scholarly journals An Interactive Economic Decision Support Tool for Risk and Return Analysis of Organic Apple Production

2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 757-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector German Rodriguez ◽  
Jennie Popp ◽  
Curt Rom ◽  
Heather Friedrich ◽  
Jason McAfee
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Apple Orchard ◽  
Organic Production ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Economic Decision ◽  
Apple Production

Numerous apple (Malus ×domestica) research experiments have shown that organic apples can be both profitable and sustainable, especially in the Pacific northwestern United States. However, there is limited published research on the profitability of organic apple orchards in the southern U.S. region. Surveys of southern U.S. stakeholders have indicated that great opportunities exist for markets of both fresh and processed fruit, but significant challenges still exist. These challenges include a lack of information available on the economic impacts of different organic production practices and the potential returns available from organic production. In response to these challenges, we developed a user-friendly interactive economic decision support tool using spreadsheet software to simulate organic apple production in Arkansas and across the southern United States. The purpose of this interactive economic decision support tool is 2-fold: 1) to assist producers in the evaluation of costs, returns, and risks associated with their organic apple orchard and 2) to assess changes to cost, return, and risk as expected costs, prices, and/or yields change. The production budget components of the interactive economic decision support tool estimate variable and fixed costs, gross revenues, and net returns for 18 years of production. In addition, this interactive economic decision support tool provides economic analyses regarding: 1) the operation’s breakeven (price and yield) points, 2) sensitivity analyses or “what if” scenarios related to changes in costs and returns, and 3) risk assessment by calculating the probability of obtaining a positive net present value (NPV) over the life of the organic apple orchard. This manuscript describes the development of this interactive economic decision support tool and provides an example of how it works.

scholarly journals OPTIMIZING USABILITY OF AN ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL: PROTOTYPE OF THE EQUIPT TOOL

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Long Cheung ◽  
Mickaël Hiligsmann ◽  
Maximilian Präger ◽  
Teresa Jones ◽  
Judit Józwiak-Hagymásy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Research Impact ◽  
Heuristic Evaluation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Thinking Aloud ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Economic Decision ◽  
Usability Problems

Objectives:Economic decision-support tools can provide valuable information for tobacco control stakeholders, but their usability may impact the adoption of such tools. This study aims to illustrate a mixed-method usability evaluation of an economic decision-support tool for tobacco control, using the EQUIPT ROI tool prototype as a case study.Methods:A cross-sectional mixed methods design was used, including a heuristic evaluation, a thinking aloud approach, and a questionnaire testing and exploring the usability of the Return of Investment tool.Results:A total of sixty-six users evaluated the tool (thinking aloud) and completed the questionnaire. For the heuristic evaluation, four experts evaluated the interface. In total twenty-one percent of the respondents perceived good usability. A total of 118 usability problems were identified, from which twenty-six problems were categorized as most severe, indicating high priority to fix them before implementation.Conclusions:Combining user-based and expert-based evaluation methods is recommended as these were shown to identify unique usability problems. The evaluation provides input to optimize usability of a decision-support tool, and may serve as a vantage point for other developers to conduct usability evaluations to refine similar tools before wide-scale implementation. Such studies could reduce implementation gaps by optimizing usability, enhancing in turn the research impact of such interventions.

Development of a Decision Support Tool to Guide Management of Adults with Sickle Cell Disease: The Emergency Department Sickle Cell Assessment of Strengths and Needs (ED-SCANS).

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 1413-1413
Author(s):  
Paula Tanabe ◽  
Ted Wun ◽  
Victoria Thornton ◽  
Knox Todd ◽  
John S Lyons
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Sickle Cell ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
The United States ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
Data Elements

