Review of the Biology, Distribution, and Management of the Invasive Fireweed (Senecio madagascariensis Poir)

Whilst exotic invasive species are a major threat to natural and modified ecosystems around the world, management programs to reduce their impacts often fail due to a lack of information about their biology and how best to control them in various situations. This paper reviews the currently available information on the biology, distribution, and management options for the invasive weed Senecio madagascariensis Poir. (fireweed). In addition, we developed a model to predict the climatic suitability of this weed around the world based on the current climate. Senecio madagascariensis originates from southern Africa but it has been introduced to several other countries including Australia. Climatic suitability suggests that there are large areas around the world suitable for the weed’s growth where it is currently not present. The weed poses a major threat to livestock industries in these countries through its ability to reduce pasture production and poison animals. A range of control techniques have been used to try and manage S. madagascariensis. This paper highlights how a better understanding of the biology of S. madagascariensis can help determine the most effective treatments to impose and to further develop integrated management strategies. Besides using traditional approaches, the use of competitive pastures and more tolerant livestock (such as sheep and goats) are some of the other options recommended as part of an integrated approach. On-going research to identify host-specific biological control agents is also considered a priority.

Are Climates in Canada and the United States Suitable for the European Spruce Bark Beetle, Ips typographus, and Its Fungal Associate, Endoconidiophora polonica?

Invasions of exotic forest insects and pathogens can devastate evolutionarily naïve habitats and could cause irreversible changes to urban and natural ecosystems. Given the ever-increasing volume of trade in wood and plant stock worldwide, establishment of non-native pests under climate change is one of the most important forest health concerns currently. The European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, is a damaging, phloem-feeding insect of Norway spruce, Picea abies, in Eurasia. Endoconidiophora polonica is the most virulent ophiostomatoid fungal associate of I. typographus. Spruce species native to North America are susceptible to this insect-pathogen complex. We studied the suitability of ‘current’ (1970–2000) and future climates (2021–2100) in Canada and the United States for these two species via ensemble species distribution models. We also determined overlapping regions favorable to both I. typographus and E. polonica. Our results indicate that, currently, climate is particularly suitable for I. typographus and E. polonica in western Canada and throughout the United States. Northward shifts in climatic suitability are projected to occur in Canada for both species under climate change. By the end of the 21st century, a coast-to-coast corridor of climatic suitability for I. typographus and E. polonica will occur in Canada under high-temperature regimes.

Evolutionary history of the two North African hedgehogs (Mammalia: Erinaceidae) Atelerix algirus and Paraechinus aethiopicus based on phylogeography and species distribution modelling

Two species of hedgehogs are known to occur in northern part of Africa: the Algerian hedgehog Atelerix algirus and the Ethiopian hedgehog Paraechinus aethiopicus. Within each species several subspecies were described based on morphometrical data and pelage coloration, but all these subspecies have enigmatic and unclear definitions. We investigated the phylogeographical history and taxonomy of these two species based on mitochondrial DNA data covering the entire geographical distribution of A. algirus and the North African distribution of P. aethiopicus. We also used climatic niche modelling to make inferences about their evolutionary history. Low genetic diversity was recovered in both species. While no phylogeographic pattern was found in P. aethiopicus, two haplogroups were identified within A. algirus. This could be explained by the fact that continuous high or moderate climatic suitability occurred throughout most of the Saharan desert since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) for the first species, while during the LGM there were several disconnected areas of high climatic suitability for A. algirus: one in South-West Morocco, one at the coastal Moroccan-Algerian border and one in Tunisia-coastal Libya. Our genetic results confirm that A. algirus recently colonized Spain, Balearic and Canary Islands, and that this colonization was probably mediated by humans. Suitable climatic conditions occurred throughout most of the Southern and Eastern Iberian Peninsula during the last 6,000 years which could have favored the spatial expansion of the Algerian hedgehog after its arrival in Europe. According to our molecular results subspecific recognition within North Africa is unwarranted for both species.

