mellitus as our case study, and provide simulation results where the dynamic evolution of signal parameters is shown in the case of healthy and Type 1 diabetes mellitus patients, focussing in particular on the beneficial effects that self-management interventions have on plasma glucose values.

An agent-based modeling approach for simulating the impact of small unmanned aircraft systems on future battlefields

2020 ◽  
pp. 154851292096390
Author(s):  
Carsten Christensen ◽  
John Salmon
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Implementation Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft Systems ◽  
Military Doctrine ◽  
Small Unit ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Aircraft Systems ◽  
The Impact

The increasing proliferation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUASs) is forcing a paradigm shift in military doctrine surrounding counter-sUAS and sUAS deployment tactics. This work describes an agent-based model that incorporates established infantry small unit tactics with the ability to deploy sUASs to aid in surveillance and indirect fire targeting. The model is based on current military doctrine and real warfighter experiences and is presented as a foundation from which additional simulation capabilities and analyses may be created. A series of randomly generated situations sets a defending force with the potential to have sUAS capabilities against a superior attacking force without sUAS capabilities. A control case considers defenders without sUAS capabilities. In six experimental cases, defending forces deploy a single sUAS in one of six patrol patterns as a surveillance and indirect fire targeting tool. Subsequent analysis reveals that sUASs generally increase the odds of defender survival during an engagement and that short-range, concentrated patrol patterns lead to higher odds of defender survival and increased indirect fire opportunities. A battery of analyses showcase the model’s capabilities in terms of exploring novel sUAS implementation strategies and illustrating the impact of those strategies over a range of combat effectiveness metrics.

Rethinking Microfinance in a Dual Financial System: An Agent-based Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-29
Author(s):  
Sara Bourhime ◽  
Mohamed Tkiouat
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Complex Environment ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Real ◽  
New Methods ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Challenge

Abstract Critics concerning the real impact of traditional microfinance as a tool for poverty alleviation are becoming frequent. In contrast, the financial crisis brought out interest for Islamic finance, whose models have been increasingly studied. Today, the real challenge lies in evaluating the impact of microfinance in a complex environment, where both Islamic and conventional microfinance institutions exist and address evolving clients in constant interaction. New methods and models are therefore needed in order to test the efficacy and assess the impact of introducing Islamic microfinance products, compared to the conventional system. In this context, this paper proposes an approach to build an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) framework, which is aiming to test the effects of such products implementation using Islamic interest-free group loans. It also helps assess the impact of the behavioral biases as well as agents’ interactions within the repayment process.

Combating Malaria

2011 ◽  
pp. 66-86
Author(s):  
Narjès Bellamine-BenSaoud ◽  
Fatima Rateb
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Complexity Theory ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Human Actors ◽  
Cyclic Fluctuation ◽  
The Impact

In this chapter, we investigate how complexity theory and more particularly how agent-based modeling and simulation can benefit the explanation of the impact of education on malaria health care in Haiti. Our model includes: (1) the environment, encompassing mainly cities, roads, hospitals and schools; (2) the agents, modeling the human actors, who can be safe or infected by malaria disease according to their location in the environment; and (3) a modelled agent can also be mobile or not, can reproduce, and can die. We run four kinds of experiments over a 50-year period each. Our main emerging results are growing total agent, susceptible, and immune populations in a “cyclic” fluctuation form. Furthermore, we confirm the positive impact of both education and hospitals in combating malaria disease.

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