Abstract Abstract 1413 Poster Board I-436 Objectives: There are relatively few centers across the United States that either specialize in SCD care or have day hospitals where patients can be evaluated and urgently treated for acute pain crises. While most patients come to the ED for management of an acute pain crisis, SCD patients are at risk for many life-threatening complications. Most patients with SCD require an ED visit at some point. The complexity of SCD warrants a comprehensive assessment in the emergency department. While it may be challenging to conduct such an assessment in the ED, a succinct decision support tool may help guide clinicians in the performance of such an assessment. The benefits of such an assessment would identify unmet patient needs and help guide ED management and referrals. The goal of this project was to develop a brief, easy to use tool that guides the emergency clinicians in the identification of such needs and aid in accomplishing the following goals: 1) rapidly and aggressively manage ED pain, 2) identify other life-threatening conditions, 3) decrease hospital admission rates, 4) decrease return visits to the ED, 5) identify and increase the number of referrals made from the ED setting, and 6) increase both patient and clinician satisfaction with the ED experience. Methods: A series of seven clinician and patient focus groups were conducted in four cities across the United States (Chicago, Denver, Durham, and New York) to obtain key stakeholder input. Visits at three SCD centers of excellence (University of Colorado Denver, Duke University, Virginia Commonwealth University) were conducted, a literature search was conducted, and the PI attended SCD clinics to observe practice patterns with sickle cell experts at the University of Illinois and University of Chicago sickle cell clinics. Focus group data was analyzed using qualitative methods and is reported elsewhere. All data was synthesized and a draft tool was created and reviewed by outside experts. Revisions were made. Results: The following six key decisions were identified as being critical in achieving the tools aims: (1) what is the correct triage level, (2) how should pain be treated, (3) does the patient require a diagnostic work-up, (4) should the patient be admitted to the hospital, (5) if discharged home, is there a need for analgesic prescriptions, and (6) does the patient need a referral to a sickle cell expert or mental health or social services? Supporting data elements for each decision were also identified and included as part of the tool which will be formulated into an easy to use algorithm. Data elements include key history and physical indicators of a potential high risk situation necessitating further evaluation, pain assessment and history of analgesic use, relationship with a sickle cell expert, ED and hospital utilization history, and evaluation of psychosocial needs (self-report of anxiety or depression, work/employment status, home situation). Conclusions: Critical decisions and associated supporting elements to facilitate ED management were identified. Future work will involve finalizing and testing this communimetric tool, which will guide emergency department evaluation and management, as well as guide analgesic management in real time. Disclosures: Tanabe: NIH, and Mayday Fund: Research Funding. Todd: NIH: Research Funding; Xanodyne: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; Alpharma: Consultancy; Abbott: Consultancy; Baxter Healthcare: Consultancy; Fralex Therapeutics: Consultancy; Intranasal Therapeutics: Consultancy; Baxter Health: Research Funding; Roxro: Consultancy.

scholarly journals DDRP: Real-time phenology and climatic suitability modeling of invasive insects

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0244005
Author(s):  
Brittany S. Barker ◽  
Leonard Coop ◽  
Tyson Wepprich ◽  
Fritzi Grevstad ◽  
Gericke Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Insect Species ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Invasive Insect ◽  
Management Actions

Rapidly detecting and responding to new invasive species and the spread of those that are already established is essential for reducing their potential threat to food production, the economy, and the environment. We describe a new spatial modeling platform that integrates mapping of phenology and climatic suitability in real-time to provide timely and comprehensive guidance for stakeholders needing to know both where and when invasive insect species could potentially invade the conterminous United States. The Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform serves as an open-source and relatively easy-to-parameterize decision support tool to help detect new invasive threats, schedule monitoring and management actions, optimize biological control, and predict potential impacts on agricultural production. DDRP uses a process-based modeling approach in which degree-days and temperature stress are calculated daily and accumulate over time to model phenology and climatic suitability, respectively. Outputs include predictions of the number of completed generations, life stages present, dates of phenological events, and climatically suitable areas based on two levels of climate stress. Species parameter values can be derived from laboratory and field studies or estimated through an additional modeling step. DDRP is written entirely in R, making it flexible and extensible, and capitalizes on multiple R packages to generate gridded and graphical outputs. We illustrate the DDRP modeling platform and the process of model parameterization using two invasive insect species as example threats to United States agriculture: the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, and the small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis. We then discuss example applications of DDRP as a decision support tool, review its potential limitations and sources of model error, and outline some ideas for future improvements to the platform.

scholarly journals DDRP: real-time phenology and climatic suitability modeling of invasive insects

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brittany S. Barker ◽  
Leonard Coop ◽  
Tyson Wepprich ◽  
Fritzi Grevstad ◽  
Gericke Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Insect Species ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Invasive Insect ◽  
Management Actions

AbstractRapidly detecting and responding to new invasive species and the spread of those that are already established is essential for reducing their potential threat to food production, the economy, and the environment. We describe a new multi-species spatial modeling platform that integrates mapping of phenology and climatic suitability in real-time to provide timely and comprehensive guidance for stakeholders needing to know both where and when invasive insect species could potentially invade the conterminous United States. The Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform serves as an open-source and relatively easy-to-parameterize decision support tool to help detect new invasive threats, schedule monitoring and management actions, optimize biological control, and predict potential impacts on agricultural production. DDRP uses a process-based modeling approach in which degree-days and temperature stress are calculated daily and accumulate over time to model phenology and climatic suitability, respectively. Products include predictions of the number of completed generations, life stages present, dates of phenological events, and climatically suitable areas based on two levels of climate stress. Species parameter values can be derived from laboratory and field studies, and from published and newly fitted CLIMEX models. DDRP is written entirely in R, making it flexible and extensible, and capitalizes on multiple R packages to generate gridded and graphical outputs. We illustrate the DDRP modeling platform and the process of model parameterization using two invasive insect species as example threats to United States agriculture: the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, and the small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis. We then discuss example applications of DDRP as a decision support tool, review its potential limitations and sources of model error, and outline some ideas for future improvements to the platform.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document