Evaluating Recent and Future Climatic Suitability for the Cultivation of Norway Spruce in the Czech Republic in Comparison with Observed Tree Cover Loss between 2001 and 2020

The high portion of secondary Norway spruce in Central European forests constitutes a major problem because a significant part of these forests is moving further away from their original bioclimatic envelope. The precise evaluation and prediction of climatic suitability are needed for the implementation of forest adaptation strategies. We evaluated climatic suitability for the cultivation of Norway spruce in the Czech Republic forests, making use of the Random Forest combined learning statistical method. The evaluation presented was based on a comparison with the climatic normal period 1961–1990; change analysis was carried out for the period 1991–2014 and projected for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. We found that suitable conditions for Norway spruce will remain only in 11.3% by area of Czech forests in the period 2041–2060 vs. 46.0% in the period 1961–1990. We also compared tree cover loss data (using Global Forest Watch) from 2001 to 2020 with statistics on salvage logging. In the period, the cover loss affected 19.5% of the area with more than 30% Norway spruce. The relationships between relative tree cover loss and the percentage of salvage logging caused by insects were conclusive and statistically significant.

The Potential for Future Shifts in Tree Species Distribution Provided by Dispersal and Ecological Niches: A Comparison between Beech and Oak in Europe

(1) Due to global warming, distribution ranges of temperate tree species are shifting northwards and upslope to cooler areas. Shifts in distribution first become visible through changes in regeneration dynamics. However, the future distribution of tree species in the face of rapid climate change depends not only on the climatic suitability of the tree species, but also on its ability to disperse into new habitats. The aim of the study was therefore to examine how the distribution of European beech and European oak shifts and how species can spread from fragmented seed trees. (2) In order to investigate the shift in distribution of beech and oak, the bioclimatic envelopes of the old trees and different size classes of the natural regeneration were compared. Subsequently, a simulation of the potential distribution for the present climate, as well as for the climate for the reference period 2091–2100, for three different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios was determined. In order to determine which of these areas can actually be colonised, a dispersal potential for the species was determined using a quantile regression, taking habitat fragmentation into account. (3) The results of the present study demonstrate range shifts of the tree species regeneration distribution (B0, B1 and B2) compared to the overstorey distribution (OST). While oak regeneration shows an expansion of its distribution in the cold-wet range, beech regeneration shows a reduction of its distribution in the dry-warm range. As the dispersal potential of oak exceeds that of beech, it is expected that oak will be better able to spread from fragmented seed trees. However, the results also indicate that many areas, despite climatic suitability, cannot be colonised due to too large dispersal distances. (4) For the forest management, this results in an important planning tool for future tree species composition, as climatic suitability, habitat connectivity and dispersal ability are taken into account.

Past, present, and future climate space of the only endemic vertebrate genus of the Italian peninsula

The two extant Salamandrina species represent a unique case of morphology, ecology, and ethology among urodeles. The range of this genus is currently limited to Italy, where it represents the only endemic vertebrate genus, but its past range extended over a much broader area of Europe, including the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas. ENM analyses using modern occurrences of Salamandrina demonstrate that the current climate of the majority of Europe, and especially areas where fossils of this genus were found, is currently not suitable for this genus, neither was it suitable during the last 3.3 million years. This result allows possible assumptions about the climatic influence on the former extirpation of this salamander from several areas of Europe. Furthermore, it shows that, during Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic oscillations, Mediterranean peninsulas, despite being generally considered together because of similar latitude, had different potential to effectively become glacial refugia for this salamander, and possibly for other species as well. Future projections using different CO2 emission scenarios predict that climatic suitability will be even more drastically reduced during the next 50 years, underlining once more the importance of conservation strategies and emission-reducing policies.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of High Temperature Disaster to Kiwifruit in Shaanxi Province, China

In recent years, the main kiwifruit producing region, central-south Shaanxi Province, has often suffered from the threat of extreme high temperatures. Assessing the risk of high-temperature disasters in the region is essential for the rational planning of agricultural production and the development of resilience measures. In this study, a database was established to assess the risk of a high-temperature disaster to kiwifruit. Then, four aspects, hazard, vulnerability, exposure and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, were taken into account and 19 indexes were selected to make an assessment of the risk of a high-temperature disaster. At the same time, 16 indexes were selected for the assessment of the climatic suitability of kiwifruit in terms of light, heat, water, soil and topography, and were used as one of the indexes for exposure assessment. The analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weighting method were combined to solve the weights for each index. The results reveal that: (1) The Guanzhong Plain has a high climatic suitability for kiwifruit, accounting for 15.14% of the study area. (2) The central part of the study area and southern Shaanxi are at high risk, accounting for 22.7% of the study area. The major kiwifruit producing areas in Shaanxi Province (e.g., Baoji) are at a low risk level, which is conducive to the development of the kiwifruit industry. Our study is the first to provide a comprehensive assessment of the risk of a high-temperature disaster to the economic fruit kiwifruit, providing a reference for disaster resilience and mitigation.